Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 wpc disco on preferences for the cutoff... Quote MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD150 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013...CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST REACHING THEFOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY...FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF/ECMWFENSEMBLE MEANFORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHERE IS CURRENTLY A COMPACT UPPER LOW SPINNING WELL OFF THE COASTOF SOUTHERN CA WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE SHORTRANGE PERIOD WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH 13/1200Z. THROUGH THE FIRST 36HOURS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z UKMET/GEFS MEAN ARE A TAD FASTERWITH THE CLOSED LOW WHILE THE 00Z CMC/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWERTHAN THE MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTIONS. THE MULTI-DAY SPAGHETTI TRENDSSUGGEST SLOWER IS THE WAY TO GO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 6:41 AM, IthielZ said: I'd be in heaven. Don't get me wrong, I love quick hitters too that drop big accumulations in 6-8 hour timeframes, but I'd much rather have 6 inches spread out over 2 days than 8 inches in 4 or 5 hours and the fun is all over. Different strokes for different folks I guess. Long duration light/moderate snowfalls just don't get my adrenaline running like, say, what happened in Philadelphia on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 There are two things I'm not seeing that we would typically see if the big snowstorm threat was real. 1. The DGEX remains flat/unphased (whereas typically we would see super amped/phased weenie runs by now). 2. None of the GFS ensembles (except 1 or 2) show anything close to what the GFS OP and GGEM show. Bonus: We haven't seen a GGEM run that bombs this out to 988mb over Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 bomb chances are pretty much zero, especially for the western portion of the sub. As long as the euro maintains a minor event it will be worth watching but my interest is certainly not what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It will also be interesting to see how fast/strong the replacement ULL develops off the SW coast after our's comes ashore....this could play a role in added moisture feed from the pacific it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 3:06 PM, Powerball said: There are two things I'm not seeing that we would typically see if the big snowstorm threat was real. 1. The DGEX remains flat/unphased (whereas typically we would see super amped/phased weenie runs by now). 2. None of the GFS ensembles (except 1 or 2) show anything close to what the GFS OP and GGEM show. Bonus: We haven't seen a GGEM run that bombs this out to 988mb over Lake Huron. 2 - 4" or 3 - 6" take it and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 5:50 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Damn, you can really see the LES potential off Lk Ontario. Oh my gosh. That looks amazing for Toronto. Wow. Has Toronto ever had a London,ON-esque LES dump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 12Z GFS going with a spread the wealth scenario for the subforum..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 3:41 PM, WestCoaster said: Oh my gosh. That looks amazing for Toronto. Wow. Has Toronto ever had a London,ON-esque LES dump? Not in my lifetime that I recall. The closest would have been January 26-27, 2004 when there was a narrow strip of 18"+ from about Humber Bay-South Etobicoke-South Mississauga-East Oakville. Amounts really dropped off north and south of that stripe. Pearson had 13", downtown had 11" and by the time you got up to Markham it was <6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 sit and spin action giving Michigan a lot of action as the transfer is ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 already terrible consistency at 500 between 6z and 12z by 12z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:00 PM, Gilbertfly said: 12Z GFS going with a spread the wealth scenario for the subforum..... looks pretty junky IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:11 PM, A-L-E-K said: looks pretty junky IMO southern/southeast WI look good this run with the long duration fetch off the lake + synoptic snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Pretty nice up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:15 PM, Thundersnow12 said: southern/southeast WI look good this run with the long duration fetch off the lake + synoptic snows. yeah, that's going to jump around a lot...timing issues seem pretty major at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:19 PM, A-L-E-K said: yeah, that's going to jump around a lot...timing issues seem pretty major at this point. yeah...will be interested to see when euro moves the ULL onshore in the SW vs. the GFS.....history says it should be a little slower than the GFS...but that doesn't really help resolve anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm liking the consistency on at least a 6 incher for SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Over/under 6.2" total snowfall with clipper and this system at ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks like this is almost a Miller A now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Even more how there is less action on the complaint forum !!! The forecast looks white and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:27 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Over/under 6.2" total snowfall with clipper and this system at ORD? I am thinking this will trend stronger/slower. I am taking a solid over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:27 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Over/under 6.2" total snowfall with clipper and this system at ORD? Tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:27 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Over/under 6.2" total snowfall with clipper and this system at ORD? over (2.5 for clipper 8+ for this system) EDIT: I will add this before people think I am nuts.... either way you slice it...this system has a fairly decent setup for prolonged lake enhancement...whether it ends up being a little better phase then depicted now (which I think will happen) or its a messy phase/transfer situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Temps look to be quite cold with this system as well, would expect to see some pretty good ratios. -10C (14F) at the surface for YYZ during the height of the event. Fluffy snow would likely blow around and drift pretty well too. Too early to get excited but the support is growing for a decent event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 6:57 PM, A-L-E-K said: bastardi is not on board On 12/9/2013 at 7:04 PM, A-L-E-K said: I'm mostly joking, he's a weenie On 12/9/2013 at 7:07 PM, Gilbertfly said: I hear ya brother...he's real smart, but biases can get in the way frequently Bastardi actually isn't doing too bad this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:15 PM, Thundersnow12 said: southern/southeast WI look good this run with the long duration fetch off the lake + synoptic snows. Models have been showing this scenario pretty consistently but hard to believe how well we can do with not a very strong low in an unfavorable location under normal circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:40 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Bastardi actually isn't doing too bad this year. Because he finally got lucky with his annual cold and snow calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:38 PM, harrisale said: Temps look to be quite cold with this system as well, would expect to see some pretty good ratios. -10C (14F) at the surface for YYZ during the height of the event. Fluffy snow would likely blow around and drift pretty well too. Too early to get excited but the support is growing for a decent event here. I'm cautiously optimistic about this event. Regardless, this December is a definite improvement over the past two in Toronto, and southern Ontario in general, at least in terms of temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:27 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Over/under 6.2" total snowfall with clipper and this system at ORD? tough call...assuming 3" with the clipper and a potentially generous 3" (final call) with this system, I'll go under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:37 PM, Gilbertfly said: over (2.5 for clipper 8+ for this system) EDIT: I will add this before people think I am nuts.... either way you slice it...this system has a fairly decent setup for prolonged lake enhancement...whether it ends up being a little better phase then depicted now (which I think will happen) or its a messy phase/transfer situation It's way too early to hash out lake details but as modeled, it's a very minor factor for NE IL and yeah, going in for 8+ is a stretch but good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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