Weathergun Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The snowfall maps don't account for mixing and melting/compacting on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Setup remains me a bit of VD 2007, low was tucked into the coast but surface temperatures remained cold. Also If I recall correctly, the models back then trended colder with the surface temperatures as we got within 36-48 hours. Will be interesting to see if we get a similar trend here in this situation. Not with double barreled HPs over SE Canada. That will provoke SE winds. Unless if the HPs go over the Great Lakes/Western NYS. That will reel in a NE wind flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The coast isn't that far away from an all snow event. We need the low to bomb out a little more off the coast. At this point I don't think that's likely. Perhaps an all frozen event with IP/ZR, if you're into that sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 unfortunately, Plymouth doesnt do 3 hour intervals anyone know if a site that does? Snow growth is fine at hr 54 h7 temps are -11-12 early on. The 60 hr panel has them at -8ish...not horrible. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The coast isn't that far away from an all snow event. We need the low to bomb out a little more off the coast. the coast is a light year away. IF the surface was the only thing holding this back i would agree - the entire column is above zero C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The coast isn't that far away from an all snow event. We need the low to bomb out a little more off the coast. Its trending that way. Whether it gets there in time for this event is yet to be seen. Step back and look at the trends thus far today 1. Weaker/further south primary 2. Quicker coastal development 3. CAD becoming more favorable. All these have been documented today. 12z EURO is going to quite telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 At this point I don't think that's likely. Perhaps an all frozen event with IP/ZR, if you're into that sort of thing. It's possible the precip ends as drizzle . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The models are likely not handling the amount of cold air in place. They did the same this past Sunday/ Monday. But this time around there's actually more cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Per the NAM KMMU gets to 32.8 degrees for two hours before dropping again. If you take those two hours out it shows 11 hours of ZR and one hour of IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 the coast is a light year away. IF the surface was the only thing holding this back i would agree - the entire column is above zero C The surface isn't that warm. Yes it gets above freezing but not terrible above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 thank you you're welcome in case you want to poke around here is the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Being in middlesex county has me feared of a prolonged ice event. Being further south may help tho. Somerset county on north will probably see the worst of it I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The models are likely not handling the amount of cold air in place. They did the same this past Sunday/ Monday. But this time around there's actually more cold air There is a lot of cold air in place. It is possible that this ends up colder. I wonder if the models will cool down the 850's since the freezing line really budges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The models are likely not handling the amount of cold air in place. They did the same this past Sunday/ Monday. But this time around there's actually more cold air The models stay awfully cold at the surface, except when the coastal makes its closest approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The surface isn't that warm. Yes it gets above freezing but not terrible above freezing. the rest of the column is...so if the cold got trapped at the surface you would wind up with ZR. As modeled by the NAM/GFS this isnt a full snow event...not saying ts wrong or right - just interpreting the facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Better enjoy this one folks because it's the last threat for awhile now. Next week looks cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 the rest of the column is...so if the cold got trapped at the surface you would wind up with ZR. As modeled by the NAM/GFS this isnt a full snow event...not saying ts wrong or right - just interpreting the facts I know Ace. You're doing a good job at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The cutoff between the coastal plains boundary layer and the interior boundary layer will probably be quite dramatic and sharp. The difference of a few degrees will loom large once precipitation starts falling. I think inland areas will be able to hold on to heavy wet snow for a bit before the warm tongue pushes through and really starts melting things. Even then, areas of NW NJ are going to have some real issues when it comes to sleet or freezing rain given the cold air drainage at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not with double barreled HPs over SE Canada. That will provoke SE winds. Unless if the HPs go over the Great Lakes/Western NYS. That will reel in a NE wind flow. Winds at the peak of precip for NYC are from the ENE/NE on the 12z NAM, If the low tracks further offshore I think the surface will be colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NNJ catches the worst of the ZR on this run of the GFS with a stripe extending NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This one could be pretty frustrating because it's so close to giving us a significant event. It's almost like a PD II event with the overrunning and then coastal but to a much lesser extent. The highs are not as strong or expansive and the primary is going to far north, but the models could still be underestimating the low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Western NJ catches the worst of the ZR on this run of the GFS. ne.gfsacctype12-27.gif That's still below warning criteria for a lot of the area ice wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 There is a lot of cold air in place. It is possible that this ends up colder. I wonder if the models will cool down the 850's since the freezing line really budges. did you read the back and forth I had with Snowgoose last night about January 1994? The low temps prior to two consecutive storms were 0 degrees and 7 degrees and it was in JANUARY. Both storms that day or within 24 hours had high temps in the 50's...yes FIFTIES. It didnt snow more than a few hours... do this map look familiar?? that is h5 on January 17 1994 at 7AM EST... side note - this is what the h5 map looked like the last time it was below zero in NYC the 492DCM is almost touching NYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 did you read the back and forth I had with Snowgoose last night about January 1994? The low temps prior to two consecutive storms were 0 degrees and 7 degrees and it was in JANUARY. Both storms that day or within 24 hours had high temps in the 50's...yes FIFTIES. It didnt snow more than a few hours... do this map look familiar?? that is h5 on January 17 1994 at 7AM EST... side note - this is what the h5 map looked like the last time it was below zero in NYC the 492DCM is almost touching NYS Very good points.. simply saying that its cold before the storm doesnt work.. there is a lot more to it than that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Very good points.. simply saying that its cold before the storm doesnt work.. there is a lot more to it than that.. 96 had a bitterly cold airmass when it started. I believe some spots were in lower single digits, yet some places still mixed. I remember a prolonged period of sleet myself. Then a few days later we torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice weenie run on the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Very good points.. simply saying that its cold before the storm doesnt work.. there is a lot more to it than that.. It's also cold but not THAT cold. Its cold for mid December but we're looking at 20s and 30s in the city, not low teens when the snow begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Would a stronger secondary help in this case, the gfs has trended toward a stronger secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Would a stronger secondary help in this case, the gfs has trended toward a stronger secondary.As long as its not tucked in right along the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice weenie run on the Canadian It's frozen for most almost all run and has very little in the way of ZR, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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