JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Let's hope that the surface track is closer to the coast, the 4k NAM radar is less than impressive on land. Let's hope that the surface track is closer to the coast, the 4k NAM radar is less than impressive on land. That's where the good and the bad with quicker more robust development of the coastal come into play, basically my feeling all along was that we'd do best to get the most out of the WAA and not the coastal, the coastal unless deep enough will usher in warmer air, and "suck" the precip field towards it. Leaving the classic Miller B dry spell zone somewhere in between... according to the NAM sim Reflec it's right over my house lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Per the 18z NAM looks like the 'screw zone' between the primary and the coastal is E/C PA (basically all of NJ is saved by coastal precip along with a little from the original over-running). But someone will be stuck in the dry zone where the energy skips over....must be watched. Verbatim the NAM is 4-8" of snow followed by ice/sleet for a lot of the metro west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think it's the confluence. Folks are looking at 6 hr QPF increments and totaling them up and throwing numbers around. A) I suspect that it's going to move in and move out quickly, especially the first batch of precip (likely a few inches of snow) during the transfer, there's going to be a void well organized precip, likely a typical showery regimen of mix batch for much of NJ; a potential deformation area may set up for eastern Upstate NY which then yields to nice snows for much of New England. Anytime you see 0.35 to 0.5 QPF's for south central PA, you have to figure that a system is not going to be too impressive especially with the transfer. Exactly, I'm very worried about Central NJ southward in terms of QPF. You are so right about PA, normally SEPA gets clocked in these setups one way or the other, and the SIM reflec and QPF amounts are very worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 To further elaborate on what I said -- a stronger low that is interacting with the ULL coming down the Plains WILL win out over the confluence that's too far east...but if that interaction were to die down somewhat, I think the low would be weaker and the confluence would shear it out... And yeah, we had some -NAO periods prior to this, but the huge classic blocking pattern actually has not been seen for a while. All of the blocking has been focused in the NE Pacific for the past several months. Hopefully we can get some more blocking later in the winter, but I'm a bit unsure in that department. Bluewave has posted some analogs which show a bit of promise down the road -- but regardless this winter should have a mainly positive NAO and AO. thanks for the clarification - we definitely need a sheared out/weaker system to avoid a quicker changeover to rain. To play DA - once we get a favorable atlantic the EPO and pacific will go to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Mt. Holly just issued their first maps. I'm shocked at the forecasted ZR amounts. Only 1-2" with no ZR? Seems a tad conservative, I think 2-4" is more probable with maybe a tenth of an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks good to me. WSW should be up eventually Map looks good to me. I'd be very happy if anyone in the city or coast received more than 3" of snow with this. 2-3" is what I'd go with for the south shore areas. Maybe 3" at Central Park. I don't think anyone south/east of I-287 has a shot at 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 HV looks to do good on NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 thanks for the clarification - we definitely need a sheared out/weaker system to avoid a quicker changeover to rain. To play DA - once we get a favorable atlantic the EPO and pacific will go to crap. That's what I've been saying all along-people shouldn't want a wrapped up, tucked in low, even well inland unless you're a fan of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That's what I've been saying all along-people shouldn't want a wrapped up, tucked in low, even well inland unless you're a fan of ice. Exactly, unless well removed from the coast, your best bet comes with the initial overrunning and not from the coastal. A weaker LP system running up the edges of a SE ridge with no blocking spells disaster for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NWS Buffalo just dropped WWA's for their zones. They obviously wanted to be early to the party, so they can leave early for the real party (lake effect thereafter). Clearly, they aren't too impressed with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NWS Buffalo just dropped WWA's for their zones. They obviously wanted to be early to the party, so they can leave early for the real party (lake effect thereafter). Clearly, they aren't too impressed with this system. Hopefully what they drop, we pick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hopefully what they drop, we pick up Looks based on the map like advisories for western Suffolk, Nassau, NYC and southern Westchester and CT coast, and warnings northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 HV looks to do good on NAM run. Yes we do quite well on the 18z NAM... At the height of the event most of us here in Orange County are still in the mid teens.. Thats some potent cold air. Hopefully early on we can benefit from good snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks based on the map like advisories for western Suffolk, Nassau, NYC and southern Westchester and CT coast, and warnings northwest. And I would definitely agree with that. Advisories also for central and SNJ... possibly warnings NW corner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks good to me. WSW should be up eventually Going by Uptons map & Mt Hollys it looks like they both start to sneak in the 8-10" mark for Sussex & Orange counties. Love the trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yep. I expect the very climo-typical Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer counties with WWA. Warnings for Warren, Sussex, Morris counties. Pretty text book. 1-3 for WWA counties; 4-8 for WSW counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Going by Uptons map & Mt Hollys it looks like they both start to sneak in the 8-10" mark for Sussex & Orange counties. Love the trend.. The trend is your friend.... certainly not mine though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yep. I expect the very climo-typical Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer counties with WWA. Warnings for Warren, Sussex, Morris counties. Pretty text book. 1-3 for WWA counties; 4-8 for WSW counties. This fits exactly in line with my thinking. Im in Ringoes, in the SE quadrant of Hunterdon County, typically we hold on a bit longer thanks to the Sourland "mountains" climatologically speaking, however the major cutoffs in accums usually happen from Clinton/Annandale SEwrd into my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The trend is your friend.... certainly not mine though lol JetsPens87 where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 JetsPens87 where are you located? Ringoes, NJ which is in the very SE of Hunterdon County. Probably why I am so into weather because for the duration of my life I have been located here and my area truly is a battleground when it comes to these type of events, ALWAYS so fun to see what side of the fence I am going to fall on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ringoes, NJ which is in the very SE of Hunterdon County. oh gotcha, now I understand why you made that comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ah. A good storm at last. snywx, we should be in the jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 oh gotcha, now I understand why you made that comment. It's always trickiest to forecast right around my area. In these events I have seen it be mostly snow and then some very light RA to end, or I've seen us torch unabated and been rain while areas about 15-20 miles north experience +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's always trickiest to forecast right around my area. In these events I have seen it be mostly snow and then some very light RA to end, or I've seen us torch unabated and been rain while areas about 15-20 miles north experience +SN I am up in Ossining, NY... about 35-40 miles North of NYC. I am thinking I should fair pretty well, would you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 allgame: You should be mostly snow, possibly some IP/ZR mixing in. Totals of 4-8 for you, maybe higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yep. I expect the very climo-typical Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer counties with WWA. Warnings for Warren, Sussex, Morris counties. Pretty text book. 1-3 for WWA counties; 4-8 for WSW counties. 18z NAM is pretty much all frozen for all the counties you mentioned. Snow to sleet to a brief period of ZR. 90% of the precip is over by the time it gets above freezing, and the remaining precip would likely be spotty drizzely stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I am up in Ossining, NY... about 35-40 miles North of NYC. I am thinking I should fair pretty well, would you agree? Absolutely, wanna trade places? I feel as though your area and back into NW NJ then up into SNE do very well with this system. I can still see the warmer air making a plunge into your zone, however, most of the precip should be over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 .50" of freezing rain, how bad is that? That is pretty bad. downed power lines, tree limbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That is pretty bad. downed power lines, tree limbs. Oy Vey, NO THANK YOU to .5 FRZA please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ah. A good storm at last. snywx, we should be in the jackpot zone. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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