sn0w Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18Z GFS still a bit warm, but a little earlier transfer and we could be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18Z GFS still a bit warm, but a little earlier transfer and we could be in business. The models tend to rush storms at the Day 4-5 and beyond range, if thats the case here and we can give that big high in central Canada another 24 hours to get in place to our north this has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The models tend to rush storms at the Day 4-5 and beyond range, if thats the case here and we can give that big high in central Canada another 24 hours to get in place to our north this has potential. I think by wednesday/thursday the picture should be becoming alot clearer as far as where the players will be on the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Any info on what the 0z GFS showed for this potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Any info on what the 0z GFS showed for this potential? starts as some snow/ice then to rain…nothing to keep the high lock in and se ridge pumps…looks like a nice set-up for the upper midwest and sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Crapolla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Crapolla There's still plenty of time, it could easily trend a bit better or colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 0z GGEM snowmap has a thump of snow before it changes to rain,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 0z GGEM snowmap has a thump of snow before it changes to rain,. I like u and u seem like a great guy but these snow maps are crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I like u and u seem like a great guy but these snow maps are crap. I could see a scenario like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I like u and u seem like a great guy but these snow maps are crap. This far ahead, there is no point in paying much attention to the precip-type maps of any one given model because the track of this miller B type storm set-up is going to change several times between now and then, and the precip-type will change with it. That said, in this situation, finally, we have a cold high to the north which is NOT shown to bolt out into the ocean as quickly as the others have. And not only do we have the cold high to the north, but another incoming cold high to the north and west and they are all somewhat connected. So, the possibility for significant snow in this event I think is greater than what we have seen so far. Sill, with the missing ingredient, high lattitude blocking, the prospects for any snow can easily fall apart in many different ways. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 0z GFS has a Snow to ice scenario for the interior... 0z GGEM is snowier When I say interior I mean 40+ miles NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Light snow to rain for NYC on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Folks do you think Long Island has a chance for warning criteria snow 6-8 inches, and or ice 0.50" or greater for this event with much better cold high position keeping NE to NNE winds for the whole event ? Can we do it without the true 50/50 low and or the blocking, which they always say is critical for a MECS or a HECs ? I feel cautiously optimistic for a warning criteria event for even NYC and LI with the GGEM showing a very close potential. ECMWF is less enthused with 3-4 inches before very slow changeover to rain. If only we had a slight west based -NAO and -AO, this would have been a KU MECS / HECS Miller B event for most of the tri-state area and beyond, including all of the coast. If only we had that to lock in the chance for high level NESIS 4+ event. Reality is more for a NESIS 1 to possibly 2 event now without all favorable indexes. Cold high and -EPO could get the job done, just maybe ???? My call is 4-6 inches of snow on the coast before a change to ZR for 1-3 hours, and then a 34 degree cold rain for remaininf event, for NYC and LI. High level advisory event just shy of warning for snow and ice... My true call. We should all be ready for snow and ice removal again on the weekend to say the least. Mets and others, please chime in ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm not sure the system can cut with 2 separate pieces of the pv blocking it on the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Ralph, each GFS is run is slowly adjusting the low to the HP, it will continue to trend SE. Did EURO show a snow thump for us last night because there was some nice CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It still tries to but it's colder than the last run, I could see this turning into a miller B gradually. There's a huge amount of cold air around just to the north with an extension of the high pressure coming down to the northeast. I also could see it being a significant ice event as low level cold should be even stronger than the gfs depicts. On one hand it could cut inland because of SE ridging, on the other, you have a PV laying close by so it can only cut so far north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It still tries to but it's colder than the last run, I could see this turning into a miller B gradually. There's a huge amount of cold air around just to the north with an extension of the high pressure coming down to the northeast. I also could see it being a significant ice event as low level cold should be even stronger than the gfs depicts. On one hand it could cut inland because of SE ridging, on the other, you have a PV laying close by so it can only cut so far north and west. Do you think north shore Long Island / Long Island Sound is the dividing line between an all snow and ice event, and a snow, ice to cold rain event ? This weekend event. High position is absolutely perfect for a great event even here. I do not see any signs of any potential coastal front making it above the central LI area, and SE NYC at a guess this early. Arctic high and snowcover locked in going into event will surprise us in a good way next weekend. My take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Do you think north shore Long Island / Long Island Sound is the dividing line between an all snow and ice event, and a snow, ice to cold rain event ? This weekend event. High position is absolutely perfect for a great event even here. I do not see any signs of any potential coastal front making it above the central LI area, and SE NYC at a guess this early. Arctic high and snowcover locked in going into event will surprise us in a good way next weekend. My take. with no blocking and even a fresh cold air mass we may very well be. geographically were in the worst place for CAD and if that PV doesn't flex its muscles enough to push the storm far enough east the NYC N&W crowd will be enjoying this one while we get a slushy mess or a cold 33/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 the gfs has been gradually shifting SE, if it does again on the 12z run then I might get my hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 the gfs has been gradually shifting SE, if it does again on the 12z run then I might get my hopes up Long way to go for this one... Especially if you are on the coast. Enjoy todays event then worry about this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 The northern stream shortwave is acting as a kicker here, anyway, light snow approaching the area hr 96 on the 12z GFS. Snowing all areas except eastern LI hr 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Snow is breaking out at 102 in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Still snowing in the area at 108 hours with a nice CAD signature for the coast. 850's are warming up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 At 114 hours, 850's are above 0 for the area with moderate precip. The 32 degree line is right on the coast. There is an open low getting ready to move northeast off the NJ Coast. Colder and more south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z GFS is a good front end dump followed by big interior icing problems at hour 117. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z GFS is 2-4, 3-5" front end dump on Saturday morning. Edit: Actually showing 4-6" north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 3 runs in a row ths has trended colder. Like the fresh HP that arrives into New England at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 At 120 hours, the low is just eas 12z GFS is 2-4, 3-5" front end dump on Saturday morning. Much further south and east on this run. The low ends up just east of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hour 120 the low is southeast of Long Island. Sub 1000mb. 850's are warm but the surface stays cold for the whole storm from the city NW. This is very close to a major storm and might even be that if you take into account the icing threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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