ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice weenie run on the Canadian eesh that still looks like rain on the south shore of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Still firmly believe that we trend colder as we approach this event. It would be foolish to underestimate this cold source... Player number one has taken the field over CA (with some lightning as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Very good points.. simply saying that its cold before the storm doesnt work.. there is a lot more to it than that.. right - if we had confluence/a 50/50 low/blocking in the nao region this would be a true miller B. But we have none, that is why the hP is able to slide east and allow for E-SE winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 by hr 66 the surface temps are WAY above freezing - the entire column is under 800MB - see below Can you display the soundings for KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Any takers? That's almost identical to the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 This is from the analogs. Probability of ZR for 6 hours or more. 3 hours or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 This is old but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS has 3.4" for LGA followed by plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS has 3.4" for LGA followed by plain rain. prec.png Can you post KMMU please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS has 3.4" for LGA followed by plain rain. prec.png What's the web address for these maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The 12z gfs is showing more surface e/se winds for NYC. It's more about the wind direction that determines if we changeover to ice or rain. Than the amount of cold air beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice weenie run on the Canadian I believe that one day the canadian will score a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The 12z gfs is showing more surface e/se winds for NYC. It's more about the wind direction that determines if we changeover to ice or rain. Than the amount of cold air beforehand. We're pretty much screwed once that happens. I was encouraged by some of the colder trends last night, but if that reverses any we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z GGEM is about 17mm as snow which is about 0.65-0.7 LE. Slightly more than last night. Also has about 6mm of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z GGEM is about 17mm as snow which is about 0.65-0.7 LE. Slightly more than last night. Also has about 6mm of rain for which location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 for which location? Oh whoops thought I included location. KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Oh whoops thought I included location. KNYC It's amazing how tight the gradient is on the GGEM. The areas just to the west of NYC get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ALL EYES TURN TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE NC COAST SAT NIGHT AND HEADING NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SUNDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...AND ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF AN ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NE THAT WILL PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL FEED OF COLD AIR. LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOWS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SAT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE NEARBY ARCTIC FRONT...THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT VIA STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H7-8 FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. AS FAR AS THERMAL PROFILES GO...BOTH MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO WARM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD HANG IN LONGER THAN MODEL FCST...AND EVEN AT THE COAST WHERE SNOWFALL SHOULD COUNTERACT WARMING ON EASTERLY FLOW. THEY ALSO DISAGREE ON THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT NW OF NYC...AND SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND...AND THE GFS SHOWING A CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INLAND LATE SAT NIGHT. SINCE THE BETTER PART OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE FALLEN BY THE TIME P-TYPE BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM SNOW...THESE DIFFERENCES SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SO THINK MOST INLAND SECTIONS AND ALL OF SOUTHERN CT SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5-7 INCHES...WITH NYC AND LONG ISLAND SEEING AMOUNTS OF 2-4 OR 3-5 INCHES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THESE AMOUNTS...AND A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR MOST AREAS NW OF NYC AND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I would think once west of the parkway and north of RT.78 surface temp does not get above 32-33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Can you display the soundings for KMMU? ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I would think once west of the parkway and north of RT.78 surface temp does not get above 32-33F. Agree and thank you for not making the blanket north of I78 statement. That kills me. There is a west component to the rain/snow line as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 48 euro light snow into central PA. 12Z saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Okay here we go, hour 54 12z Euro, flurries virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 54 light snow continues..surface between ttn and phl. 850's south of mason dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 That high on the Euro is really making itself known, initial batch of precip gets eaten up by dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hour 60 moderate snow for everyone, secondary starting to form in eastern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 60 steady snow…850's acy…surface 95..primary looks stronger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hour 66 we all torch outside of NW of I-287 folks, sub 1008mb low right over Cape May County NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 yep the primary is too strong this run and then form secondary off acy..we are flooded with warm air..i-80 south is rain on euro at hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 First Call for New Jersey: Green: 1-2in (1/4th Snow, changing to rain after 1-2hours of snow)Red: 2-3in (1/3rd Snow, changing to plain rain) Grey: 3-4in (1/3rd to 2/5th Snow, sleet then plain rain) Grey: 3-4in (1/3rd to 2/5th Snow, sleet then plain rain)Blue: 3-5in (2/3rds Snow changing over to sleet and then rain)Purple: 5-7in (Stays all Frozen and perhaps changing over to freezing rain and sleet for an hour or two) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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