rossi Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Does it end after front end dump or turn to ice? When does it end? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Another shift south and east on the GFS. I am liking the high pressure up north. The Freezing line holds on right near the coast throughout the event on this run. Looks like a nice front end thump before it turns to rain for NYC. The low goes right off the NJ coast and up towards eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Over an inch of QPF for everyone on the 12z GFS. All frozen or freezing precip from the city NW. It's about 6-9 hours of IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Does it end after front end dump or turn to ice? When does it end? Rossi It goes from snow to ice for anyone NW of the city and snow to rain for Long Island. The surface freezing line hangs right near the city. It's too bad that this is still 5 days out. It's pretty close right now to about as good as we can get in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Over an inch of QPF for everyone on the 12z GFS. All frozen or freezing precip from the city NW. It's about 6-9 hours of IP/ZR. This run was really close to a big snowstorm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 At 120 hours, the low is just eas Much further south and east on this run. The low ends up just east of LI. The issue is the 1st max still runs to buffalo. U need that to die in the Ohio valley And the secondary 6 hours earlier . The HP arrives 6 hours too early. It's a step. But it's a function of the models getting the speed at 500 mb right 4 days out I wouldn't worry yet. Would still like to b in the lower Hudson. Regardless I thnk they already home free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Another shift south and east on the GFS. I am liking the high pressure up north. The Freezing line holds on right near the coast throughout the event on this run. Looks like a nice front end thump before it turns to rain for NYC. The low goes right off the NJ coast and up towards eastern LI. I don't think it's done trending, those cold highs to the north mean business. I'm strongly expecting a miller B storm now that will give us our biggest storm yet with a good deal of snow and ice. Plenty of moisture too because it's of southern stream origin and it taps into gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 WXbell snowmap shows near 12 inches of snow just outside of the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What? Not to vent, but the lack of any meteorological insight is becoming atrocious on this board. I post less and less due to egocentric, illogical posts. The 12z GFS continues the trend towards a possible legitimate storm. I see great positives in the trends. It goes from snow to ice for anyone NW of the city and snow to rain for Long Island. The surface freezing line hangs right near the city. It's too bad that this is still 5 days out. It's pretty close right now to about as good as we can get in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 850s are still warm and the coast probably goes to plain rain for a time. This seems to be a bigger ice threat than a heavy snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 850s are still warm and the coast probably goes to plain rain for a time. This seems to be a bigger ice threat than a heavy snow event. I understand your feelings. Lets just say this is currently FAR below Eastern Weathern in its heyday. The floor should be open to Pro Mets & well studied hobbyists - weenies should simply watch & learn. PERIOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 What? Not to vent, but the lack of any meteorological insight is becoming atrocious on this board. I post less and less due to egocentric, illogical posts. The 12z GFS continues the trend towards a possible legitimate storm. I see great positives in the trends. I'm not sure if you were criticizing my post or not but in any event, if this trends any further south and east we're going to end up cold and dry. To me this run was the most impactful solution on the table. I'm fascinated by ice storms so to me this run was the best of both words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What? Not to vent, but the lack of any meteorological insight is becoming atrocious on this board. I post less and less due to egocentric, illogical posts. The 12z GFS continues the trend towards a possible legitimate storm. I see great positives in the trends. In most peoples defense.. This is an amateur weather forum for enthusiasts right? I agree not to post absurd stuff but most of us aren't meteorologist lol.. If u see something someone posts that's dumb correct them and inform them so they can learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 I understand your feelings. Lets just say this is currently FAR below Eastern Weathern in its heyday. The floor should be open to Pro Mets & well studied hobbyists - weenies should simply watch & learn. PERIOD On the 12z GFS you would need to be east of JFK to flip to plain rain. Really quite CAD this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What? Not to vent, but the lack of any meteorological insight is becoming atrocious on this board. I post less and less due to egocentric, illogical posts. The 12z GFS continues the trend towards a possible legitimate storm. I see great positives in the trends. The trends have been encouraging for sure and can see it moving further S&E over the next couple days to include even coastal areas in this potential SECS. These cold highs coming down from canada are going to be very powerful and think that they will win out in providing sufficient cold air for even coastal areas for this storm. Yes current 12z says rain after snow at the coast but the timing is still being ironed out. Lets be patient and remember this pattern really isnt conducive to big snows so this is a plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The trends have been encouraging for sure and can see it moving further S&E over the next couple days to include even coastal areas in this potential SECS. These cold highs coming down from canada are going to be very powerful and think that they will win out in providing sufficient cold air for even coastal areas for this storm. Yes current 12z says rain after snow at the coast but the timing is still being ironed out. Lets be patient and remember this pattern really isnt conducive to big snows so this is a plus I think it will still trend colder. To see the freezing line right near the coast this far out even when the 850's are warming up is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think it will still trend colder. To see the freezing line right near the coast this far out even when the 850's are warming up is a good sign. I was shocked at the level of CAD with only a 1032mb high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think it will still trend colder. To see the freezing line right near the coast this far out even when the 850's are warming up is a good sign. You have a level head my friend a 50-75 mile shift east and were all in it and the trends have shown it going in the right direction. Lets all remember the record of these models this year after 96 hrs. Even less than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 You have a level head my friend a 50-75 mile shift east and were all in it and the trends have shown it going in the right direction. Lets all remember the record of these models this year after 96 hrs. Even less than that. We really don't want the coastal to trend any further east. As it is, the heavier QPF stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yesterday the models were tracking one low over the area. Today the 12z GFS tracked the primary to Buffalo and then redeveloped off the coast. It's the key because we get the initial WAA snows and then everything flips to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yesterday the models were tracking one low over the area. Today the 12z GFS tracked the primary to Buffalo and then redeveloped off the coast. It's the key because we get the initial WAA snows and then everything flips to the coastal. We need the primary to die off in OH to get optimal coastal development where 850's and other levels dont get too warm near the coast. Also the high needs to be better timed as well. It is truly threading the needle here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yesterday the models were tracking one low over the area. Today the 12z GFS tracked the primary to Buffalo and then redeveloped off the coast. It's the key because we get the initial WAA snows and then everything flips to the coastal. We want the primary to transfer further south. Buffalo is too far north for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 We want the primary to transfer further south. Buffalo is too far north for our area. I would rather have this current run verbatim. When is the last time we had 4-6" of snow followed by warning criteria ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I would rather have this current run verbatim. When is the last time we had 4-6" of snow followed by warning criteria ice? Long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 We want the primary to transfer further south. Buffalo is too far north for our area. Correct Anthony. No further north then Pitt to stay snow. We do get good overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Correct Anthony. No further north then Pitt to stay snow. We do get good overrunning Which is a good possibility in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 12z GGEM looks pretty similiar to the GFS. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Which is a good possibility in this event. I think it is a very good possibility that this storm dies off well south of buffalo and we look at our first SECS threat for all the tri-state area. Not making a forecast just looking on current trends the past couple days. This storm has the look of some of our latest miller B storms. The models always have hard time pinning down the high and primary low pressure battleground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 12z GGEM looks pretty similiar to the GFS. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Thus far decent look for an event 96+ hours out still anthony. Think we have the cold air on our side this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 12z GGEM looks pretty similiar to the GFS. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif The GGEM is nowhere near as good as the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.