Joe4alb Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That still makes zero sense. upton doesnt forecast for that junction, and if the areas above 78 are going to do well, how is Upton too high? Because Upton is calling for 2 - 4 and 3 - 5 amounts on LI and NYC. But that is too high. Areas at of above 78 will see that and more. "...WITH NYC AND LONG ISLAND SEEING AMOUNTS OF 2-4 OR 3-5 INCHES." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 where do you find the snow maps for the models? is that on a paid site? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Because Upton is calling for 2 - 4 and 3 - 5 amounts on LI and NYC. But that is too high. Areas at of above 78 will see that and more. "...WITH NYC AND LONG ISLAND SEEING AMOUNTS OF 2-4 OR 3-5 INCHES." Manhattan is above 78. Now what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 What's with the reliance on snow maps here, which 90% of the time are wrong? I could care less about a snow map, use soundings instead. And those at least favor frozen for the vast majority of the area until 10pm, even on this run which is still likely too tucked into the coast with the redevelopment. The redevelopment is much more robust than all the other modeling, but it's the first of the 12z suite so far. I'm not looking at snow maps. This is hour 66 which very clearly shows the city and LI above freezing at all levels. If you get more than 2" from this storm it will be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The redevelopment is much more robust than all the other modeling, but it's the first of the 12z suite so far. I'm not looking at snow maps. This is hour 66 which very clearly shows the city and LI above freezing at all levels ok , now go pull out the GFS and Euro and tell me u buy the NAM at 66 hours over the 2 globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Manhattan is above 78. Now what? Very True! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 ok , now go pull out the GFS and Euro and tell me u buy the NAM at 66 hours over the 2 globals I'll wait to see what the 12z runs show since the 00z runs are now old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ok , now go pull out the GFS and Euro and tell me u buy the NAM at 66 hours over the 2 globals The more seasoned members/mets on this board know to use the NAM cautiously over the global models unless something is wrong. The NAM i dont even look at ( as far as an actual forecast goes ) until its within 48 hours, even that may be pushing it sometimes. Im going with a euro/gfs combination right now unless something convinces me strongly otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Did you even see the other guidance? Yes. The Euro shows 2-4" for the city. I'll take the under, precip is much lighter than what the NAM shows due to a further offshore track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The point is this: (which the NAM clearly show's almost perfectly) Upton's amounts of 6-8 inches in Union County NJ are likely too high. If you assume that statement to be true, you have to cut back totals as well for the surrounding counties as well. Staten Island seeing 3-5 inches is too high, which means Manhattan and surrounding Burroughs is too high. Manhattan is above 78. Now what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The more seasoned members/mets on this board know to use the NAM cautiously over the global models unless something is wrong. The NAM i dont even look at ( as far as an actual forecast goes ) until its within 48 hours, even that may be pushing it sometimes. Im going with a euro/gfs combination right now unless something convinces me strongly otherwise The NAM has been awful lately, but I think it has an advantage with the lighter WAA precip coming up through PA. Almost all of the snow on the Euro falls with that initial shot and very little with the coastal itself. If that WAA is a broken up as depicted by the 4k NAM, going to be a lot of people crying bust on Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Furthermore, the primary was a lot weaker this run on the NAM which lessened the WAA precip but we were saved by a stronger closer to the coast track of the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Those by the coast better hope so because the 12z NAM is like a coating to heavy rain for coastal sections. Which coast? What are you looking at? 12z NAM is still a 3-5" snowfall before change over for LI. It's voluminous posts like the above that make this thread nearly unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The redevelopment is much more robust than all the other modeling, but it's the first of the 12z suite so far. I'm not looking at snow maps. This is hour 66 which very clearly shows the city and LI above freezing at all levels. If you get more than 2" from this storm it will be surprising. I agree with you about 66 hours. Those lines advance very quickly after 3z, at which point those areas are still below freezing. I'm not expecting anything major here, but it's wrong to say the NAM showed nothing or almost nothing for the city and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM just made a complete shift in the handling of upper air features in the last 12 hours. Not sure why there is an entire page of bickering dedicated to a model outside of its useful time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Which coast? What are you looking at? 12z NAM is still a 3-5" snowfall before change over for LI. It's voluminous posts like the above that make this thread nearly unreadable. Not the versions I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The 12z GFS is stronger with the WAA push and has snow almost to western PA by 06z Saturday. The NAM barely has anything into Ohio at the same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The point is this: (which the NAM clearly show's almost perfectly) Upton's amounts of 6-8 inches in Union County NJ are likely too high. If you assume that statement to be true, you have to cut back totals as well for the surrounding counties as well. Staten Island seeing 3-5 inches is too high, which means Manhattan and surrounding Burroughs is too high. Thank you for the clarification. I dont necessarily agree, but I understand what you meant now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 through hr 42 gfs looks further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 48 primary low in Alabama…overrunning seems weaker… .01+ stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Low transfer off the Del Marva at hour 75. Moderate precip in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 I find it fascinating that the surface freezing line barely moves throughout the whole event, yet the 850mb freezing line starts south of DC and ends up well into Upstate NY by early morning hours Sunday. One hell of a CAD setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Alot of the members here are snow weenies and love winter like myself. However, some have blinders and either hope for rainy forecasts or hug them and others just hug the whiter/ colder models. Either way it is not too constructive as of now. A few red taggers here and there are contributing vital information even PB GFI who i think is a very intelligent non-met. Earthlight does a good job cleaning these threads up as a good moderator so it will get better today and throughout the season. Back to NAM. It is documented it has its warm bias, too wet and over amped at times. Truth be told probably one of our most inconsistent models of the bunch. Should it be totally dismissed? No it should not. However, as stated previously the GFS/EURO have the right idea in that i think there gauging the CAD more accurately with this fresh and very cold air mass coming from canada. We've seen models under-forecast cold this season thus far and from a glance looks like models are adjusting to this already. The warm nose i think may still end up being a problem no matter how cold the models do get, but i think plain rain even down to the coast should not be an issue, mixing probably but thats it. I think it really comes down to the track of the secondary feature and if winds veer to easterly near the coast for effects there. There will likely be a change to sleet or even ZR because of the 850 low over the Midwest and associated mid level warm layer, but I'm not sure the surface cold air gets removed unless the wind shifts to east on Saturday night. In that case we could see temps rocket toward 40 and we get rained on for a while. So the track and intensity of the secondary feature is important for us. Also, we have to hope for maximizing the snow we get on the front end with the overrunning-if that goes over our head into CT instead, we'll get maybe a few inches max. Inland looks like they will almost certainly have a period if ice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 15z sat light snow in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Low transfer off the Del Marva at hour 75. Moderate precip in the NYC area. You have it to hour 75 already? SV only out to 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 54 18z saturday steady snow about to move into area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 is it so difficult to wait 15 minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hour 57 looks like the Euro. Light to moderate snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Honestly, we shouldn't even be having this discussion here ... but how realistic do you think it is with a "science" like meteorology to not have differences in opinions and discussion points about different perspectives on the models, model interpretation, and forecasts? I've come to expect differences in opinions and I'm ok with that. Just my 2 cents. There's nothing wrong with having debates. The problem now is that we have way too much bickering over what a model is actually showing. Its rain no its snow I'm getting 6" no you're getting an inch. This is what needs to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hour 60 here comes the heavier precip and the warm punch. Surface freezing line to the city. 850's still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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