PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 They don't have EWR, but HPN is 4.1" of snow followed by freezing rain. prec.png Thank you , Looks like the guys west of the CT river valley could wind up with a Foot of snow if this is right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thank you , Looks like the guys west of the CT river valley could wind up with a Foot of snow if this is right . Sneaky WAA for HPN at 900 mb. SFC 1001 106 -1.5 -1.9 98 0.3 -1.7 27 12 271.5 272.1 271.4 280.5 3.32 1 1000 117 -1.3 -1.6 97 0.3 -1.4 34 15 271.9 272.4 271.8 281.0 3.39 2 950 526 -0.9 -1.1 99 0.2 -1.0 76 20 276.3 276.9 274.8 286.5 3.72 3 900 960 1.5 1.3 99 0.1 1.4 134 21 283.0 283.8 279.6 296.1 4.68 4 850 1421 0.5 0.3 99 0.1 0.4 174 23 286.6 287.4 281.2 299.7 4.61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thank you , Looks like the guys west of the CT river valley could wind up with a Foot of snow if this is right . Does LI get high end advisory criteria snow and ZR, and stay at 32 or slightly lower for warmest part of event on 6Z GFS ? If we keep trending colder today, it is a locked warning event for NYC and LI. Damming cold high is perfect to get ZR down to LI southshore, and keep ZR going right to the coast. Early 1/1994 ice event again ? If I had to guess a LI south shore forecast, it would be 2-4 inches of snow followed by .50 inch ice glaze... Warning event due to ZR. It really looks like an ice storm for the immediate coast with WAA in the 900 to 850 mb levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GFS is in fair agreement with Uptons map, maybe a sharper cutoff near the coast. The Euro is also fairly similar. Generally 6-8" from the watchung mountains northwest, 3-6" over the city and immediate burbs, and less near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 An overview the GFS soundings on the Bufkit show for NYC area start off very cold with good snow growth and ratios as high 15 to 1 on Saturday. Then Saturday evening snow growth and ratios worsen. And there is warm nose at 900-950mb with E/SE winds. that changes us to IP/ZR around 10pm Saturday. We see about 3-4" of snow before the changeover. The GFS keeps winds N/NE. So surface temps might be too warm. Otherwise it looks reasonable to me. MMU, HPN also have warm nose Saturday night, around 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 An overview the GFS soundings on the Bufkit show for NYC area start off very cold with good snow growth and ratios as high 15 to 1 on Saturday. Then Sunday evening snow growth and ratios worsen. And there is warm nose at 900-950mb with E/SE winds. that changes us to IP/ZR around 10pm Saturday. We see about 3-4" of snow before the changeover. The GFS keeps winds N/NE. So surface temps might be too warm. Otherwise it looks reasonable to me. MMU, HPN also have warm nose Saturday night, around 900mb. Did you mean Saturday evening or Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm more concerned about cold air drainage in the immediate suburbs than anything else. As long as the primary surface low drives as far north as most models indicate, there's going to be a mid level warm tongue moving northward by Sunday morning. But in the suburbs, the cold air is deeper and more entrenched in the low levels than near the coast. So there could definitely be an extended period of IP or ZR and that could create significant travel concerns amongst other things, when on top of 4-6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Did you mean Saturday evening or Sunday? Saturday evening. Edited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm more concerned about cold air drainage in the immediate suburbs than anything else. As long as the primary surface low drives as far north as most models indicate, there's going to be a mid level warm tongue moving northward by Sunday morning. But in the suburbs, the cold air is deeper and more entrenched in the low levels than near the coast. So there could definitely be an extended period of IP or ZR and that could create significant travel concerns amongst other things, when on top of 4-6" of snow. The last few runs of the euro and gfs have not brought the surface line that far west of 95 and the 06z gfs being the coldest run yet. This airmass will not leave the suburbs very quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Whatever isn't cleaned up Sunday will freeze solid with teens Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm more concerned about cold air drainage in the immediate suburbs than anything else. As long as the primary surface low drives as far north as most models indicate, there's going to be a mid level warm tongue moving northward by Sunday morning. But in the suburbs, the cold air is deeper and more entrenched in the low levels than near the coast. So there could definitely be an extended period of IP or ZR and that could create significant travel concerns amongst other things, when on top of 4-6" of snow. And you can make the argument that .3 ICE on top of 4 inches of snow with temps in the 20`s are far worse than 6 inches of snow . Secondly one thing I would continue to watch , this system has gotten wetter and colder . Something to watch over the next 24 hours , the Canadian is the furthest south . So curious to see if this trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 And you can make the argument that .3 ICE on top of 4 inches of snow with temps in the 20`s are far worse than 6 inches of snow . Secondly one thing I would continue to watch , this system has gotten wetter and colder . Something to watch over the next 24 hours , the Canadian is the furthest south . So curious to see if this trend continues That has been the theme with this storm so far. Getting colder and wetter todays model runs are going to maybe solidify that trend in my opinion. Being im on the coast though i still dont thing we'll get anything noteworthy but if trends continue it may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm more