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Weekend Threat 12/14-12/15


IsentropicLift

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just looking of sv maps the surface 32 line does not get that far west of 95 if at all….really cold air we are going to have here…the high is in a better spot this run...

Even for me it might snow for quite a while, and might not rain much except at the end if the cold air verifies like this. We'd all start the event in the low 20s.

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Even for me it might snow for quite a while, and might not rain much except at the end if the cold air verifies like this. We'd all start the event in the low 20s.

 

Yeah if the secondary was  a little bit stronger  or the gfs was a bit too warm we prob would not see much rain. Its very interesting set-up for so early on in december. How do soundings look for snow growth etc on saturday?

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Snowfall maps look almost identical to 18z. This is a 2 - 4" type deal with rain or ice at end.

Remember nothing is guaranteed in weather forecasting.  The other day we went from 1-2" to 2-4" to 3-5" and wound up with 1-2" that melted fairly quickly.  In these types of over-running situations nowcasting plays a part to see the location of heavier snow banding,  the rain/snow line and the back end of the precip.  That day we under-performed..so maybe this time we will over-perform.

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Remember nothing is guaranteed in weather forecasting. The other day we went from 1-2" to 2-4" to 3-5" and wound up with 1-2" that melted fairly quickly. In these types of over-running situations nowcasting plays a part to see the location of heavier snow banding, the rain/snow line and the back end of the precip. That day we under-performed..so maybe this time we will over-perform.

Surface temperatures were the main issue with that storm, we're pretty much guaranteed to start with MUCH colder temperatures this time around.
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on December 21st 1962 NYC had a minimum of ten degrees...Snow developed in the late afternoon and continued into the early morning hours of the 22nd...the winds were ese and the temperature hit 28 at midnight and the mid 30's by Sunrise...Snow turned to rain after 2.7" fell in NYC...0.54" of precipitation for the event...I'm not sure if the Saturday event is similar but it shows it doesn't matter how cold it is at the start of the storm...it can still get warm enough to rain...December 20th 1964 was another event that started as snow and accumulated 3" before ending as a little rain and drizzle...events like these are pretty good for this time of year...

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Remember nothing is guaranteed in weather forecasting.  The other day we went from 1-2" to 2-4" to 3-5" and wound up with 1-2" that melted fairly quickly.  In these types of over-running situations nowcasting plays a part to see the location of heavier snow banding,  the rain/snow line and the back end of the precip.  That day we under-performed..so maybe this time we will over-perform.

There were plenty of people that got 2-5" as forecasted

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on December 21st 1962 NYC had a minimum of ten degrees...Snow developed in the late afternoon and continued into the early morning hours of the 22nd...the winds were ese and the temperature hit 28 at midnight and the mid 30's by Sunrise...Snow turned to rain after 2.7" fell in NYC...0.54" of precipitation for the event...I'm not sure if the Saturday event is similar but it shows it doesn't matter how cold it is at the start of the storm...it can still get warm enough to rain...December 20th 1964 was another event that started as snow and accumulated 3" before ending as a little rain and drizzle...events like these are pretty good for this time of year...

 

Just look at what evolved on 1/2/99 for all the proof you'll ever need for that.

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on December 21st 1962 NYC had a minimum of ten degrees...Snow developed in the late afternoon and continued into the early morning hours of the 22nd...the winds were ese and the temperature hit 28 at midnight and the mid 30's by Sunrise...Snow turned to rain after 2.7" fell in NYC...0.54" of precipitation for the event...I'm not sure if the Saturday event is similar but it shows it doesn't matter how cold it is at the start of the storm...it can still get warm enough to rain...December 20th 1964 was another event that started as snow and accumulated 3" before ending as a little rain and drizzle...events like these are pretty good for this time of year...

I remember a day in Jan 1994 (maybe Jan 17) it was about 8 degrees in the AM with a storm approaching, the high for the day was 47 and we received a lot of rain....

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Just look at what evolved on 1/2/99 for all the proof you'll ever need for that.

 

the Jan 1994 example has a greater diff between the low and high

 

in a matter of just over 24 hours it went from 3 degrees to 47 in Central Park one day later it was -2, the last sub zero day we have had in NYC

 

another example, January 27 1994 had a low of 0, Jan 28 high was 55...man was that month insane. 

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I remember a day in Jan 1994 (maybe Jan 17) it was about 8 degrees in the AM with a storm approaching, the high for the day was 47 and we received a lot of rain....

 

Thats actually even better than my 1/2/99 example, that was a big time cutting system ahead of the arctic outbreak, we actually snowed that morning for awhile.

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there was a storm I believe in late January in the late 70s...was it 78....very cold over night snow started early morning maybe 4 inches and that got warmer and went to all rain later in the day and at night..anyone remember this one. I remember it because my parents had a 20th wedding anniversary party at our house that night

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