Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Overrunning events in my opinion are very underrated. They often can overperform and usually everyone at least sees something from them. If you are wanting a big coastal storm you run the risk of being dry slotted, ending up in an area of subsidence 10 miles from a megaband, or changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ratios might be pretty high to start with such a cold airmass…something to watch Nah , 10 to 1 max . This is marginal enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nah , 10 to 1 max . This is marginal enough Marginal? Euro has temps in the 20s when the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Marginal? Euro has temps in the 20s when the precip arrives.[/quote I see 12:1 if not more when precip first comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Marginal? Euro has temps in the 20s when the precip arrives. snow ratios are not necessarily dictated by surface temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This has precip well offshore with showery weather over land written all over it, after the initial burst of snow from the WAA. Yeah, I am not a big fan of those big maxes to our east. Hopefully we can squeak out 1-3 or 2-4 before the precip goes to light rain or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Marginal? Euro has temps in the 20s when the precip arrives. Ratios are not determined by surface temps check the 850`s minus 2- 4 - thats 10 to 1 , Come on ANTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 snow ratios are not necessarily dictated by surface temperatures In the New England forum the mets are talking about good snowgrowth, so hopefully that extends down to us as well. Again, no one should expect a significant or major event from this, this is perhaps a moderate snow event or ice event inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 snow ratios are not necessarily dictated by surface temperatures Well. .. Yes and no. Look what happened yesterday. Mid levels were fantastic but surface was questionable and ratios that people were saying at least 15:1 were likely even less than 10:1. Very very hard even in ideal conditions to break 10:1 on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well. .. Yes and no. Look what happened yesterday. Mid levels were fantastic but surface was questionable and ratios that people were saying at least 15:1. Very very hard even in ideal conditions to break 10:1 on the coastal plain. One thing that I think is different is the surface temps should be in the 20's when the snow arrives..it was in the mid 30's yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well. .. Yes and no. Look what happened yesterday. Mid levels were fantastic but surface was questionable and ratios that people were saying at least 15:1 were likely even less than 10:1. Very very hard even in ideal conditions to break 10:1 on the coastal plain. The ground and boundary layer were warm yesterday, which melted and compacted the snow. We would have had another 1-2" if temps were in the 20s instead like they will be as this moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 People . please take 10 to 1 w .50 qpf and hope its frozen , its DEC 12 and may b CNJ 3 rd accumulating snow in 1 week . that doesnt happen that often sorry for bold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well. .. Yes and no. Look what happened yesterday. Mid levels were fantastic but surface was questionable and ratios that people were saying at least 15:1 were likely even less than 10:1. Very very hard even in ideal conditions to break 10:1 on the coastal plain. If the entire column is below freezing, near-freezing surface temperatures won't affect snow ratios. There are still other factors that could (such as warm ground), but low density snow can accumulate with surface temps near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 "DT on twitter says Euro looks like good snows for big cities" Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I generally like overrunning type snows for us which approach from the W-SW more than ones which approach from the SW or S, not sure why but they seem to generally perform better, 2/2008, 2/8/94, and 2/18/00 are a few examples of ones which approach more from the W-SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Marginal? Euro has temps in the 20s when the precip arrives. for the 100th time - surface temps have very little to do with water equivalent ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I generally like overrunning type snows for us which approach from the W-SW more than ones which approach from the SW or S, not sure why but they seem to generally perform better, 2/2008, 2/8/94, and 2/18/00 are a few examples of ones which approach more from the W-SW. Dont the app mountains in PA have a knack for drying out the precip? Something to do with downsloping?....(im asking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I corrected myself after I posted that I meant GGEM yeah I deleted the post after I saw your clarification later down the page - sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Dont the app mountains in PA have a knack for drying out the precip? Something to do with downsloping?....(im asking) I think that only applies to northern stream events that dive out of the upper midwest or clipper like systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 "DT on twitter says Euro looks like good snows for big cities" Rossi twitter? he hasnt posted on twitter since november. ??? on facebook he says, "euro starts as snow in Philly all of NJ NYC Long island coastal CT - RI/ se mass.. but it does change over to NON snow..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Dont the app mountains in PA have a knack for drying out the precip? Something to do with downsloping?....(im asking) The moisture and storm don't originate from the Midwest in those, so not usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 yeah I deleted the post after I saw your clarification later down the page - sorry! No prob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 twitter? he hasnt posted on twitter since november. ??? on facebook he says, "euro starts as snow in Philly all of NJ NYC Long island coastal CT - RI/ se mass.. but it does change over to NON snow..." Wrong PLease look - https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 twitter? he hasnt posted on twitter since november. ??? on facebook he says, "euro starts as snow in Philly all of NJ NYC Long island coastal CT - RI/ se mass.. but it does change over to NON snow..." I haven't been on twitter today, but he has been posting on his 2nd twitter account lately. He sometimes posts on facebook under his 2nd facebook account too. I believe he goes by dtvaweatherman or something like that. Sorry I'm at work and don't have access to those sites right now to check on his exact name. EDIT. JUST SAW YOUR POST ROSSI. THANKS. I WAS RIGHT! HA HA HA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think DT made a typo in his twitter post. He says 12z EURO agrees with big I-95 snows yet posts two pictures showing the freezing line way NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Dont the app mountains in PA have a knack for drying out the precip? Something to do with downsloping?....(im asking) These events come in more WSW so they mostly avoid the terrian vs. something coming in from the W or WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think DT made a typo in his twitter post. He says 12z EURO agrees with big I-95 snows yet posts two pictures showing the freezing line way NW. That's just his sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ratios are not determined by surface temps check the 850`s minus 2- 4 - thats 10 to 1 , Come on ANTH 850s are -10.9 as the precip enters NYC and the surface temp is 19 degrees. And 100% surface temp matters for snow ratio. Yesterday's event is a PRIME example. The mid and upper levels suupported high snow ratios. Yet the surface was a bit too warm and the snow ratios were piss poor almost everywhere. The snow growth regions supported 12 to 15 to 1 ratios yesterday, even in the city. But the surface was 33-35 degrees and kept ratios to a PUTRID 4 to 1 in the city. If the surface was 31 or below, yesterday would have been a 4"-6" event. Anytime I hear that surface temp doesn't matter with ratios, I want to puke. They 100% do. Especially in urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wrong PLease look - https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman thanks! and to JERSEYSNOWROB too. i was looking at https://twitter.com/WXRISKCOM his comment on twitter is clearly inarticulate. he's clearly saying the euro is NOT big snow for big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think DT made a typo in his twitter post. He says 12z EURO agrees with big I-95 snows yet posts two pictures showing the freezing line way NW. Theres a handful of folks on this board I would trust better than a profession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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