IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 And an 850 low travelling to your west is a real and true problem Not if it transfers like its supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We agree to disagree lol. I'll go back to lurking but the i95 corridor from nyc to dca need some changes the next few runs to set us up better for this system imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 not liking this weaker and drier trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 not liking this weaker and drier trend Exactly, in my opinion the GFS would be scattered showers at best. Even the GGEM shows most of the precip well offshore associated with the coastal. Anyway, Euro running. Will update as it comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Given the forecasted indices (NAO/PNA), there is a rather significant likelihood of a major east coast storm. This is rather typical for the GFS. Given the lack of development of the storm on the GFS, the entire temperature profile is also likely wrong. Ex: 850 mb will be higher if there is no significant 850 mb low to drive the advective process or develop the coastal front. Exactly, in my opinion the GFS would be scattered showers at best. Even the GGEM shows most of the precip well offshore associated with the coastal. Anyway, Euro running. Will update as it comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Given the forecasted indices (NAO/PNA), there is a rather significant likelihood of a major east coast storm. This is rather typical for the GFS. Given the lack of development of the storm on the GFS, the entire temperature profile is also likely wrong. Ex: 850 mb will be higher if there is no significant 850 mb low to drive the advective process or develop the coastal front. I'll feel a lot better if the Euro holds serve or improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Will dr. No save or take away our dreams? Stay tuned folks. Me personally i feel the euro is going to get closer to an overall better signifigant east coast storm solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Will dr. No save or take away our dreams? Stay tuned folks. Me personally i feel the euro is going to get closer to an overall better signifigant east coast storm solution Very hard for the coast to stay snow , This is prob not the system for you . This is a snow and ice maker away from the cost , I should prob wait for the Euro , but regardless , dont thnk this is your storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Very hard for the coast to stay snow , This is prob not the system for you . This is a snow and ice maker away from the cost , I should prob wait for the Euro , but regardless , dont thnk this is your storm Meh probably not but overall we have to be happy were tracking something in a +AO/NAO pattern. And looking forward more storm chances as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Meh probably not but overall we have to be happy were tracking something in a +AO/NAO pattern. And looking forward more storm chances as well I mean just away from the coast , not too far . IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 hr 66 12z euro has overrunning to cleveland….its very cold here. hr 72 overrunning moving in..all snow…850's/surface in north carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 man is this run cold…528 line touching nyc with snowing moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 hr 78 surface mason dixon line….850's in central VA. light snow in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 00z sunday mod snow into the area….850's mason dixon line and surface in snj that high is in a great spot…1036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Hour 96 NNJ flips to ZR. LI flips to RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 hr 90 850's and surface in central nj... hr 96 850's west of nj….but surface is along 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The 0C 850s are over the Lower Hudson Valley at HR 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 euro is 4-6 inches of snow for metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Amazing how this cold air mass is pushed away so quickly.. at between 90-96 HR (EURO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Hr 102 it's history. It's 6-10 hours of snow, followed by 6 hours of ZR NW of the city and then flurries to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 No help from the ECMWF. Weak system overall. This thread is going to be unbearable to read now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 by 18z sunday the storm is pretty much over….weak costal this run…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 euro is 4-6 inches of snow for metro area It actually has a bullseye of 6-8" over KSQM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Amazing how this cold air mass is pushed away so quickly.. at between 90-96 HR (EURO) It's because the SLP is weaker and closer to the coast. If it were at least stronger and 35 miles east, it would've been pretty excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 No help from the ECMWF. Weak system overall. This thread is going to be unbearable to read now... it still has a good amount of over running snow, which is prob our best shot right now. 4-6 on snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 No help from the ECMWF. Weak system overall. This thread is going to be unbearable to read now... All the snow from the 00z Euro was from the over running. This run is the same, it's weak and fast. Pretty much the theme starting at 18z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Models are converging on a snow--> sleet/ice scenario; almost all meaningful precip from overrunning. My guess from I-95 N/W 2-4" then mix.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 A light to mod snow event followed by a mix. Ill take a few inches and preserve it with ice if need be. Hopefully no warm up prior to Xmas. Keep expectations low on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Why are people freaking out and throwing in the flag...it's 3 whole days out lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 The northern stream S/W has trended weaker and weaker. Meanwhile, the southern stream wave behind it kicks it out very fast. Looks to me like the models are still transitioning and far from the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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