IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hour 72 it's moving out, some light ZR still NW, rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 yep the primary is too strong this run and then form secondary off acy..we are flooded with warm air..i-80 south is rain on euro at hr 66 How are areas N+W of metro making out in the euro..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Sounds like the 12Z ECMWF is a flood of warmth for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Snow maps still showing high end advisory for most of NNJ. 2-4" for the immediate NW burbs and 6-8" for the Poconos up through Sullivan County and northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not a good Euro run. Primary was stronger on this run. Models keep on flip flopping. Onto the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 How are areas N+W of metro making out in the euro..? Euro is 4-8" for your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 How are areas N+W of metro making out in the euro..? 4-6 of snow before any change over, but the ice threat is limited. This basically looks like a swfe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hour 66 we all torch outside of NW of I-287 folks, sub 1008mb low right over Cape May County NJ. not looking promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not a good Euro run. Primary was stronger on this run. Models keep on flip flopping. Onto the 0z runs. Euro is still 2-4" front end dump for the NYC and LI folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Euro looks like what the models were showing earlier in the day yesterday. I'm going to say toss this run, it's an outlier to the GGEM, GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Makes the NAM look cold at 66 . NWNJ , mid Hudson Valley looks nice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not a good Euro run. Primary was stronger on this run. Models keep on flip flopping. Onto the 0z runs. I wouldn't exactly call it a flip flop, its just a stronger low and the secondary low is closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 not looking promising For what? This always had been a 2-4 inch snowfall for the area before changing to either rain or sleet for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Euro looks like what the models were showing earlier in the day yesterday. I'm going to say toss this run, it's an outlier to the GGEM, GFS and NAM. Actually isn't the GGEM the outlier at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The 12z UKMET is an all out torch with very late development and track of the primary into central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 First Call for New Jersey: Green: 1-2in (1/4th Snow, changing to rain after 1-2hours of snow) Red: 2-3in (1/3rd Snow, changing to plain rain) Grey: 3-4in (1/3rd to 2/5th Snow, sleet then plain rain) Grey: 3-4in (1/3rd to 2/5th Snow, sleet then plain rain)Blue: 3-5in (2/3rds Snow changing over to sleet and then rain) Purple: 5-7in (Stays all Frozen and perhaps changing over to freezing rain and sleet for an hour or two) And the Euro makes me look like a fool....but I'm holding firm lol :axe: :axe: :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Actually isn't the GGEM the outlier at this point? I guess you could say it's the other extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The EURO isnt in its prime range, anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I guess you could say it's the other extreme. Well I wouldn't say the Euro option is off the table, especially if it has support from the UKMET and we know the NAM will flip a few more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Trend today has been the low closer to the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The text outputs for the 12z GFS are horrendous for the I-287 corridor. KMMU - 3.9" of snow. 0.50" of ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Based off the wxbell snowmap, the city gets 3-6 inches while just to the north and west of the city, they get a lot more. It's not that bad of a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The 12z UKMET is an all out torch with very late development and track of the primary into central PA I would pay the least attention to that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 .50" of freezing rain, how bad is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Based off the wxbell snowmap, the city gets 3-6 inches while just to the north and west of the city, they get a lot more. It's not that bad of a run. So take those numbers and cut them in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 .50" of freezing rain, how bad is that? That's right on the cusp of awful. That's ice storm warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The stronger primary low will be able to provide more overrunning precipitation, so the snowfall amounts do not necessarily go down that much with a stronger low -- it's just that the primary low being stronger will warm places along the coast much faster and allow for rain to wash away the snow. Primary low = heavier snow for a short period of time and more rain. Weaker low = light to moderate snow for a longer period of time and only snizzle at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So take those numbers and cut them in half Lol, why? This isn't the NAM. It's the ***** Euro. Honestly the Euro snow maps are in line with the GFS and GGEM. Well, the GGEM was even more. 5-7" for Union Cty. 3-5" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 .50" of freezing rain, how bad is that?anything over 0.25" of ice is bad, a half an inch of ice wouldn't be kind to power lines and trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The EURO isnt in its prime range, anymore. WTF? More false rumors such as the following NAM - NAM is only good under 6 hours GFS - SE bias for coastals UK - makes lows to tight and and pushed them inland Canadian - Always the snowiest/coldest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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