Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Through 72 hours the 12z UKIE looked pretty juicy. Anybody know what happens there after? On the meteocentre website, the precip field only goes up to 72 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Through 72 hours the 12z UKIE looked pretty juicy. Anybody know what happens there after? On the meteocentre website, the precip field only goes up to 72 hours.. link please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 link please. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=000&map=na〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=000&map=na〈=en Thanks. Ewall site doesn't have QPF for the UKIE beyond 48 hours. Without phasing or the southern wave amplifying by some other means, there's no way for that juice in the OV to be transported up to us. Graze job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That's my call too. Maybe a tad more if there's lake enhancement involved. I'm going 2-4" in Toronto, with that falling over an extended period of time. I'm feeling a bit more optimistic with this one. First call, 2.5-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 What doesn't make sense (besides that we're getting screwed yet again)? I believe Gilbert posted about discrepancies in the models across the Pacific just a few hours out, earlier on. The major problem we have here is the progressiveness of the pattern. Such a pattern may yield a storm outta the Gulf but other factors you would typically see in such formations are hard to come by. Sure we have cold air but its useless if a decent storm aint in the picture. However, as you already know we've seen alot of problems with timing, moisture, etc on the models even 24 hours out. That storm at the end of November wasn't even shown as being an Apps runner until the 3-5 day window. We'll have to see what happens through the next 1-2 days and see if any changes do occur when the storm becomes sampled. Edit: And yeah i agree with your post about the Ukie....do we ever not get screwed? -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 You need to charge your phone Yes, yes I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 There's room for change once the key features get into the RAOB network but we're gonna need something profound to turn this into something huge. Maybe it can turn into like a 6-9" deal if things trend better but I'm not sure the ceiling is higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm feeling a bit more optimistic with this one. First call, 2.5-5". For now, I like 1.5-2.5". Thats my call. Its painful knowing that 2-3 days ago, it showed 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I believe Gilbert posted about discrepancies in the models across the Pacific just a few hours out, earlier on. The major problem we have here is the progressiveness of the pattern. Such a pattern may yield a storm outta the Gulf but other factors you would typically see in such formations are hard to come by. Sure we have cold air but its useless if a decent storm aint in the picture. However, as you already know we've seen alot of problems with timing, moisture, etc on the models even 24 hours out. That storm at the end of November wasn't even shown as being an Apps runner until the 3-5 day window. We'll have to see what happens through the next 1-2 days and see if any changes do occur when the storm becomes sampled. Edit: And yeah i agree with your post about the Ukie....do we ever not get screwed? -_- I think the spatial location of the two shortwaves is going to be determinative. With the confluent flow downstream and that kicker s/w coming into AK/Northern BC around 84 hours, it's going to be almost impossible to get the southern stream wave to slow down so that the northern wave can catch up and interact with it. Not too often are we going to get a good snowstorm with a huge area of depressed heights over Labrador/Davis Strait. That's 2009-10 in a nutshell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Good news for YYZ is that the EURO still turns the winds to 90 degrees. You can actually see the lake band delineated in the QPF plots. In fact, most of the synoptic misses us to the south. Not going to throw out any numbers if everything is riding on LES. It's way too early anyways, and especially so with LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Sounds like the euro is somewhat like the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think the spatial location of the two shortwaves is going to be determinative. With the confluent flow downstream and that kicker s/w coming into AK/Northern BC around 84 hours, it's going to be almost impossible to get the southern stream wave to slow down so that the northern wave can catch up and interact with it. Not too often are we going to get a good snowstorm with a huge area of depressed heights over Labrador/Davis Strait. That's 2009-10 in a nutshell. +1 The progressiveness in the overall pattern is pushing the southern stream far faster than you would typically see in a "normal" pattern. I mean how many times have we seen such a similar situation only to materialize into nothing in the end, in recent years? Only way we can see a more phased solution is if the southern stream slows down or the northern stream speeds up. Still have a few days for things to turn around but like Hoosier said, it would have to be huge. Dont remind me about 09-10... Well time to hit the books for another exam tomorrow so i can watch the leafs game later on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I set the over/under at Pi inches. And took the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 under^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 For now, I like 1.5-2.5". Thats my call. Its painful knowing that 2-3 days ago, it showed 10-12" I think we in Toronto have to be realistic. Remember that the storm on February 8th was one of the biggest synoptic snowstorms to hit the downtown Toronto area since the Second World War, with only 1944, 1966, 1992 and 1999 ranking up with it. 10-12" snowfalls are rare in Toronto. The models always show us getting a lot of snow - especially the NAM - only to have them back off as the system gets closer. I'm going with 2" with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 So dtx going with 2-4"//// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 So dtx going with 2-4"//// good call for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 good call for them Ill take it! Better thn nothing! Another thing we should keep an eye on is ratios. Temps look to be in the low 20s during most of the storm, so that could help.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ill take it! Better thn nothing! Another thing we should keep an eye on is ratios. Temps look to be in the low 20s during most of the storm, so that could help.. Virga at the onset usually an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think we in Toronto have to be realistic. Remember that the storm on February 8th was one of the biggest synoptic snowstorms to hit the downtown Toronto area since the Second World War, with only 1944, 1966, 1992 and 1999 ranking up with it. 10-12" snowfalls are rare in Toronto. The models always show us getting a lot of snow - especially the NAM - only to have them back off as the system gets closer. I'm going with 2" with this one. Still kicking myself for being out of town for that one. Hoping I get a second chance eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 decent chance the NAM will take a baby step north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Virga at the onset usually an issue. Yeah that can be an issue...let's hope we saturate quickly! I think we got a decent snow storm on the way. We still got three days to go and lots can change in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nam is wetter for sure..espc for the O/V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 When my friends and family ask me how much snow are going to get with a potential bigger snowfall I'm just going to say...2-4" can't lose safe play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Looks like Monroe might be jackpot for a change?! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Great run for LAF...slower/north at 500...decent defo like feature. hoosier should like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 When my friends and family ask me how much snow are going to get with a potential bigger snowfall I'm just going to say...2-4" can't lose safe play. LMAO... Look at the low placement on the nam and prcp? It seems like its off..no prcp to the N/W, all to the east of the main low. Also no secondary until hr84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nam is wetter for sure..espc for the O/V Agree, but also looks to be on the slightly warmer side as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 2-4" with 10:1 ratios and we'll be closer to 20:1, so 3-6" seems a good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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