Weekend Threat 12/14-12/15

[StatenWx]

That looks way overdone.

[Superstorm93]

That looks way overdone.

 

 

Hi-res maps support it. Miller B loaded with moisture and the temp profile that the ECMWF has, would yield that type of scenario. 

 

EDIT: Aren't posting the paid ECMWF maps strictly forbidden? Like they have been since oh...the beginning of time? 

[Quakertown needs snow]

those maps haven't been very accurate 

[David-LI]

NYC in the 4-6 range according to this map and it doesn't count for mixing issues and rain that would follow after that. I'd love a snowstorm as we'll but that doesn't look like it on this run for NYC.

[Violentweatherfan]

His Facebook page and he was mentioning the euro which does not show a major snowstorm for NYC

Okay, I checked out his blog at accu weather and what I read was to the contrary.....

[David-LI]

Okay, I checked out his blog at accu weather and what I read was to the contrary.....

https://www.facebook.com/MeteoMadness/posts/757099284303783:0

[PB GFI]

Your in a good spot this time bro

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Geez. That's 10-12" of snow for Mount Vernon, NY.

[Zelocita Weather]

84 hr 0z nam looks very cold/south with the weekend storm set-up....

[SnowGoose69]

84 hr 0z nam looks very cold/south with the weekend storm set-up....

 

The only reason I'm not completely sold is the "N squared rule" is only half working right now, the NOGAPS is relatively amped, its not anywhere near the GFS or GEM but its more amped than you'd expect it to be given where the Euro/GFS/GEM are which could still mean the rainy and warm solution is in play....when you take a closer look at the individual GFS 12Z ensembles, 2 of them are completely flat and a miss, and out of the remaining 10 they are roughly split 6-4 in favor of more amped than the Op.  The NAM however tends to be insanely NW with eventual Miller Bs late in its range so to me its a major caution sign to see it so flat at 84 hours.  There is another theory some Mets have that when the NOGAPS is similar to the GEM/Euro/GFS from roughly Day 4 onward it often means those 3 models will all undergo some sort of major shift in the next 48 hours because rarely will the NOGAPS have the same idea they do at that range.

[SnoSki14]

The Nam is quite cold aloft but it's the Nam at 84hrs, not the most accurate model at that range to say the least, though it kind of is gfs like.

There is a ice signal to keep in mind, it will be tough to scour out the cold low level air mass, CAD signal will have to be watched. The number one analog was a strong ice event.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The only reason I'm not completely sold is the "N squared rule" is only half working right now, the NOGAPS is relatively amped, its not anywhere near the GFS or GEM but its more amped than you'd expect it to be given where the Euro/GFS/GEM are which could still mean the rainy and warm solution is in play....when you take a closer look at the individual GFS 12Z ensembles, 2 of them are completely flat and a miss, and out of the remaining 10 they are roughly split 6-4 in favor of more amped than the Op.  The NAM however tends to be insanely NW with eventual Miller Bs late in its range so to me its a major caution sign to see it so flat at 84 hours.  There is another theory some Mets have that when the NOGAPS is similar to the GEM/Euro/GFS from roughly Day 4 onward it often means those 3 models will all undergo some sort of major shift in the next 48 hours because rarely will the NOGAPS have the same idea they do at that range.

 

Basically, the Global models could go from amped to flatter if the NOGAPS agree with them? 

[SnowGoose69]

Basically, the Global models could go from amped to flatter if the NOGAPS agree with them? 

 

Yeah, it happened on an event last winter, I believe in mid January every model had a major storm ejecting out of the Midwest and slamming into an arctic high over the NE, in a span of 2 runs 96 hours out they all lost it and it eventually was a sheared out mess for us though it was a big storm for the Midwest....it was quite possibly the biggest loss of a major storm I ever recall unanimously on the models inside day 5.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Yeah, it happened on an event last winter, I believe in mid January every model had a major storm ejecting out of the Midwest and slamming into an arctic high over the NE, in a span of 2 runs 96 hours out they all lost it and it eventually was a sheared out mess for us though it was a big storm for the Midwest....it was quite possibly the biggest loss of a major storm I ever recall unanimously on the models inside day 5.

 

Could this storm be in one of those situations? 

[White Gorilla]

We need better sampling of the players to be worried or excited.

[Absolute Humidity]

The only reason I'm not completely sold is the "N squared rule" is only half working right now, the NOGAPS is relatively amped, its not anywhere near the GFS or GEM but its more amped than you'd expect it to be given where the Euro/GFS/GEM are which could still mean the rainy and warm solution is in play....when you take a closer look at the individual GFS 12Z ensembles, 2 of them are completely flat and a miss, and out of the remaining 10 they are roughly split 6-4 in favor of more amped than the Op.  The NAM however tends to be insanely NW with eventual Miller Bs late in its range so to me its a major caution sign to see it so flat at 84 hours.  There is another theory some Mets have that when the NOGAPS is similar to the GEM/Euro/GFS from roughly Day 4 onward it often means those 3 models will all undergo some sort of major shift in the next 48 hours because rarely will the NOGAPS have the same idea they do at that range.

Wow, the lowly NOGAPS sure can yield power with its flat Progressive bias.

[Allsnow]

Gfs seems slower this run with the storm

[Allsnow]

Hr 90 light snow

[Allsnow]

Still snow at hr 96 00z Sunday.

[Allsnow]

Hr 99 redevelopment taking over eastern nc. Nw zones still frozen

[Allsnow]

Costal takes over, mid levels flooded with warmth again. Still a solid front end dump

[IsentropicLift]

Big icing problems again NW. Snow maps showing 0 south of Upstate NY

[Superstorm93]

If the GFS trends stronger with the developing coastal low, the outcome should look much more favorable for areas North and West of the city. Still looks like a heavy mix verbatim on this run.

Right now a blend of the ECMWF and the GFS would yield a decent amount of snow with some mixing, then a transition back to snow.

This will obviously change over the next few days and I'd wait until we have our southern system in a decent area for sampling before really getting deep into this one.

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[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Costal takes over, mid levels flooded with warmth again. Still a solid front end dump

 

Icy Conditions? 

[Zir0b]

Based on the low pressure track and position of the high, there's a good chance there's going to be a substantial amount of low level cold that the GFS is currently underestimating. Icestorm potential for areas just outside of the city IMO. 

[Stormlover74]

Icy Conditions?

Surface temps are above freezing the whole time along the coast

[Allsnow]

Icy Conditions?

Yes! Prolong ice north and west. This storm looks very good for sne.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

If the GFS trends stronger with the developing coastal low, the outcome should look much more favorable for areas North and West of the city. Still looks like a heavy mix verbatim on this run.

Right now a blend of the ECMWF and the GFS would yield a decent amount of snow with some mixing, then a transition back to snow.

This will obviously change over the next few days and I'd wait until we have our southern system in a decent area for sampling before really looking getting deep into this one.

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I'm fine with that. That'll make this winter look more promising. I'm doing research about Decembers with a certain amount of snowfall and teleconnection conditions that yields below normal, near normal or above normal snowfall. I'll keep tabs on this December. 

[eduggs]

Not much of a thump on the GFS.  More of a whimper.  But still a period of snow.  And the temps and QPF will be worked out in coming days.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Yes! Prolong ice north and west. This storm looks very good for sne.

 

NNJ into Southern Westchester County and SW CT stay near or below 32F for the entire duration of the storm. So basically, these locations have Snow to Sleet and then a prolonged period of Freezing Rain and then back to snow.