jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ZR no but possibly sleet Maybe sleet for a time, but if we see sustained east and southeast winds, it's over for us-that simple. We need the low to track well southeast of us to keep the winds in a northerly direction. A low near Cape May would annihilate us with warm air. I guess we would then have to hope for a nice front-end snow and that the warmth isn't so severe that it all isn't washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ZR no but possibly sleet. you will have minimal ZR - the push of warm air with SE with lowers the probability of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I have no clue why people are complaining. This is still a light snowfall for the area. Enjoy it. I haven't seen one person complain. The only complaints are about the terrible wishcasting and posts with no substance at all. I can't sit here all day and delete them. Think before you post. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I wonder if the models will keep trending warmer now so we get mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I have no clue why people are complaining. This is still a light snowfall for the area. Enjoy it. no one is complaining about the light snowfall. Some people who are objective get agitated with folks who immediately disregard the warmer less snowy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I haven't seen one person complain. The only complaints are about the terrible wishcasting and posts with no substance at all. I can't sit here all day and delete them. Think before you post. Please. THANK YOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 you will have minimal ZR - the push of warm air with SE with lowers the probability of it Correct, the depth of the warm air at the coast significantly limits the chance of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This past week we received freezing rain with temps in the 24-28F range. It was a mild disaster in Highland Lakes until around 11 AM. Roads were a sheet of ice. I measured 0.25 inches of ice. 1/2 inch of freezing rain would be a complete and utter disaster if your temps are 29F or below. So what words remain to describe a crippling ice storm if horrendous refers to inconvenience. Have you ever seen more than a quarter inch of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think people are missing the 09-11 storms, I know I am (they are quite rare though) We won't get that type of a storm again unless we get blocking northeast of us and we can stop the uber-progressive pattern over southeast Canada. The pattern is too Nina/progressive to allow for a massive Nor'easter offshore for now. The best we can do are SWFE/front-end storms like these which go to ice or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I haven't seen one person complain. The only complaints are about the terrible wishcasting and posts with no substance at all. I can't sit here all day and delete them. Think before you post. Please. Seriously. It's rediculous on here lately. So much bickering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We won't get that type of a storm again unless we get blocking northeast of us and we can stop the uber-progressive pattern over southeast Canada. The pattern is too Nina/progressive to allow for a massive Nor'easter offshore for now. The best we can do are SWFE/front-end storms like these which go to ice or rain. Yea I know, even in the ultra long range on the models storms have a progressive look. But one day the blocking will return. - Its not impossible to get a big storm with no blocking so maybe we can pull one off this year if the overall pattern doesn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean looks nearly identical to the Euro run FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We won't get that type of a storm again unless we get blocking northeast of us and we can stop the uber-progressive pattern over southeast Canada. The pattern is too Nina/progressive to allow for a massive Nor'easter offshore for now. The best we can do are SWFE/front-end storms like these which go to ice or rain. A +PNA could also do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 First Call: Grey: 3-4in (1/3rd to 2/5th Snow, sleet then plain rain)Blue: 3-5in (2/3rds Snow changing over to sleet and then rain)Purple: 5-7in (Stays all Frozen and perhaps changing over to freezing rain and sleet for an hour or two)Orange: 7-12in All snow with very heavy snow! Although the EURO says no soup for us....but I'm holding firm until other models fall in line with EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Seriously. It's rediculous on here lately. So much bickering. It's quite tiresome, I'll say that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The logic behind the Euro being worse in the short range makes no sense. Why would a model be good in the medium range but bad in the short range? You have to get the short range right in order to get the medium range right... Perhaps it's just that the Euro's superiority over the other models is less since the other models get better in the short term, but to say that the Euro is "worse" in the short term makes no sense and goes against the chaos theory in model output as one goes out in time. +1 , I posted a more vague description of your post earlier, people seem to not understand how models work. The only thing I could think of is maybe in the past some Met. posted that the EURO isn't a mesosale model, so people ran with that thinking to not use it in the short term. Plus it used to only come out at 12z so sometimes it didn't come out in time for last second adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean looks nearly identical to the Euro run FWIW. euro was still a decent shot of snow nw. i dont have all the soundings for all levels but it looks like it changes over to ice between hrs 63-66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 euro was still a decent shot of snow nw. i dont have all the soundings for all levels but it looks like it changes over to ice between hrs 63-66 Hey buddy, you have the total QPF for your area, and how much is frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 People get too angry when models show less snow or are warmer, it is what it is. We don't average that much snow in December and there will be other chances, I don't see us having a major pattern change to warmth and all rain. I'll take what I can get I guess though it's unfortunate it'll get washed away. There's still another 48hrs of runs to go through though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So what words remain to describe a crippling ice storm if horrendous refers to inconvenience. Have you ever seen more than a quarter inch of ice? haha is area was devastated a few years ago with .75 of ice or greater, i will post a picture for u. no power for 5 days, utility poles snaped in half as well as tons of trees down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 A +PNA could also do the trick. Maybe, but we would need perfect luck and timing without a block of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hey buddy, you have the total QPF for your area, and how much is frozen? not an exact but certainly looks like over .5 before the change to ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I can see the Euro scenario playing out. However, Euro is not the "King of Models" like it had been in the 1990's ad 2000's. It has lost some ground, which we saw last winter several times. The issue at hand is the SE flow, which cannot be avoided with an 850 mb low sitting over OH or W PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 A +PNA could also do the trick. this isnt a -PNA - not sure why you think that isnt a +PNA...any shortcomings will be on the atlantic side of the equation. That appears to be a fairly positive NAO. Low heights at the tip of Greenland are about as bad is gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Almost time for everyone's favorite the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 this isnt a -PNA - not sure why you think that isnt a +PNA...any shortcomings will be on the atlantic side of the equation. It's certainly not a terrible Pacific pattern, but that ridge axis is a bit west of the "ideal" position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's a near neutral PNA (slightly negative). It's certainly not a terrible Pacific pattern, but that ridge axis is a bit west of the "ideal" position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's certainly not a terrible Pacific pattern, but that ridge axis is a bit west of the "ideal" position. oh for sure. But of there was a block this would be a TRUE miller B....damn h85 low parked over Pittsburgh is a disaster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 I can see the Euro scenario playing out. However, Euro is not the "King of Models" like it had been in the 1990's ad 2000's. It has lost some ground, which we saw last winter several times. The issue at hand is the SE flow, which cannot be avoided with an 850 mb low sitting over OH or W PA. I still remember when it insisted on showing a sub 920mb hurricane in the gulf two summers ago. I believe it was the F storm. Had it for like 7 or 8 runs in row. Wound up being an OTS tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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