NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Surface appears colder this run. Nam thermal profiles may be correct due to higher resolution. that spells icing problems in some areas - I do believe with the strong HP to the north that low level cold and the warm advection there will be a strip of real estate that is going to see one heck of an ice storm on top of snow cover from this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Really all models are converging on a stronger coastal near or just inside the B/M and more precip overall. Front end over-running is looking more impressive each run as well, where now it appears all north of the M/D will get a good thump. So long as we manage a decent front end thump I think I'll be happy with the result. It's good to see at least the models are continuing to advertise a good front end snow threat even while trending towards a stronger coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Interesting to see the NAM join the RGEM/CMC idea of the surface low redeveloping much farther south. This goes back to the polar trough which we were all discussing days ago. The slightly more compressed height field to the north forces the development farther south. Instead of tucking in near the coast, the low can slip a bit eastward or the more northerly/tucked in solutions of the GFS and ECMWF. This pays off with the 925mb low redeveloping farther south as well -- especially north of Trenton. The redevelopment essentially serves to cut off the warm tongue aloft until the heavier precipitation is over. One has to at least wonder momentarily if the CMC and NAM are on to something given the progressive nature of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Something to keep an eye on.... these precip rates aren't all that intense, and by the time the mid level warm air punch begins to occur, the risk is there that the precip rates may be tranquil enough for some areas to receive non accumulating white rain. The risk area here would be from EPA thru central NJ as the coastal takes over. Agree this could be a problem during the transfer of energy, and every model seems to be waffling between showing this. On the flip side, the models which show the stronger WAA precip have a nice RH dry slot in the mid levels right as things warm up. So we could see some areas get a thump of snow followed by a changeover and essentially just freezing drizzle or rain thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Interesting to see the NAM join the RGEM/CMC idea of the surface low redeveloping much farther south. This goes back to the polar trough which we were all discussing days ago. The slightly more compressed height field to the north forces the development farther south. Instead of tucking in near the coast, the low can slip a bit eastward or the more northerly/tucked in solutions of the GFS and ECMWF. This pays off with the 925mb low redeveloping farther south as well -- especially north of Trenton. The redevelopment essentially serves to cut off the warm tongue aloft until the heavier precipitation is over. One has to at least wonder momentarily if the CMC and NAM are on to something given the progressive nature of the pattern. I read in the N.E. forum that feedback may have contributed to the NAM run lurching the low east at 18z, which makes sense to me given the blob of convection developing late in the run and subsequent eastward lurch. But hopefully as you said the earlier re-development and the thermals are onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Interesting to see the NAM join the RGEM/CMC idea of the surface low redeveloping much farther south. This goes back to the polar trough which we were all discussing days ago. The slightly more compressed height field to the north forces the development farther south. Instead of tucking in near the coast, the low can slip a bit eastward or the more northerly/tucked in solutions of the GFS and ECMWF. This pays off with the 925mb low redeveloping farther south as well -- especially north of Trenton. The redevelopment essentially serves to cut off the warm tongue aloft until the heavier precipitation is over. One has to at least wonder momentarily if the CMC and NAM are on to something given the progressive nature of the pattern. Excellent post. I'd have to agree with you. The NAM has done quite well with the last two events, and I still think the models are underdoing the cold air (especially considering the snow pack). I think we will see a consensus form towards the southern track; I could see the models tick a bit more south before this trend is over. I am really interested in seeing if the 0z NAM holds serve tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm about five miles north of Monticello, NY (in the Catskills). The local prediction is now 5-8" of snow by Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm about five miles north of Monticello, NY (in the Catskills). The local prediction is now 5-8" of snow by Saturday night. Welcome! Nice to finally see all the NW weenies coming out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 If you between 195 and 78 , and east across Long Island this has kind a slipped away , lucky for us its 2 inches of snow goin to rain so there s no icing issue . West of 287 and N of 80 and points N could be a really nice show .You guys in the Hudson Valley and Western CT , should max out on this board . While it may well be 19 in Sparta with Heavy Snow EWR maybe 40 , pretty cool gradient across NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 If you between 195 and 78 , and east across Long Island this has kind a slipped away , lucky for us its 2 inches of snow goin to rain so there s no icing issue . West of 287 and N of 80 and points N could be a really nice show .You guys in the Hudson Valley and Western CT , should max out on this board . While it may well be 19 in Sparta with Heavy Snow EWR maybe 40 , pretty cool gradient across NJ I'm expecting some high ratios up here... Looks like the high for Saturday by won't get out of the low 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Agreed. People don't realize that the areas of precip involved in this system are not going to be very intense. Its awfully hard to determine that this far out, I agree the higher Res models such as the NAM and RGEM are showing signs its a raggedy precip shield from 12-20Z or so but this far out they cannot really detect any potential banding areas and they also could be overestimating dry air/high pressure impacts much like they did with the last system at this range...to me the jet dynamics and forcing at 500mb is stronger with the WAA wave than last weekend's storm so, even if there is some confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 18z GFS continues with the around 0Z changeover for JFK after front end 2" snow but ups rainfall after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Well those further N&W who missed out before will cash in nicely with this, but it may not be a complete loss around the city and immediate burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice... Yeah you are def in the Mid- HV family! We also have a NW thread as well not sure if you know[/Good to see other Dutchess folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 After two back to back snowstorms in PA, it'll be awesome to come home to another one this weekend in NJ 430 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERNCONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ONSATURDAY WILL EMERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAYNIGHT...AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON SUNDAY. THE LOW COULDBRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME...AND POSSIBLE A GLAZEOF ICE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO INLAND SECTIONS.THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED INLAND NORTHWEST OF NEWYORK CITY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Per meteograms 18z GFS has 11-12mm LE snow vs 9-10mm LE snow from 12z. Fits in nicely with the NAM for about 0.5 LE falling as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Its awfully hard to determine that this far out, I agree the higher Res models such as the NAM and RGEM are showing signs its a raggedy precip shield from 12-20Z or so but this far out they cannot really detect any potential banding areas and they also could be overestimating dry air/high pressure impacts much like they did with the last system at this range...to me the jet dynamics and forcing at 500mb is stronger with the WAA wave than last weekend's storm so, even if there is some confluence. Great point, in our recent pattern we have been experiencing some pretty strung out weak systems. It appears as though some of the models are hinting towards a potentially stronger coastal system more in line with some of our classic noreasters (though less intense this go around). It was noted days ago that teleconnections would be consistent with a more robust LP system this time around. It will have to be monitored very closely the exact strength of the eventual coastal system as that will provide for much more intense banding features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Have to keep an eye on the banding situation as we get closer to the event. GFS has some pretty robust 700mb VVELs over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Funny how yesterday we were hoping the nam was wrong and globals were right and right now is the opposite. Hopefully the 00z nam will bring everyone a nice snowstorm. Get ready for the weeniefest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41972-december-14-15-winter-storm-part-two/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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