rossi Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 78 coast looks to be rain…nw jersey def getting frz rain…precept looks to be ending after this hr All snow can you breakout accumulations for coast and northwest? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 by hr 75 when the change over begins, looks like .4 has fallen as snow..give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Coast looks like 3-5 more further inland obv maybe only 1-3 east end and south shore. Inland looks like maybe 4-6 and Then ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 All snow can you breakout accumulations for coast and northwest? Rossi Educated guess says 6-9 NW and 3-6 City & Queens WLI . 2-4 Eastern end ( with rain mixed in city & east) based on details he posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 the way things look now advisory event for the city and coast 3-5/ice/rain warning for inland areas 4-8 and good amount of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 the way things look now advisory event for the city and coast 3-5/ice/rain warning for inland areas 4-8 and good amount of ice Whats total precip? Ncep is not updating, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 the way things look now advisory event for the city and coast 3-5/ice/rain warning for inland areas 4-8 and good amount of ice How much ice inland? On my phone. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Whats total precip? Ncep is not upcating. .5+ for metro area .75+ eastern long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 .5+ for metro area .75+ eastern long island Assuming less NW of the city? I hate ncep. Thanks by they way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yes...2-4" then mix...nothing wrong with that I for one do not want any prolonged mix. Give us all snow or all rain. Icy mix is just dangerous and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 How much ice inland? On my phone. Thanks I'd say it's about .5" for snow and .2" of ice... Just using a cursory approach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Assuming less NW of the city? I hate ncep. Thanks by they way. .5+ stretches all the way back to buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 just looking off sv maps the surface 32 line does not get that far west of 95 if at all….really cold air we are going to have here…the high is in a better spot this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Snowfall maps look almost identical to 18z. This is a 2 - 4" type deal with rain or ice at end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 just looking of sv maps the surface 32 line does not get that far west of 95 if at all….really cold air we are going to have here…the high is in a better spot this run... Even for me it might snow for quite a while, and might not rain much except at the end if the cold air verifies like this. We'd all start the event in the low 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Even for me it might snow for quite a while, and might not rain much except at the end if the cold air verifies like this. We'd all start the event in the low 20s. Yeah if the secondary was a little bit stronger or the gfs was a bit too warm we prob would not see much rain. Its very interesting set-up for so early on in december. How do soundings look for snow growth etc on saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Snowfall maps look almost identical to 18z. This is a 2 - 4" type deal with rain or ice at end. Remember nothing is guaranteed in weather forecasting. The other day we went from 1-2" to 2-4" to 3-5" and wound up with 1-2" that melted fairly quickly. In these types of over-running situations nowcasting plays a part to see the location of heavier snow banding, the rain/snow line and the back end of the precip. That day we under-performed..so maybe this time we will over-perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Remember nothing is guaranteed in weather forecasting. The other day we went from 1-2" to 2-4" to 3-5" and wound up with 1-2" that melted fairly quickly. In these types of over-running situations nowcasting plays a part to see the location of heavier snow banding, the rain/snow line and the back end of the precip. That day we under-performed..so maybe this time we will over-perform.Surface temperatures were the main issue with that storm, we're pretty much guaranteed to start with MUCH colder temperatures this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 on December 21st 1962 NYC had a minimum of ten degrees...Snow developed in the late afternoon and continued into the early morning hours of the 22nd...the winds were ese and the temperature hit 28 at midnight and the mid 30's by Sunrise...Snow turned to rain after 2.7" fell in NYC...0.54" of precipitation for the event...I'm not sure if the Saturday event is similar but it shows it doesn't matter how cold it is at the start of the storm...it can still get warm enough to rain...December 20th 1964 was another event that started as snow and accumulated 3" before ending as a little rain and drizzle...events like these are pretty good for this time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Remember nothing is guaranteed in weather forecasting. The other day we went from 1-2" to 2-4" to 3-5" and wound up with 1-2" that melted fairly quickly. In these types of over-running situations nowcasting plays a part to see the location of heavier snow banding, the rain/snow line and the back end of the precip. That day we under-performed..so maybe this time we will over-perform. There were plenty of people that got 2-5" as forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 All snow can you breakout accumulations for coast and northwest? Rossi Educated guess says 6-9 NW and 3-6 City & Queens WLI . 2-4 Eastern end ( with rain mixed in city & east) based on details he posted Eastern pa? Have limited data on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 on December 21st 1962 NYC had a minimum of ten degrees...Snow developed in the late afternoon and continued into the early morning hours of the 22nd...the winds were ese and the temperature hit 28 at midnight and the mid 30's by Sunrise...Snow turned to rain after 2.7" fell in NYC...0.54" of precipitation for the event...I'm not sure if the Saturday event is similar but it shows it doesn't matter how cold it is at the start of the storm...it can still get warm enough to rain...December 20th 1964 was another event that started as snow and accumulated 3" before ending as a little rain and drizzle...events like these are pretty good for this time of year... Just look at what evolved on 1/2/99 for all the proof you'll ever need for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 on December 21st 1962 NYC had a minimum of ten degrees...Snow developed in the late afternoon and continued into the early morning hours of the 22nd...the winds were ese and the temperature hit 28 at midnight and the mid 30's by Sunrise...Snow turned to rain after 2.7" fell in NYC...0.54" of precipitation for the event...I'm not sure if the Saturday event is similar but it shows it doesn't matter how cold it is at the start of the storm...it can still get warm enough to rain...December 20th 1964 was another event that started as snow and accumulated 3" before ending as a little rain and drizzle...events like these are pretty good for this time of year... I remember a day in Jan 1994 (maybe Jan 17) it was about 8 degrees in the AM with a storm approaching, the high for the day was 47 and we received a lot of rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Just look at what evolved on 1/2/99 for all the proof you'll ever need for that. the Jan 1994 example has a greater diff between the low and high in a matter of just over 24 hours it went from 3 degrees to 47 in Central Park one day later it was -2, the last sub zero day we have had in NYC another example, January 27 1994 had a low of 0, Jan 28 high was 55...man was that month insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I remember a day in Jan 1994 (maybe Jan 17) it was about 8 degrees in the AM with a storm approaching, the high for the day was 47 and we received a lot of rain.... Thats actually even better than my 1/2/99 example, that was a big time cutting system ahead of the arctic outbreak, we actually snowed that morning for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Just look at what evolved on 1/2/99 for all the proof you'll ever need for that. From 3 degrees to 33 and rain in like 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thats actually even better than my 1/2/99 example, that was a big time cutting system ahead of the arctic outbreak, we actually snowed that morning for awhile. I was in chicago then and we had 22" of snow. In 94 it went from 0 on the 27th to 55 on the 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ggem looks to be all snow for nw jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 there was a storm I believe in late January in the late 70s...was it 78....very cold over night snow started early morning maybe 4 inches and that got warmer and went to all rain later in the day and at night..anyone remember this one. I remember it because my parents had a 20th wedding anniversary party at our house that night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The 0z GFS suggests that NYC may see a period of freezing rain at 75hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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