Weekend Threat 12/14-12/15

[IsentropicLift]

Hour 57 moderate to heavy snow. I-78 corridor getting hammered. 4"+ for everyone already.

[JetsPens87]

It's quite tiresome, I'll say that much.

I agree with this, to a certain extent however I can tolerate a lot of what goes on, on this board. Its entirely human nature for two people to look at the exact same thing (in this case model runs) and see two completely different things. However, my problem comes in where people become emotionally invested in any given particular model run. The bickering over a 5 miles displacement of a rain snow line on an 18z run of the NAM means nothing to me, nor should it to anyone else. This is when the basic science of meteorology has gone by the way side and been replaced by modelology. The models are a WONDERFUL tool don't get me wrong, but any good met will tell you that the course of their studies revolved very lightly on models (outside of synoptic 1 & 2 in my case and even those were light on the models). I think what a lot of posters could benefit here from is reading more of the meteorology 101 forum and taking the time to get into the good ole basics of meteorology and stop becoming emotionally attached to the models.

 

With that said, my thinking is pretty much exactly the same as yesterday, the models are going to do their thing ironing out the mix line and exact track of the low, and that's great that is what they are there for, however, basic met tells me a few things with this system. Regardless of how cold the models are progged, this is VERY highly unlikely an all snow event for I95 corridor. There is a dangerous and unretarded warm punch in the mid levels aimed right for the region. Posters in certain areas wondering if they are going to see rain/snow or some wintry combination thereof would do best to take into account their local climatology (there's a fantastic thought). How often do you see a straight SW to NE rain/snow line (hint: almost never) , there is microclimatology (oh my what's that?) going on, and areas that tend to do well in these setups will likely do well again and areas that the warm air often changes you over, well... you'll likely change over again. My best educated guess would tell me that the true battle ground for where significant accumulations (of snow) drop off would occur from NW Hunterdon through the higher elevations of Morris county up into the Vernon area. Areas from there NW should see a nice snow event from this, though eventually I believe the warmth will even flood in there. However, more often then not especially regarding NJ climatology and past event history, tells me that by the time those areas do experience the warmth that most of the precip would be over (REGARDLESS of what models say), though this entirely depends on the strength and development of the coastal low.

 

I leave you with this, I have been around for many many years on these boards (going back to WWBB), through eastern and registered here the opening days of American wx on my old handle which I have since lost. I've seen many people come and go, great, good and terrible posters of all, and I have not to this point been entirely turned off by the weenieism as of yet, mostly because I LOVE the weather and would be more than happy to talk anyone's ears off that will listen and learn. However, the emotional investment that some take in this science is too much sometimes and those people again would do well to turn the emotions off and love the weather no matter what weather you get

[IsentropicLift]

The coastal looks very strong this run with lots of precip. It's about 50 miles further south emerging off the coast. Heavy snow continues through hr 60.

[IsentropicLift]

The city flips to ZR between hrs 57 and 60, this is going to be an ugly ending.

[Brian5671]

I agree with this, to a certain extent however I can tolerate a lot of what goes on, on this board. Its entirely human nature for two people to look at the exact same thing (in this case model runs) and see two completely different things. However, my problem comes in where people become emotionally invested in any given particular model run. The bickering over a 5 miles displacement of a rain snow line on an 18z run of the NAM means nothing to me, nor should it to anyone else. This is when the basic science of meteorology has gone by the way side and been replaced by modelology. The models are a WONDERFUL tool don't get me wrong, but any good met will tell you that the course of their studies revolved very lightly on models (outside of synoptic 1 & 2 in my case and even those were light on the models). I think what a lot of posters could benefit here from is reading more of the meteorology 101 forum and taking the time to get into the good ole basics of meteorology and stop becoming emotionally attached to the models.

