sn0w Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I know the NAM is ****ty in this range, but had it transferred a tad bit earlier it would have been a huge run. As it is it was a pretty good run with what seems like 4-6" for most from overrunning, maybe some mixing/rain problems at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I know the NAM is ****ty in this range, but had it transferred a tad bit earlier it would have been a huge run. As it is it was a pretty good run with what seems like 4-6" for most from overrunning, maybe some mixing/rain problems at the coast. I presume you're speaking of the 12z or 18z run? 00z is still coming out now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 IMO it's do or die tonight. It's definitely getting tight... What are the chances of some fronto type banding a la the Sunday storm? Seems that dynamics could help some areas here, espeically w/ higher ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I presume you're speaking of the 12z or 18z run? 00z is still coming out now... Wow I'm a moron...it was the 18z I was looking at...brain fart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 IMO it's do or die tonight. you forgot about during the event itself and the surprises like the last 3 systems - models miss certain things that end up happening during the event like the almost foot of snow south of us - tuesday system the timing was too slow on the models for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM is a really nice overrunning snow for N and NW zones w/ some ice to follow. Juicy, but the NAM always tends to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 00z NAM is a quality front end dump followed by rain for all sections. Snow maps show 4-6 of snow for central and NW sections of NJ. 2-4" for NE NJ and 1-2" for the city, Long Island and Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 00z NAM is a quality front end dump followed by rain for all sections. Snow maps show 4-6 of snow for central and NW sections of NJ. 2-4" for NE NJ and 1-2" for the city, Long Island and Monmouth County. sounds similar to the last event - which seems reasonable BUT don't forget the surprises good or bad - also I feel that the HP is going to hold the cold in longer and the wide coverage of snowcover will help it do so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 another run another solution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 do you know where New York City is? do you know how to read a map? because it does not seem like you do. NYC sees 4-6" before changeover this run; the solution is the same for the entire immediate metro region, besides coastal Long Island & the Jersey Shore. NYC is changing over to rain around 75hr. I doubt there is more than 2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Wow the NAM is really wrapped and tucked into the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NYC is changing over to rain around 75hr. I doubt there is more than 2" of snow. East winds FTL... But it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM took a step to a much warmer solution-will be interesting to see what the rest of the 0z guidance does-this is either the NAM being the NAM or the beginning of the end for most folks in the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM took a step to a much warmer solution-will be interesting to see what the rest of the 0z guidance does-this is either the NAM being the NAM or the beginning of the end for most folks in the forum Its the nam at 75 hrs, my god please read what you just typed. We have two of the biggest weather models agreeing on a high end advisory event almost inside 72 hrs. This is a awful post from you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM took a step to a much warmer solution-will be interesting to see what the rest of the 0z guidance does-this is either the NAM being the NAM or the beginning of the end for most folks in the forum I think most people in here would be fine if we got an amped low so long as we got good overrunning snows initially, I'd take 3-4 inches and then some rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 East winds FTL... But it's the NAM. Yes. But the disco here earlier was how good it looked for wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think most people in here would be fine if we got an amped low so long as we got good overrunning snows initially, I'd take 3-4 inches and then some rain at the end. Yes...2-4" then mix...nothing wrong with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Its the nam at 75 hrs, my god please read what you just typed. We have two of the biggest weather models agreeing on a high end advisory event almost inside 72 hrs. This is a awful post from you!mNam is useless before 48hrs now a days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 m Nam is useless now a days Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Nam, though I highly doubt it goes that far west, is picking up on the primary moving into the great Lakes region (the same holds true for h7 levels also), which several of the models have. Even if the models paint snow for long Island, nyc and coastal CT, I would be somewhat leary of this solution as this will paint a waa scenario, which is notoriously bad for the tri-state area. As long as skew charts show the southerly and southeasterly fetch, I would remain skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 through hr 54 on 00z gfs don't seen many changes so far, a little bit slower if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 light snow moving into the area at 7am saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 light snow moving into the area at 7am saturday morning wonder if the cold dry air will eat up some of that initial precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 69 steady snow surface and 850's plenty cold…looks very similar to 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So much colder than the NAM (and a lot like the Euro). Seems a fairly good bet (this look)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 72 mod snow central nj…this is a wetter run surface south of 95 and 850's along dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 75 95 area goes to ice…nw prob still snow….north of i-80..nice dump of snow for the coast before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This is 6-8" or so in the N and NW zones. Nice solid event if this verified... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 78 coast looks to be rain…nw jersey def getting frz rain…precept looks to be ending after this hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 by 7am sunday its over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.