Zir0b Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 12z GGEM looks pretty similiar to the GFS. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Not really, the GGEM has a much stronger primary low. Would drive out the low level cold pretty quickly for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The GGEM is nowhere near as good as the GFS 75 miles or more east and this will make LOTS of weenies happy. The trends are our friend thus far. Going to be exciting this week with tracking this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean is awful. Doesn't develop the coastal until it's way passed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean is awful. Doesn't develop the coastal until it's way passed us. The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh. We will have more clarity....hopefully by thursday as to what to expect from this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 GGEM isn't bad for far NW areas but the coast flips to rain fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean is awful. Doesn't develop the coastal until it's way passed us. That's what I would expect as of now. This is one for the upper Midwest and maybe NNE- the typical Nina snow zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 That's what I would expect as of now. This is one for the upper Midwest and maybe NNE- the typical Nina snow zones. I highly disagree. The Euro will tell us more shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z Ukie for this weekend. Looks nice =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z Ukie for this weekend. Looks nice =) That looks pretty good ant. Now we just need the euro and gfs to get some cold solutions these next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z Ukie for this weekend. Looks nice =) It looks like the primary low cuts to our west first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It looks like the primary low cuts to our west first. That's the problem. We need it to transfer further south if we want to see a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 EPO/WPO/NAO/PNA indicate a decent shot of wintry precip for I95 PHL to BOS for around 12/15 with another shot coming around 12/19. Regardless of model output, pattern has to be ripe. PNA rises rapidly to near neutral around 12/15 while NAO also nears neutral. EPO remains negative, but takes a second dip around 12/16. There are indications that the pattern collapses in time for Christmas...possibly mild weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z GFS is all frozen for NYC - snow to sleet to freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z GFS is all frozen for NYC - snow to sleet to freezing rain Yeah not really worth looking too far into it but it would be a warning criteria ice storm verbatim for a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 euro will run soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 euro will run soon It's running now. Out to hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It's running now. Out to hour 90. hows it looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 The Euro is really cold, lows in the lower teens in NYC on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 hows it looking? We'll know soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 hows it looking? It's looks good for some nice overrunning. We should get more snow this run then 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hour 102 snow approaching the area from the SW. Primary over Western KY. Some signs of a secondary in NE GA. 1036mb high west of Maine holding on pretty good. I think this is going to be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Notably, on the GFS, wind remains NE...never goes S or SE, meaning warmfront from primary never makes it through the area as coastal takes over. There have been times in the 2000's of having primaries head west of NYC, and coastal front takes over and snow falls instead of mixed bag. The key to the modeling that few have latched onto this early winter season is that the cold has been under-modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hr 102 light snow into area. This is a colder run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Pretty classic for very significant East Coast snowstorms. The Euro is really cold, lows in the lower teens in NYC on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hour 108 Primary still over the Ohio Valley, secondary popping over the eastern Carolinas. High is starting to slide east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Transfer going on at 108. Going to be a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Snow up to central New England by hour 108. The temp is still in the 20's for this whole area at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hr 114 heavy snow. Costal has taken over. 100mb east of Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hour 114 boom. Classic Miller B. Primary is already dead. The coast is going to have mixing issues though as you can already see the surface temps warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hour 120 sub 996mb low east of Cape May, NJ. NW areas getting raked by a CCB. NYC south and east mixing or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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