 

With that said, my thinking is pretty much exactly the same as yesterday, the models are going to do their thing ironing out the mix line and exact track of the low, and that's great that is what they are there for, however, basic met tells me a few things with this system. Regardless of how cold the models are progged, this is VERY highly unlikely an all snow event for I95 corridor. There is a dangerous and unretarded warm punch in the mid levels aimed right for the region. Posters in certain areas wondering if they are going to see rain/snow or some wintry combination thereof would do best to take into account their local climatology (there's a fantastic thought). How often do you see a straight SW to NE rain/snow line (hint: almost never) , there is microclimatology (oh my what's that?) going on, and areas that tend to do well in these setups will likely do well again and areas that the warm air often changes you over, well... you'll likely change over again. My best educated guess would tell me that the true battle ground for where significant accumulations (of snow) drop off would occur from NW Hunterdon through the higher elevations of Morris county up into the Vernon area. Areas from there NW should see a nice snow event from this, though eventually I believe the warmth will even flood in there. However, more often then not especially regarding NJ climatology and past event history, tells me that by the time those areas do experience the warmth that most of the precip would be over (REGARDLESS of what models say), though this entirely depends on the strength and development of the coastal low.

 

I leave you with this, I have been around for many many years on these boards (going back to WWBB), through eastern and registered here the opening days of American wx on my old handle which I have since lost. I've seen many people come and go, great, good and terrible posters of all, and I have not to this point been entirely turned off by the weenieism as of yet, mostly because I LOVE the weather and would be more than happy to talk anyone's ears off that will listen and learn. However, the emotional investment that some take in this science is too much sometimes and those people again would do well to turn the emotions off and love the weather no matter what weather you get

AMEN!  Great post.

[IsentropicLift]

Everyone is already in the 4-8" range

[Brian5671]

Good front end dump for most on the NAM

[IsentropicLift]

The coastal is just so much more organized this run it's ridiculous. The moderate snow stretches all the way back to the lakes.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 63 all of northern NJ is freezing rain. The city is sitting right on the surface freezing line. Looks like 20's and moderate precip.

[nyblizz44]

I agree with this, to a certain extent however I can tolerate a lot of what goes on, on this board. Its entirely human nature for two people to look at the exact same thing (in this case model runs) and see two completely different things. However, my problem comes in where people become emotionally invested in any given particular model run. The bickering over a 5 miles displacement of a rain snow line on an 18z run of the NAM means nothing to me, nor should it to anyone else. This is when the basic science of meteorology has gone by the way side and been replaced by modelology. The models are a WONDERFUL tool don't get me wrong, but any good met will tell you that the course of their studies revolved very lightly on models (outside of synoptic 1 & 2 in my case and even those were light on the models). I think what a lot of posters could benefit here from is reading more of the meteorology 101 forum and taking the time to get into the good ole basics of meteorology and stop becoming emotionally attached to the models.

 

With that said, my thinking is pretty much exactly the same as yesterday, the models are going to do their thing ironing out the mix line and exact track of the low, and that's great that is what they are there for, however, basic met tells me a few things with this system. Regardless of how cold the models are progged, this is VERY highly unlikely an all snow event for I95 corridor. There is a dangerous and unretarded warm punch in the mid levels aimed right for the region. Posters in certain areas wondering if they are going to see rain/snow or some wintry combination thereof would do best to take into account their local climatology (there's a fantastic thought). How often do you see a straight SW to NE rain/snow line (hint: almost never) , there is microclimatology (oh my what's that?) going on, and areas that tend to do well in these setups will likely do well again and areas that the warm air often changes you over, well... you'll likely change over again. My best educated guess would tell me that the true battle ground for where significant accumulations (of snow) drop off would occur from NW Hunterdon through the higher elevations of Morris county up into the Vernon area. Areas from there NW should see a nice snow event from this, though eventually I believe the warmth will even flood in there. However, more often then not especially regarding NJ climatology and past event history, tells me that by the time those areas do experience the warmth that most of the precip would be over (REGARDLESS of what models say), though this entirely depends on the strength and development of the coastal low.

