Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hr 120 boom for areas just nw. Costal location taint..but still frozen. 990 just east of acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Real nice run for all, but the best is in sne and nw locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 By 126 it's southeast of Cape May, sub 988mb. Widespread warning criteria snowfall NW of I-95. 4-6" for the city and Long Island. 12"+ for Western Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hour 120 sub 996mb low east of Cape May, NJ. NW areas getting raked by a CCB. NYC south and east mixing or rain. both gfs and euro been trending east , do you believe that it could change to all snow and no mixing issues for the coastal areas considering its going to be so cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I kinda suspected this type of run...indices are rather indicative of a major East Coast frozen precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 If that high had hung on a few hours more this would have been a huge run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 I kinda suspected this type of run...indices are rather indicative of a major East Coast frozen precip event. Agreed, just has the feel of a big hit with this setup. And the cold air mass out ahead of it is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Sounds like front end thump to a taint bomb on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Agreed, just has the feel of a big hit with this setup. And the cold air mass out ahead of it is awesome. You really don't need a -NAO in this kind of setup. That massive PV is acting like a block on its own. We just need to keep the promary further south with more offshore development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 My zoomed in maps show 7" of snow in 6 hours centered over northern NJ. That band then continues to intensify as it travels northeastward dumping 8-10" of snow in 6 hours near eastern MA and then 12"+ in 6 hours over coastal Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 How did lower Hudson valley make out on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I said this morning , it was good to see the models converging on a fresh artic high arriving 24 hours in advance of the system Into New England. Because without a neg NAO not allowing the high to retreat the next best thing is to have early secondary development And capture some drainage of cold air ( as long as u can keep a NE wind ) 2 things. This has been trending our way since yesterday at 0z and it is 5 days out , b cautious. They are only operational model runs. I do like the trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Sounds like front end thump to a taint bomb on the coast. I'll take it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 And to think just a month ago we were all praying for rain, not even snow and now we have had multiple systems to track in the span of 2-3 weeks. This just gives me hope for this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This would be like the 5 or 6th trackable system with at least a trace for most of us already. It is only the 10th of december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 And to think just a month ago we were all praying for rain, not even snow and now we have had multiple systems to track in the span of 2-3 weeks. This just gives me hope for this upcoming winter. The pattern has done a complete 180 over the last several weeks. We are getting a lot more southern stream involvement this year. With the PV on our side of the globe and plenty of cold air, it could be quite an exciting pattern going forward. I still would like to see the Atlantic cooperate more especially after the holidays. All in all not a bad pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Big difference is that yesterday the models had more interaction with the northern stream shortwave resulting in a more phased up wound up system, if you look at the 12z Euro/GFS today the southern s/w really speeds up ahead of the northern stream piece trying to dive in, resulting in more of a dominantly southern stream system. Still though I would lean against this being a major snow for the coast because of a lack of blocking keeping a high pressure system locked in to the north. I think 12z GFS scenario of snow to sleet to zr is more likely for the NYC area, especially just to the N&W/WSW away from the UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nice little day 8 feature from eastern long island into southern New England as well on the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 how much pecip does the EURO show? as well as snow for NW of I-95 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nice little day 8 feature from eastern long island into southern New England as well on the 12z euro yeah, potential on day 8 if that trough goes negative a bit sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Temps are in the teens on Saturday morning on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Temps are in the teens on Saturday morning on the euro if as modeled on the 12z would the surface be below freezing throughout the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nice little day 8 feature from eastern long island into southern New England as well on the 12z euro Please keep that in a separate thread, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Anybody NW of I-95 never makes it above freezing on the 12z Euro and NYC really only goes above freezing for 6 hours, but it's during the height of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Anybody NW of I-95 never makes it above freezing on the 12z Euro and NYC really only goes above freezing for 6 hours, but it's during the height of the event. Can any maps be posted? Any QPF amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Can any maps be posted? Any QPF amounts? I can't but this whole area was in the 6-8"+ range. The city eastward is more of a 4-6" type deal. I think those numbers look on the low side to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I can't but this whole area was in the 6-8"+ range. The city eastward is more of a 4-6" type deal. I think those numbers look on the low side to be honest. Wxbell snow maps look very generous for pretty much everyone in the area, but from what I heard they're usually overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Obviously early but the 15z SREF's have snow into the Poconos by 06z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Notably, on the GFS, wind remains NE...never goes S or SE, meaning warmfront from primary never makes it through the area as coastal takes over. There have been times in the 2000's of having primaries head west of NYC, and coastal front takes over and snow falls instead of mixed bag. The key to the modeling that few have latched onto this early winter season is that the cold has been under-modeled. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I can see the primary low hanging on longer because of the lack of 50-50 low. Hopefully it becomes a trend over several runs that the primary dies soon. And maybe some semblance of blocking/resistance over SE Canada would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hopefully I'm wrong, but I can see the primary low hanging on longer because of the lack of 50-50 low. Hopefully it becomes a trend over several runs that the primary dies soon. And maybe some semblance of blocking/resistance over SE Canada would be awesome. What is this fetish with a 50/50 low as if it's impossible to get a big snowstorm without one? The positioning of the arctic jet is doing all the dirty work here. Would it be nice to have something to lock in that high better? Yes, but then you start to walk the fine line of suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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