Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 60 mod snow into area…secondary over eastern nc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 63 ice for the 95 area and snow north of i-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hour 63 heavy snow, the 850 and surface freezing lines are literally crossed right over NYC with the 850mb freezing line still south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 60 mod snow into area…secondary over eastern nc.. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I find it fascinating that the surface freezing line barely moves throughout the whole event, yet the 850mb freezing line starts south of DC and ends up well into Upstate NY by early morning hours Sunday. One hell of a CAD setup. It's low level cold air drainage because of the arctic high to the north. The warm air advection will always win in some sort of way, whether it's a thin tongue of warm air or not. But the surface cold can still hang on away from the coast. See Valentines Day 07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hour 66 lots and lots of ZR NW of I-95, plain rain south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's low level cold air drainage because of the arctic high to the north. The warm air advection will always win in some sort of way, whether it's a thin tongue of warm air or not. But the surface cold can still hang on away from the coast. See Valentines Day 07. Yeah I remember that one well. I believe that's the last time a lot of the area saw ice storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GFS is much stronger with the surface low..heavy precipitation now compared to lighter stuff at 06z. This run is at the very least a thump of warning level snows for much of Northern NJ and probably advisory level for NYC. Big run for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 this run gives areas just outside 95 a good amount of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hour 66 lots and lots of ZR NW of I-95, plain rain south of there. By the time the warm air comes up, the storm looks to be pulling out of here. Most of the storm on this run is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GFS is not as tucked into the coast as the NAM but it's definitely more tucked in than it's prior run and the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's low level cold air drainage because of the arctic high to the north. The warm air advection will always win in some sort of way, whether it's a thin tongue of warm air or not. But the surface cold can still hang on away from the coast. See Valentines Day 07.The surface never even went above freezing even in NYC, we had like 6 inches of sleet in Brooklyn (I don't think it melted yet ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 By the time the warm air comes up, the storm looks to be pulling out of here. Most of the storm on this run is snow. Not near the coastal plain, it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 By the time the warm air comes up, the storm looks to be pulling out of here. Most of the storm on this run is snow. I counted at least 6 hours of moderate precip NW of I-95 with 850's warm and the surface below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Liking the stronger trend on the 12z GFS. If hour 66 stayed all snow, it would have been pretty much perfect for all of Northern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not near the coastal plain, it's not. Towards the end it's plain rain. The 32 degree line is right near the City throughout the storm. Either way, this looks like an advisory snowfall which everyone should be happy about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Snow maps show 1-2" for Long Island, 2-4" for the city and immediate NJ suburbs. 4-6" for the rest of NJ and NY counties outside of Weschester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Towards the end it's plain rain. The 32 degree line is right near the City throughout the storm. I doubt it. As the really heavy precip starts, the warm air surges in, so up to maybe 3z is favorable for us. After that is almost certainly rain. We have maybe 0.5" liquid fallen before that though. This wasn't a great GFS run for us. For us, we want a weaker and progressive storm that can't surge east winds and warm air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Towards the end it's plain rain. The 32 degree line is right near the City throughout the storm. Either way, this looks like an advisory snowfall which everyone should be happy about. Don't forget that you're looking at crappy ratios. Hour 63 still looks like snow for most but 850's are warm and you're probably looking at 6 or 8 to 1 or even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Snow maps show 1-2" for Long Island, 2-4" for the city and immediate NJ suburbs. 4-6" for the rest of NJ and NY counties outside of Weschester. Amazing how these different algorithms play to each model. You'd think a 6-10" snowstorm was on the way if you looked only at WxBell snowfall maps (which I fear some do). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I doubt it. As the really heavy precip starts, the warm air surges in, so up to maybe 3z is favorable for us. After that is almost certainly rain. We have maybe 0.5" liquid fallen before that though. This wasn't a great GFS run for us. For us, we want a weaker and progressive storm that can't surge east winds and warm air in. It's hard to get a prolonged period of frozen precipitation in this type of setup if you live near the coastal plain. The southeast winds are going to be the shift of death once they go that way. It's much easier to hold on to frozen precipitation when you're just west of the city and dealing with better cold air drainage. I think there could be a really sharp cutoff...someone west of the Watchung mountains could easily get 6+" and then freezing rain on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll take a nice crust of ice on top of 4-6" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Amazing how these different algorithms play to each model. You'd think a 6-10" snowstorm was on the way if you looked only at WxBell snowfall maps (which I fear some do). I almost never look at any snow map, and even then only for amusement. I look at soundings for real analysis only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Amazing how these different algorithms play to each model. You'd think a 6-10" snowstorm was on the way if you looked only at WxBell snowfall maps (which I fear some do). I don't put to much stock into them. According to mine I should have about a 12" snowpack already on the ground this year. I think the ratios are going to be crappy, especially for near and around NYC and I think the ZR threat inland is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The heaviest precip of the whole event falls while NW of I-95 is flipping to ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GFS brings mixing to our doorstep by around 7pm Saturday. That ZR pocket looks pretty nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 2-4" is a reasonable forecast now for NYC, probably on the lower end for SI and the southern half of Brooklyn and Queens. NW of I95 could have some serious icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The heaviest precip of the whole event falls while NW of I-95 is flipping to ZR. Some spots could get 3-6 hours of icing from around 0z-6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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