 

I leave you with this, I have been around for many many years on these boards (going back to WWBB), through eastern and registered here the opening days of American wx on my old handle which I have since lost. I've seen many people come and go, great, good and terrible posters of all, and I have not to this point been entirely turned off by the weenieism as of yet, mostly because I LOVE the weather and would be more than happy to talk anyone's ears off that will listen and learn. However, the emotional investment that some take in this science is too much sometimes and those people again would do well to turn the emotions off and love the weather no matter what weather you get

I wish the level of discussion, maturity & metreooligical knowledge & intelligence would always rise to this but it , much more often than not, does not and will not. Problem is the drop off from WWBB & Eastern here is large. Weenism, on ocassion is understood but there is a logic that says if you are a weenie/snowhound etc..perhaps you need to perk up your ears to listen & learn from pro & more experienced hobbiests. Problem is those types are often not intelligent or objective enough to understand they are part of that catagory. So we g oon & enjoy what we love: weather & try to ignore the thorns that come with the turf

[IsentropicLift]

Really slowing down at hour 66 and sliding more west to east. ZR continues from KEWR north and west.

[PB GFI]

up to hr 60 , these are your surface temps

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 69 still some light freezing rain or drizzle NW of I-95.

[IsentropicLift]

Most of the ZR over NNJ falls with surface temps in the 20's.

[jm1220]

I agree with this, to a certain extent however I can tolerate a lot of what goes on, on this board. Its entirely human nature for two people to look at the exact same thing (in this case model runs) and see two completely different things. However, my problem comes in where people become emotionally invested in any given particular model run. The bickering over a 5 miles displacement of a rain snow line on an 18z run of the NAM means nothing to me, nor should it to anyone else. This is when the basic science of meteorology has gone by the way side and been replaced by modelology. The models are a WONDERFUL tool don't get me wrong, but any good met will tell you that the course of their studies revolved very lightly on models (outside of synoptic 1 & 2 in my case and even those were light on the models). I think what a lot of posters could benefit here from is reading more of the meteorology 101 forum and taking the time to get into the good ole basics of meteorology and stop becoming emotionally attached to the models.

 

With that said, my thinking is pretty much exactly the same as yesterday, the models are going to do their thing ironing out the mix line and exact track of the low, and that's great that is what they are there for, however, basic met tells me a few things with this system. Regardless of how cold the models are progged, this is VERY highly unlikely an all snow event for I95 corridor. There is a dangerous and unretarded warm punch in the mid levels aimed right for the region. Posters in certain areas wondering if they are going to see rain/snow or some wintry combination thereof would do best to take into account their local climatology (there's a fantastic thought). How often do you see a straight SW to NE rain/snow line (hint: almost never) , there is microclimatology (oh my what's that?) going on, and areas that tend to do well in these setups will likely do well again and areas that the warm air often changes you over, well... you'll likely change over again. My best educated guess would tell me that the true battle ground for where significant accumulations (of snow) drop off would occur from NW Hunterdon through the higher elevations of Morris county up into the Vernon area. Areas from there NW should see a nice snow event from this, though eventually I believe the warmth will even flood in there. However, more often then not especially regarding NJ climatology and past event history, tells me that by the time those areas do experience the warmth that most of the precip would be over (REGARDLESS of what models say), though this entirely depends on the strength and development of the coastal low.

 

I leave you with this, I have been around for many many years on these boards (going back to WWBB), through eastern and registered here the opening days of American wx on my old handle which I have since lost. I've seen many people come and go, great, good and terrible posters of all, and I have not to this point been entirely turned off by the weenieism as of yet, mostly because I LOVE the weather and would be more than happy to talk anyone's ears off that will listen and learn. However, the emotional investment that some take in this science is too much sometimes and those people again would do well to turn the emotions off and love the weather no matter what weather you get

Very well said. Thanks. Hopefully the storm works out as well as possible for everyone and we all see a good amount of snow before the inevitable changeover.

[IsentropicLift]

4-8" of front end dump NW of I-95, less city east.

[Zelocita Weather]

Very cold and wet NAM run.....all of NJ (even southern) would get a nice 3-6" from this before any changeover.

