Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 something to watch out for according to the 18z NAM, Initial WAA precip/snow band is really focused on SNJ, wonder if they're in store for a surprise similar to what happened last weekend (not to the same degree of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Absolutely, wanna trade places? I feel as though your area and back into NW NJ then up into SNE do very well with this system. I can still see the warmer air making a plunge into your zone, however, most of the precip should be over by then. yea i was thinking on the order of 5-8 inches.. might be harder to get more than that with the way the models are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 something to watch out for according to the 18z NAM, Initial WAA precip/snow band is really focused on SNJ, wonder if they're in store for a surprise similar to what happened last weekend (not to the same degree of course) This system is primed to have surprises (good and bad) as there are very intricate interactions occurring where a few miles displacement can yield big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 western union/essex counties should stay below freezing through the entire event imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I am up in Ossining, NY... about 35-40 miles North of NYC. I am thinking I should fair pretty well, would you agree? When you say NYC do you mean Manhattan or the Bronx? You def are not 35-40 from the Bronx. Probably 20 miles from the Bronx, 30 from Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Where are you located? Mid HV, Duchess Cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 yea i was thinking on the order of 5-8 inches.. might be harder to get more than that with the way the models are now. I would think that your expectations are reasonable. Limiting factor for your area would be how the coastal sets up and do you get under the intense banding from that before it pulls away (it seems as though EPA, SEPA, portions of NJ run the risk of the classic Miller B jump in the precip field by the time the coastal cranks), if memory serves me correctly NENJ and NEwrd from there seem to make out quite well often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 45 18z gfs light snow in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Something to keep an eye on.... these precip rates aren't all that intense, and by the time the mid level warm air punch begins to occur, the risk is there that the precip rates may be tranquil enough for some areas to receive non accumulating white rain. The risk area here would be from EPA thru central NJ as the coastal takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 When you say NYC do you mean Manhattan or the Bronx? You def are not 35-40 from the Bronx. Probably 20 miles from the Bronx, 30 from Manhattan No i am referring to Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Agreed. People don't realize that the areas of precip involved in this system are not going to be very intense. Something to keep an eye on.... these precip rates aren't all that intense, and by the time the mid level warm air punch begins to occur, the risk is there that the precip rates may be tranquil enough for some areas to receive non accumulating white rain. The risk area here would be from EPA thru central NJ as the coastal takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 51 steady snow…surface south of 95…850's below mason dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Mid HV, Duchess Cty. Nice... Yeah you are def in the Mid- HV family! We also have a NW thread as well not sure if you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 54 the snow/ice line looks to be around ttn….decent precept in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 57 rain/snow line around ttn…city and immediate suburbs are sleet/frz rain….looks like this ail tuck into the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 60 is heavy rain central nj….surface is just west of 95…thats a nasty ice storm for someone…hr 63 looks like city goes back to ice... 7am sunday its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 good amount of moisture from the coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 snow maps from sv have 2-4 from ttn-nyc 4-6 i-78 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Its a very wet run also..1+ for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Its a very wet run also..1+ for everyone what about the LHV, because NCEP takes forever and I can not see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 That's borderline heavy ZR at hour 60 from about Passaic County NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 After looking closely it is actually slightly colder than 12z (I mean slight) but has a stronger coastal with more overall precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Surface appears colder this run. Nam thermal profiles may be correct due to higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It has to be interesting that the GFS is wetter than the NAM. Typically you see it the opposite way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 what about the LHV, because NCEP takes forever and I can not see it 1.00+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Surface appears colder this run. Nam thermal profiles may be correct due to higher resolution. I don't think you'll have to go far into Westchester County or west into NJ to stay below freezing through the storm. That is, again, as long as ESE winds don't extend inland too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Something to keep an eye on.... these precip rates aren't all that intense, and by the time the mid level warm air punch begins to occur, the risk is there that the precip rates may be tranquil enough for some areas to receive non accumulating white rain. The risk area here would be from EPA thru central NJ as the coastal takes over. what other Met or Forecasting service is saying this? - I disagree anyone north of the mason dixon line will get some accumulation - including the boardwalks and beaches - problem is it is difficult to forecast exact amounts this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Really all models are converging on a stronger coastal near or just inside the B/M and more precip overall. Front end over-running is looking more impressive each run as well, where now it appears all north of the M/D will get a good thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You can see on the 18z NAM and GFS the 925mb low track. The NAM is very favorable for all or mostly frozen while the GFS is not. NAM tracks the 925mb low just to the SE of LI, while the GFS has it crossing right on top of us or even slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS upped snow amounts for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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