PB GFI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Look at these surface temps at the height when the 850`s are plus 3 , This is a major ICE storm for some . If you live on the south facing shore of Long Island your probably in trouble but for a lot of people on this board , this not a nasty set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This isn't going to end well with a track of the coastal as far offshore and as weak as what the GFS shows, especially for inland areas. We're going to get that initial blast of snow associated with the WAA and that is what the Euro had giving us most of our snow. As the primary dies off the precip is going to fall apart and shut off over PA. Then the coastal is going to form and it's going to look like a piece of garbage, strung out and unorganized with most of the precip well southeast of the area, and likely offshore. We're going to end up with less snow than yesterday if the GFS verifies. You have the EURO, NAM and DGEX along the same lines with this storm and GFS is a mess with the storm. I highly doubt the euro and its support is "off" right now. This air mass coming in is cold and high looks to be in a great place as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The GFS is riding with a significant icing event just inland from the coast. gfs090hr_sfc_ptyp.gif gfs096hr_sfc_ptyp.gif Ha , you beat my by a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 I've seen this all too often. With the lower resolution of the GFS graphics that most of us have available, we're forced to look at smoothed out means in terms of QPF. So although it will show say 0.10-0.25" of QPF, that is likely indicative of showery or unorganized precip. You really need explosive development of that secondary, because it's going to be hauling *ss up the coastline and the only hope of seeing decent snowfall is if a CCB can form south of us. The 12z ECMWF from yesterday had that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ha , you beat my by a minute That's a really ugly GFS run for those areas with 850-950 warm layer over a shallow surface freezing layer. The -EPO Arctic high special really means business on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Just like Allsnow just said, the GFS took a step in the right direction. There are 2 highs just to the north of Maine. If those highs are further west and a little more south, this would have ended up with a colder solution. 3 more days left until this event happens so things can and possibly will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 The 06z DGEX was flat and offshore, and it's a horrible model anyway. It shouldn't be counted as support for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Low level cold air is really hard to erode. I think we would need a strong coastal hugger to warm us up completely for the area to change over to plain rain. Not in NYC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 The text outputs for KLGA 12z NAM show surface temps in the 35-36 range with a rain snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's very odd to have such a cold airmass like this in the beginning of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's very odd to have such a cold airmass like this in the beginning of the season. When was the last time our area received 3 snowfalls within a couple of days apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's very odd to have such a cold airmass like this in the beginning of the season. There is a ton of cold air available so far this winter. Although the GFS is a bit disconnected aloft, it still produces what seems to be a significant ice event away from the coast. Want to see the wavelengths a bit better oriented so that the shortwave can turn the corner -- notice how once it starts doing so, the surface low really deepens (over New England). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 We still haven't had our big wound up sacrificial coastal that flips the NAO negative and sets the stage for better blocking. Until that happens we're going to continue to get these fast moving quick hitters with minimal impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 just give me 2 inches and I will be happy Agree 100 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 When was the last time our area received 3 snowfalls within a couple of days apart? I remember times during the 2010-2011 season where it seemed to snow almost every other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 I remember times during the 2010-2011 season where it seemed to snow almost every other day.That was an insanely anomalous winter for us. Just like 09-10 for the DC area. We had a raging negative NAO and Boxing Day really ushered in an amazing pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 There is a ton of cold air available so far this winter. Although the GFS is a bit disconnected aloft, it still produces what seems to be a significant ice event away from the coast. Want to see the wavelengths a bit better oriented so that the shortwave can turn the corner -- notice how once it starts doing so, the surface low really deepens (over New England). Earthlight at this current juncture what model(s) have the right idea of what may happen with the players on field currently? Im leaning more towards the EURO at this point as it doesnt really erode the cold air prematurely as these models have been known to do this season thus far ( sorry for some of my OT posts by the way as well ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The text outputs for KLGA 12z NAM show surface temps in the 35-36 range with a rain snow mix. Does not seem right if even the GFS shows more low level cold with its lower resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisnow666 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 DT says snow to rain for coast. Any chance the high does not slide east and maintains cold air for coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 When was the last time our area received 3 snowfalls within a couple of days apart? Someone said yesterday how this winter was somewhat similar to 2008-09 and I would tend to agree. I logged 6-7 events in December alone, mostly small but still accumulating events. I also remember alot of disagreement between the NAM/GFS and the Euro especially as we moved into January. Tons of events to track but none that worked out to be big snow makers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I don't care what the trends are ... that 850 Low in the ohio valley is a killer for i95 and coastal plain for anyone thinking all snow right now. That may be so after 90 hours but there could easily be 3-4 inches of snow in the overrunning prior to that, winds from 850-surface are not E or SE til beyond 87 hiours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 DT says snow to rain for coast. Any chance the high does not slide east and maintains cold air for coast? Sure. But I would think alot of the storm is frozen before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Why do people always say a model is wrong if it does not show a crippling blizzard for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 12z Ukie has a quicker transfer and a weak coastal offshore. Looks like the 0z Euro. Someone said yesterday how this winter was somewhat similar to 2008-09 and I would tend to agree. I logged 6-7 events in December alone, mostly small but still accumulating events. I also remember alot of disagreement between the NAM/GFS and the Euro especially as we moved into January. Tons of events to track but none that worked out to be big snow makers I remember getting alot of small events in January during that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 12z Ukie has a quicker transfer and a weak coastal offshore. Looks like the 0z Euro. I remember getting alot of small events in January during that winter. Can you post the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That was an insanely anomalous winter for us. Just like 09-10 for the DC area. We had a raging negative NAO and Boxing Day really ushered in an amazing pattern. Yep, lived in Hamden, CT. The endless cold and snow was absurd, probably my favorite winter of all time. Back on topic, I think some people here are a little too worried about sementics at this point. The fact that there is a growing consensus of a high pumping in cold air, as well as a coastal low forming in itself is a good sign. Strength/location/speed of all these features is something that takes time to figure out and shouldn't be over assessed during each individual model run(especially at this time range.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 12z Ukie has a quicker transfer and a weak coastal offshore. Looks like the 0z Euro. I remember getting alot of small events in January during that winter. I had 9 1" or greater snows that winter. Same as 2010-11 but with less than half the total snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 with this type of situation we really need to wait until all the players are on the field to start getting a better idea of what the outcome will be. it is obvious that a storm will be in our area this weekend but to what extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Agree 100 percent Get posts like this out of this thread. Last warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The text outputs for KLGA 12z NAM show surface temps in the 35-36 range with a rain snow mix. Thats because the models cannot resolve evaporational cooling, when the snow starts on the NAM its 32/28...nothing is going to push those temps up for the next 12 hours with a light west flow at all levels til we go easterly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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