 

Great coastal development keeps cold air in, especially at the surface. Most snowy NAM run yet...

[SnoSki14]

4-8" of front end dump NW of I-95, less city east.

It's still out of range, but I can't help but think the surface cold hangs on, and the high to the north means business. Still plenty of time, I thought it was going to trend warmer, but nope.

[David-LI]

Geez, it's a roller coaster of anxiety on every model run, euro, gfs, ggem, nam. This reminds me of a storm I believe in december 2010 where most models had nothing and then a 18z NAM run showed a coastal developing and we all ended up with big amounts. Does anyone have any memory of that epic moment like I do? 

[bluewave]

The logic behind the Euro being worse in the short range makes no sense.

 

Why would a model be good in the medium range but bad in the short range? You have to get the short range right in order to get the medium range right...

 

Perhaps it's just that the Euro's superiority over the other models is less since the other models get better in the short term, but to say that the Euro is "worse" in the short term makes no sense and goes against the chaos theory in model output as one goes out in time. 

 

I agree. The Euro has the edge at all forecast hours. But people expecting perfection are always going to be disappointed.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

[JetsPens87]

It's still out of range, but I can't help but think the surface cold hangs on, and the high to the north means business. Still plenty of time, I thought it was going to trend warmer, but nope.

 

Many times in these WAA setups, the surface hangs on longer but the mid levels warm up faster.

[Storm At Sea]

Precip shield is very broken (though, it is most organized for the coastal plain). Upstate NY and much of PA would be lucky to seen moderate snowfall rates. Very unimpressive QPF from this system, blocking or no blocking.

[jm1220]

The NAM this run keeps winds from a northerly component most of the time and therefore is colder for the coastal areas. Looks like the city goes to rain eventually but not after snow/sleet for most of the storm. The wind direction will really spell out how the city and coastal areas do for this storm. If somehow we can keep it from the NE or even ENE, we will do much better.

[SnoSki14]

Now need that coastal to developer earlier and stronger on the 00z run and we are all in for a big snowstorm. Can't wait to see how this pans out.

It could help keep the cold air intact if the transfer occurs faster, that's what I'm keeping a close eye on. Really on the fence right now, but from past experiences the low level cold has always surprised mets on how stubborn it could be and often times places away from the immediate coast saw ice storm warnings or freezing rain advisories go up.

[JetsPens87]

Precip shield is very broken (though, it is most organized for the coastal plain). Upstate NY and much of PA would be lucky to seen moderate snowfall rates. Very unimpressive QPF from this system, blocking or no blocking.

Interesting point, you would think for a robust shortwave tapping gulf moisture that there would be more QPF. Do you think the shortwave out ahead of the plains shortwave is almost "choking" the flow and not allowing the UVV's to really amp up?

[PB GFI]

This is to 60 hours , Surface temps still sub 30 in NYC  thu CNJ and 850`s are still minus 1 , havent checked the 925mb level , so curious to see if we still all snow at this point

[IsentropicLift]

Let's hope that the surface track is closer to the coast, the 4k NAM radar is less than impressive on land.

 

[Superstorm93]

Looks good to me. WSW should be up eventually 

 

[IsentropicLift]

Mt. Holly just issued their first maps. I'm shocked at the forecasted ZR amounts.

 

 

[Storm At Sea]

I think it's the confluence. Folks are looking at 6 hr QPF increments and totaling them up and throwing numbers around. A) I suspect that it's going to move in and move out quickly, especially the first batch of precip (likely a few inches of snow)  during the transfer, there's going to be a void well organized precip, likely a typical showery regimen of mix batch for much of NJ; a potential deformation area may set up for eastern Upstate NY which then yields to nice snows for much of New England. Anytime you see 0.35 to 0.5 QPF's for south central PA, you have to figure that a system is not going to be too impressive especially with the transfer.

 

Interesting point, you would think for a robust shortwave tapping gulf moisture that there would be more QPF. Do you think the shortwave out ahead of the plains shortwave is almost "choking" the flow and not allowing the UVV's to really amp up?