BxEngine Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Lol, why? This isn't the NAM. It's the ***** Euro. Because, as has been pointed out numerous times, the wxbell maps are a complete joke and shouldnt be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 0.50" of ZR is enough to bring down some power lines, especially if everything is coated is snow beforehand. We only had a trace up this way a few days ago thanks to freezing drizzle all night and it took me 20 minutes to get my windshield clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 DT once showed stats that the ECM is not as good in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Lol, why? This isn't the NAM. It's the ***** Euro. Honestly the Euro snow maps are in line with the GFS and GGEM. Well, the GGEM was even more. 5-7" for Union Cty. 3-5" for NYC. Because the weatherbell maps are way too high in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 DT once showed stats that the ECM is not as good in the short range. So what is your point? Ignore it?, throw it out? Even if its less reliable in this range (And I'm not saying it is) it doesn't mean you don't consider it's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 WTF? More false rumors such as the following NAM - NAM is only good under 6 hours GFS - SE bias for coastals UK - makes lows to tight and and pushed them inland Canadian - Always the snowiest/coldest model From my recollection the Canadian is almost always warm with coastals. It has even showed rain for some of our best snow storms over the last 5 years The nam does not have a deadly range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The text outputs for the 12z GFS are horrendous for the I-287 corridor. KMMU - 3.9" of snow. 0.50" of ZR 12z GFS for KSWF - 5.7 of snow, 0.09 of ZR. Total precip 0.87 for MMU vs. 0.66 for KSWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You dont throw it out, but you dont discount the other solutions. I wouldnt be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z GFS for KSWF - 5.7 of snow, 0.09 of ZR. Total precip 0.87 for MMU vs. 0.66 for KSWF. KMMU for my source. SWF was showing only 0.08" ZR. Looks like MMU is the hardest hit location I have stats for. 131214/1500Z 51 06008KT 24.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 131214/1800Z 54 05011KT 25.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086 12:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 131214/2100Z 57 05013KT 25.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 11:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 131215/0000Z 60 04014KT 26.3F SNOW 9:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.191 10:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 131215/0300Z 63 04014KT 27.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.26|| 0.251 10:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.26|| 0.64 0| 0|100 131215/0600Z 66 02013KT 31.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.181 10:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.45|| 0.83 0| 0|100 131215/0900Z 69 34009KT 31.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.048 10:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.50|| 0.87 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I never understood why people think the EURO would be bad in short range, if that was the case it would be even worst in the long range. One minor error 6-12 hrs out would lead to a larger differential 3-4 days out. Doesn't make sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The logic behind the Euro being worse in the short range makes no sense. Why would a model be good in the medium range but bad in the short range? You have to get the short range right in order to get the medium range right... Perhaps it's just that the Euro's superiority over the other models is less since the other models get better in the short term, but to say that the Euro is "worse" in the short term makes no sense and goes against the chaos theory in model output as one goes out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Euro has almost 1" per hour rates 30 miles NW of NYC at hour 66. Maps show 4-5" in 6 hours in those spots. That's likely ZR just inside that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I never understood why people think the EURO would be bad in short range, if that was the case it would be even worst in the long range. One minor error 6-12 hrs out would lead to a larger differential 3-4 days out. Doesn't make sense to me. Yea exactly, although it has failed a few times this year less than 3 day out... so he might have read something pertaining to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 None of the models have been great. If anything the GGEM and the Euro led the way with the last minor event. The GFS had widespread 4-6" totals the day before. And the NAM was just awful showing that heavy band 75 miles NW of where it ultimately ended up. Also none of the models had the surface over freezing for most of the area either, but most locals hit 32-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 .50" of freezing rain, how bad is that? Horrendous might be a bit strong a word, but that would be a fairly nasty ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Perhaps it's just that the Euro's superiority over the other models is less since the other models get better in the short term, but to say that the Euro is "worse" in the short term makes no sense and goes against the chaos theory in model output as one goes out in time. impeccable logic! EURO doesnt get worse in short term,,, the other models just catch up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like models are warming things up now, perhaps it'll be a lot more rain vs snow than first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 None of the models have been great. If anything the GGEM and the Euro led the way with the last minor event. The GFS had widespread 4-6" totals the day before. And the NAM was just awful showing that heavy band 75 miles NW of where it ultimately ended up. Also none of the models had the surface over freezing for most of the area either, but most locals hit 32-34. Yea they all overdid the cold air which lead to terrible snow ratios and melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 For what? This always had been a 2-4 inch snowfall for the area before changing to either rain or sleet for NYC. kind of like the forecasts for 3-5 inches of snow earlier this week....How many people saw 5"? For areas S and E of i-95 this will be an inch or two and straight to rain - there will be no sleet or ZR in Brooklyn or LI... NW suburbs, probably... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The EURO isnt in its prime range, anymore. yes it is, this IS ITS PRIME. 48-72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like models are warming things up now, perhaps it'll be a lot more rain vs snow than first thought. Nothing to worry about at all. The models still show a few inches of snow before possibly turning to rain for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So take those numbers and cut them in half EXACTLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Lol, why? This isn't the NAM. It's the ***** Euro. Honestly the Euro snow maps are in line with the GFS and GGEM. Well, the GGEM was even more. 5-7" for Union Cty. 3-5" for NYC. because it is wxbell bull---- snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 kind of like the forecasts for 3-5 inches of snow earlier this week....How many people saw 5"? For areas S and E of i-95 this will be an inch or two and straight to rain - there will be no sleet or ZR in Brooklyn or LI... NW suburbs, probably... ZR no but possibly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nothing to worry about at all. The models still show a few inches of snow before possibly turning to rain for the NYC area.I guess that's good? Getting a couple of inches of snow only to see it all and the last events snow cover get completely washed away. Oh well.They'll be plenty of future chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I have no clue why people are complaining. This is still a light snowfall for the area. Enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I guess that's good? Getting a couple of inches of snow only to see it all and the last events snow cover get completely washed away. Oh well. I'm fine with whatever snow I can get. I know some people don't like it getting washed away. What can you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I never understood why people think the EURO would be bad in short range, if that was the case it would be even worst in the long range. One minor error 6-12 hrs out would lead to a larger differential 3-4 days out. Doesn't make sense to me. its called grasping at straws with snow goggles on...its par the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I have no clue why people are complaining. This is still a light snowfall for the area. Enjoy it. I think people are missing the 09-11 storms, I know I am (they are quite rare though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Horrendous might be a bit strong a word, but that would be a fairly nasty ice storm. This past week we received freezing rain with temps in the 24-28F range. It was a mild disaster in Highland Lakes until around 11 AM. Roads were a sheet of ice. I measured 0.25 inches of ice. 1/2 inch of freezing rain would be a complete and utter disaster if your temps are 29F or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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