Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ggem looks to be all snow for nw jersey Colder from the city and N&W as well. Pretty good period of heavy snow even down to PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The one signal evident on many models is that initial lead WAA wave may end up north of most of the area, I could easily see places like POU/MSV/AVP snowing a good 4-6 hours before us, we'll eventually get ours but that added lead wave up north could produce some crazy totals there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Colder from the city and N&W as well. Pretty good period of heavy snow even down to PHL. You got a link or a pic : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You got a link or a pic : ) http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.htmlThat's all snow NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Seems like 95 is the snow/rain line on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That's all snow NW of the city. Northern NYC/Southern Westchester gets Heavy Snow for 5 to 6 hours, 4 Hours of Moderate Snow, 3 Hours of Very Heavy Snow and then a couple of hours of FRZ. Then 2 to 3 hours of Light Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Colder from the city and N&W as well. Pretty good period of heavy snow even down to PHL. Its an improvement from the GGEM, but like Snowgoose said, we miss the initial WAA to our north. The R/S line in directly on top of PHL and NYC, it's mostly rain in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Its an improvement from the GGEM, but like Snowgoose said, we miss the initial WAA to our north. The R/S line in directly on top of PHL and NYC, it's mostly rain in the cities. Incorrect. At least for NYC. 15mm LE as snow (0.6in) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Incorrect. At least for NYC. 15mm LE as snow (0.6in) Correct, it looked like 6mm for NYC. But it's closer to 15mm upon further review. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Do any of you think south shore Nassau County LI, has any chance for warning criteria snow/ice, with high placement, NE winds and WAA patterns ? Could we avoid a change of rain till the last two hours of event ?? Can we maybe cash in for the early WAA snows that some fear to our north? 00Z 12/12 GGEM and GFS look to be near warning criteria WSW stuff for Long Island ?? I feel very good for this event. I think the Pacific -WPO and reloading -EPO and the coldest Arctic/Siberian airmasses poised on our side of the world for endless weeks ahead ensures a Blockbuster beginning to end winter... Locked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 closer look at the GGEM, precip pretty much done after the last panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro is a hit for LI/NYC/NNJ. 0.5-0.6 basically all snow. Very cold at the onset of precip too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro has .50 +precip for nyc which is mostly snow. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 0Z Euro looking pretty good. At hour 78 the 0C 850 line runs from around TTN to Sandy Hook, NJ with the bulk of the precip having fallen. The surface freezing line runs from about Long Island sound to JUST NW of I-95. Around 0.50-0.60" or so of mainly frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 FYI, for anyone curious about the weenie snow maps, they are printing out 3-4" for much of Long Isand, 4-5" for the 5 boroughs, and 5-7" for all of Northern NJ from Middlesex/Mercer counties on north, including the far NW crew in NW NJ and upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 FYI, for anyone curious about the weenie snow maps, they are printing out 3-4" for much of Long Isand, 4-5" for the 5 boroughs, and 5-7" for all of Northern NJ from Middlesex/Mercer counties on north, including the far NW crew in NW NJ and upstate NY. thanks, seems similar to the GGEM. Nice consensus (apart from the NAM) for at least a moderate to significant winter storm for most of our region on the 0z model suite tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 thanks, seems similar to the GGEM. Nice consensus (apart from the NAM) for at least a moderate to significant winter storm for most of our region on the 0z model suite tonight No problem. And yea, it looks like a pretty solid consensus for a 3-6" event for a good majority of the area. The 0z models seemed to bump up the QPF totals ever so slightly. Hopefully that trend continues, but I'd happily sign up for 3-6" considering it's only December 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Maybe a 2-3" event for most of us ? There doesn't seem to be any real heavy banding showing up on the models like in the last couple events, and a switch to rain is possible, with at least a warming of the temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gfs is even colder and snowier to start. 06z that is, I doubt I-95 goes above frz on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off NWS OKX thinking 2-4 or 3-5 for NYC and LI; and 5-7 NW and southern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gfs is even colder and snowier to start. 06z that is, I doubt I-95 goes above frz on that run Yes it is no doubt colder and snowier... that's a solid warning event for at least NW of city and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yes it is no doubt colder and snowier... that's a solid warning event for at least NW of city and CT And their first snow map. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 6z GFS all out Snow , for much of the region , NYC and N , 850s gets to NYC , and head East , most surface temps remain below 0C It has trended colder again and prints out close to 6 inches in NYC and more NW Don't think theres much plain rain with this system , there should be some sleet and FRZ on the south side towards the end , but below I show total precip . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Closing in on an inch of Liquid , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 These are the warmest surface temps on the GFS at HR 72 , they are colder at HR 60 and HR 66 when more than half the precip has already fallen , and are colder at HR 78 , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS has 3.2" of snow at LGA followed by sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS has 3.2" of snow at LGA followed by sleet and freezing rain. prec.png What`s EWR look like ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 6z gfs snow map has 6" or more approx from Somerville, Flemington on the sw side to newark airport and the Hudson River on the east side.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 What`s EWR look like ? They don't have EWR, but HPN is 4.1" of snow followed by freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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