concerned about cold air drainage in the immediate suburbs than anything else. As long as the primary surface low drives as far north as most models indicate, there's going to be a mid level warm tongue moving northward by Sunday morning. But in the suburbs, the cold air is deeper and more entrenched in the low levels than near the coast. So there could definitely be an extended period of IP or ZR and that could create significant travel concerns amongst other things, when on top of 4-6" of snow. I agree about the mid-level warm tounge. The 850mb and 925mb lows especially are hanging out too long to our west. What interesting on the GFS Bufkit is that LGA gets colder at surface during Sunday AM changes back to some freezing rain,before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 At this point, I just don't see much in the way of accumulating snow for areas south of Rt. 287/78 juncture. Yes, there will be precipitation that falls during a time that the column is supportive of snowfall; however, most of NWP show significantly disorganized areas of precipitation, which normally spells trouble for snowfall. I think we're looking at a mix at best during the first 1/3 or 1/4 of this event for the NYC metro and C NJ. Almost all of the recent NWP looks quite wet for this area. I would be interested to see Don's take on the climatology/statistics of occurrences of snowfall on days when there is a snow depth >1 inch for various reporting stations. I suspect that the occurrence is quite low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm thinking 2-4 here in Brooklyn...we'll almost certainly get above freezing with the strong WAA and high drifiting east, but the antecedent airmass is very cold. Looking at high temperatures below freezing here today and tomorrow with lows in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Upton going with 6-8" for interior NJ into NW areas. WSW criteria verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Compared to Mt Holly's idea...they are in decent agreement, but they can't both be right. Although there is only a one inch difference between the low range from okx office and the high range from phi office. : AS OF NOW, WE HAVE 2-5 INCHES OF SNOWBASICALLY FROM INTERSTATE 95 NORTH AND WEST WITH THE GREATESTAMOUNTS TOWARD THE POCONOS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE A TENTH OF ANINCH OR LESS ATTM. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLYQUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. Upton going with 6-8" for interior NJ into NW areas. WSW criteria verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's amazing that we are even having all these events along with the cold when the NAO/AO are positive, the AO is forecast to be raging positive greater than +4 in a few days. Clearly the EPO is in charge compared to all the other indices and the AO, NAO, and PNA all play second fiddle to it. Hopefully we could get more of a +PNA though because it could really help us get a bigger event over here, it's trying to go more positive on the latest indices forecast. As for this event, 4-6" with some ice on top is probably a good call, and can be adjusted with more model runs today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm thinking 2-4 here in Brooklyn...we'll almost certainly get above freezing with the strong WAA and high drifiting east, but the antecedent airmass is very cold. Looking at high temperatures below freezing here today and tomorrow with lows in the teens. I think if the initial WAA snows affect us, we could see the high end of that, maybe 4-6". If the initial overrunning overshoots us and goes mostly through SNE, we will likely have only 2-3". But I'm liking the colder model trends, maybe we can salvage this with very little plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The initial shot of WAA precip is going to be more focused near Binghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Here are the top analog events at hour 60 - there are a few ice events listed which leads one to believe there might be significant ice with this event http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F060&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Light snow or virga moves in at 18z Saturday per the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM is weaker with the primary low so I would assume there would be less dramatic warm air advection on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Light to moderate snow hour 57, at hour 60 coastal precip starting to advance northward. Looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Light snow or virga moves in at 18z Saturday per the 12z NAM. I do think some of the initial precip will get eaten up by dry air--interesting that the Nam is starting to show that. This airmass is cold and dewpoints will be very low to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 I do think some of the initial precip will get eaten up by dry air--interesting that the Nam is starting to show that. This airmass is cold and dewpoints will be very low to start It's not really showing that, but the intensity is very light to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That 850 low in the midwest still concerns me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Really cool to see 2m temperatures getting colder and draining south into Northern NJ even as the mid levels warm a bit at 60 hours. This is a really cold low level airmass over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 That 850 low in the midwest still concerns me: Without that low we have no WAA snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Really cool to see 2m temperatures getting colder and draining south into Northern NJ even as the mid levels warm a bit at 60 hours. This is a really cold low level airmass over New England. Agreed good ll cold. Mid levels look like they want to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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