ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hour 63 heavy snow, the 850 and surface freezing lines are literally crossed right over NYC with the 850mb freezing line still south of Long Island. 925MB temps are OVER 0C for most of the area - across all of NYC/LI and continue that line west through NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 big ice threat, hopefully its mostly sleet like VD 2007, and there is going to be an extremely sharp gradient. Like as soon as you cross the GWB into NJ is where the transition zone might be. Could also be a case where the southern boroughs warm up while the NW Bronx remains mostly/all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 2-4" is a reasonable forecast now for NYC, probably on the lower end for SI and the southern half of Brooklyn and Queens. NW of I95 could have some serious icing. 2-4/ 3-6 is a good call for NYC as of right now. The snow will stick right away due to the really cold air that will be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 925MB temps are OVER 0C for most of the area - across all of NYC/LI and continue that line west through NJ While the surface temps are near or below freezing. Sleet fest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll give the 12z NAM text outputs that I have for those interested. Not saying they are right. KMMU - 5.3" of snow and 0.15" of IP, 0.08"ZR KLGA - 5.6" of snow and 0.05" of IP, 0.0"ZR KSWF - 7.0" of snow and 0.25" of ZR. They flip back to snow at the end. KHPN - 6.6" of snow and 0.13" of IP, then 0.01"ZR KJFK - 4.4" of snow then 0.50"+ of plain rain KISP - 4.1" of snow then 0.50"+ of plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 925MB temps are OVER 0C for most of the area - across all of NYC/LI and continue that line west through NJ Yeah that panel is sleet NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 MMU looks really ugly with ZR through 6z. SFC 991 144 -0.9 -1.2 98 0.2 -1.0 21 12 272.9 273.5 272.6 282.4 3.53 2 950 485 1.5 1.3 99 0.2 1.4 65 21 278.7 279.4 277.0 290.8 4.42 3 900 924 4.0 3.5 97 0.5 3.7 128 19 285.6 286.5 281.7 300.9 5.46 4 850 1388 2.8 2.3 96 0.5 2.6 180 20 289.1 290.0 283.1 304.3 5.32 5 800 1877 0.4 -0.1 97 0.4 0.1 209 25 291.5 292.4 283.5 305.3 4.76 6 750 2392 -2.8 -2.9 100 0.0 -2.9 219 28 293.5 294.2 283.7 305.6 4.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 I fully expect Watches west of NYC with the afternoon update, depending on what the Euro shows. The combination of 4-6" of snow with the added ZR threat should be enough to pull the trigger. They might even go watches in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 big ice threat, hopefully its mostly sleet like VD 2007, and there is going to be an extremely sharp gradient. Like as soon as you cross the GWB into NJ is where the transition zone might be. Could also be a case where the southern boroughs warm up while the NW Bronx remains mostly/all frozen I will easily take that. I prefer Sleet over FRZ anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 What are the text outputs for EWR on the 12z NAM yanks? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 While the surface temps are near or below freezing. Sleet fest? by hr 66 the surface temps are WAY above freezing - the entire column is under 800MB - see below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Setup remains me a bit of VD 2007, low was tucked into the coast but surface temperatures remained cold. Also If I recall correctly, the models back then trended colder with the surface temperatures as we got within 36-48 hours. Will be interesting to see if we get a similar trend here in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 What are the text outputs for EWR on the 12z NAM yanks? Thanks 5.2" of snow and 0.12" of ZR. They flip to plain rain for awhile and then back to freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS huggs the coast and eventually brings MTP up to 50 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah that panel is sleet NW of I-95. considering the 66 hr panel it would be brief for NYC and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Keep in mind that the text outputs show KEWR flipping to plain rain at 08z Sunday. Just NW of there it stays cold enough to support frozen or freezing throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll give the 12z NAM text outputs that I have for those interested. Not saying they are right. KMMU - 5.3" of snow and 0.15" of IP, 0.08"ZR KLGA - 5.6" of snow and 0.05" of IP, 0.0"ZR KSWF - 7.0" of snow and 0.25" of ZR. They flip back to snow at the end. KHPN - 6.6" of snow and 0.13" of IP, then 0.01"ZR KJFK - 4.4" of snow then 0.50"+ of plain rain KISP - 4.1" of snow then 0.50"+ of plain rain surprised at the high amounts for JFK and ISP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I fully expect Watches west of NYC with the afternoon update, depending on what the Euro shows. The combination of 4-6" of snow with the added ZR threat should be enough to pull the trigger. They might even go watches in the city. I think they will most likely hoist watches tomorrow morning. I think the City has a chance of a WSW but a WWA is most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 MMU looks really ugly with ZR through 6z. SFC 991 144 -0.9 -1.2 98 0.2 -1.0 21 12 272.9 273.5 272.6 282.4 3.53 2 950 485 1.5 1.3 99 0.2 1.4 65 21 278.7 279.4 277.0 290.8 4.42 3 900 924 4.0 3.5 97 0.5 3.7 128 19 285.6 286.5 281.7 300.9 5.46 4 850 1388 2.8 2.3 96 0.5 2.6 180 20 289.1 290.0 283.1 304.3 5.32 5 800 1877 0.4 -0.1 97 0.4 0.1 209 25 291.5 292.4 283.5 305.3 4.76 6 750 2392 -2.8 -2.9 100 0.0 -2.9 219 28 293.5 294.2 283.7 305.6 4.13 NYC has the cold scoured out much sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 by hr 66 the surface temps are WAY above freezing - the entire column is under 800MB - see below ace how does hr 63 look? also if you could do snow growth. thanks hr 66 surface maps are clearly rain for the city-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 considering the 66 hr panel it would be brief for NYC and LI The NAM gives KEWR 0.12" of ZR in a two hour period from hours 65 and 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 surprised at the high amounts for JFK and ISP High ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think they will most likely hoist watches tomorrow morning. I think the City has a chance of a WSW but a WWA is most likely. I'm referring to watches, and they usually go out 48 hours in advance if confidence is high enough. Expect watches this afternoon, especially from Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah that panel is sleet NW of I-95. also at 925 there isnt enough time for it to re-freeze as sleet. It would be ZR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 High ratios? Ratios are like 15 or 17 to 1 at times at JFK and that's likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The coast isn't that far away from an all snow event. We need the low to bomb out a little more off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ace how does hr 63 look? also if you could do snow growth. thanks hr 66 surface maps are clearly rain for the city-east unfortunately, Plymouth doesnt do 3 hour intervals anyone know if a site that does? Snow growth is fine at hr 54 h7 temps are -11-12 early on. The 60 hr panel has them at -8ish...not horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 0.34" falls as frozen on the 12z NAM per the text output and produces 4.4" of snow so that's almost 13:1 average at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 High ratios? for sure not based on the thermal profiles - my comment was basically saying those number were wrong here is hr 60 at JFK...surface is above zero and the column isnt ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NYC has the cold scoured out much sooner We are closer to the low which is further west on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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