IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 This run is most likely all snow for the NYC area. The freezing line is right on top of NYC throughout the whole event. No, it's snow to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Hr 93 back to all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The GFS once again trended in the right direction and i fully expect that trend to continue. The 12z EURO will be ripe with anticipation come 1:30, and so i think this officially begins the insane model suspense of winter 2013-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 No, it's snow to ice. Yes, I was only up to hour 84 when I wrote my post. 850's warm up as the low goes offshore. This run is further east than the previous runs. That's why it's also colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Hr 93 back to all snow Not true, at hour 96 the 850mb freezing line is till up through Sussex and Orange Counties and precip is shutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well 12z GFS snow maps spitting out 1-2" and 2-4" well NW of the city. Followed by ~0.25" of ZR. The precip never gets heavy enough. It's a meh solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Surface temps are hanging on to the mid 30s over Western NYC/NE NJ through HR 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well 12z GFS snow maps spitting out 1-2" and 2-4" well NW of the city. Followed by ~0.25" of ZR. The precip never gets heavy enough. It's a meh solution. That's it? I would think it's more,especially with the initial overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I don't care what the trends are ... that 850 Low in the ohio valley is a killer for i95 and coastal plain for anyone thinking all snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 This is what you're going to get unless you have a stronger coastal. The weak primary goes to Pitt and the sorry excuse for a secondary develops too far north. It looks so much like a dumbed down version of PDII. The primary low closed off in that storm which amplified the whole pattern. We're missing that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 WOW the GFS is clearly missing something here. Yeah, it goes from amped to a near dud. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 That's it? I would think it's more,especially with the initial overrunning. That's it. The setup at H5 is a disaster. You get a weak coastal that skates by. The 12z GFS yesterday had a much more potent coastal and it's been trending weaker every run since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That's it? I would think it's more,especially with the initial overrunning. Only .3-.4" of liquid falls in frozen form so a couple inches of snow and then sleet/freezing rain and thats in like a 12 hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 WOW the GFS is clearly missing something here. Maybe not. We really don't have a lot of wiggle room here for a very wintry solution that close to the city (north and west is an exception, for ice). The SE ridge is in place and will keep the warm air close by, winds look like they switch to E or ESE unless the coastal really takes over, unless it's a very weak system that doesn't deliver much warm air and therefore little precip. If I had to guess at a place that does well, it's along I-90 from Boston to upstate New York under the deeper cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That's it. The setup at H5 is a disaster. You get a weak coastal that skates by. The 12z GFS yesterday had a much more potent coastal and it's been trending weaker every run since. It's trending towards the Euro. I think this will be a few inches just like this last storm. The pattern isn't ripe for a monster. Only .3-.4" of liquid falls in frozen form so a couple inches of snow and then sleet/freezing rain and thats in like a 12 hour period I will be fine with whatever snow I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 And why is that Because its not showing a big snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We need some mets to chime in here on these runs who can more deeply analyze these runs and can decipher model runs whether they look correct or just on crack. The GFS doesnt look right, the setup is convoluted and the EURO i think is being more consistent as well as the NAM (as bad as that may sound) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 WOW the GFS is clearly missing something here. Nah , its a plausible solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 The 12z NAM has much more robust development of the eventual coastal over NC at hour 84 but it's the extended NAM and almost always over amplified at this range. Not to mention that the NAM has been less than stellar lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Anyone from I-95 N/W has a very low/minimal chance of non freezing/frozen precip from this storm. Virtually perfect high positions, arctic air already in place, and a surface low that passes 100-200+ miles SE of the coast does not a rain storm make. Can there be ice/mix, certainly, but with all the players being what they are either a snowstorm or a snow to ice/sleet scenario seems likely. And that is what NYC NWS sees as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's trending towards the Euro. I think this will be a few inches just like this last storm. The pattern isn't ripe for a monster. I will be fine with whatever snow I can get. The NAM is a lot closer to the Euro than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 If the high slides east like the model shows its game over for the city and coast. Snow to sleet to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The Euro is colder than the GFS because develops the coastal faster than the GFS. We need a quicker transfer like the Euro. I think everyone would take a couple of inches, even if it changes over. I doubt it will change over to plain rain. The airmass that will be in place will be a cold one. When the wind turns to the ESE, you'll be mighty surprised at how fast the temp can spike up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 This isn't going to end well with a track of the coastal as far offshore and as weak as what the GFS shows, especially for inland areas. We're going to get that initial blast of snow associated with the WAA and that is what the Euro had giving us most of our snow. As the primary dies off the precip is going to fall apart and shut off over PA. Then the coastal is going to form and it's going to look like a piece of garbage, strung out and unorganized with most of the precip well southeast of the area, and likely offshore. We're going to end up with less snow than yesterday if the GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 If the high slides east like the model shows its game over for the city and coast. Snow to sleet to rain The high isnt going to be booking and it also doesnt look to be moving in the "wrong direction" either. The problem here is coastal transfer and depth of the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The GFS is riding with a significant icing event just inland from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 What is it missing? Why is a model always wrong if it doesn't bury us in snow? Its another solution. With that said, the energy hasn't even made it on the coast yet. The models still need a couple days to work it out. But this was a totally plausible solution. I think a snow to ice scenario makes sense and I think the models are too warm at the surface. How many times have we seen cold air hanging in longer than modeled. We will see. An all snow scenario for all , like most want is highly unlikely as of now. I am not saying it couldn't be right. I just do not believe this is solution that will transpire. It has nothing to do with getting buried with snow. I very ratherly post on here but when I feel a model is way off its rocker I will comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Low level cold air is really hard to erode. I think we would need a strong coastal hugger to warm us up completely for the area to change over to plain rain. I'm telling u, on an east or ese wind its game over for a lot of us. Well NW of the city will hang tough. Now if the storm is a bit further off shore or stronger and the high doesnt slide too far east, its a totally different story for the city and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Anyone from I-95 N/W has a very low/minimal chance of non freezing/frozen precip from this storm. Virtually perfect high positions, arctic air already in place, and a surface low that passes 100-200+ miles SE of the coast does not a rain storm make. Can there be ice/mix, certainly, but with all the players being what they are either a snowstorm or a snow to ice/sleet scenario seems likely. And that is what NYC NWS sees as well. But actually they mention rain in their forecast but nothing about ice which I thought was odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Compared to 00z the gfs took a step in the right direction. That's a very strong high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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