Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 850 low still showing up over ohio this run....not good for coastal plain / i95 imo but that's just saying what the model us showing verbatim and not my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Not true, you want a stronger system. In this case, a stronger system wouldn't necessarily bring rain, even to coastal sections. The 12z Euro yesterday was a good example. If the coastal ends up weaker you're just going to get a few hours of slop like yesterday. We don't want a primary that's too strong. It would drag too much warm air in and try to ride inland, while not transferring to the coast until too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 NAM reminds me a lot of this system. If that polar jet can act as more of a blocking influence, the maps below are a great example of how you can get a HECS with a primary to the Ohio Valley. This system was also proceeded by a large arctic high pressure system over upstate NY. Current forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 We don't want a primary that's too strong. It would drag too much warm air in and try to ride inland, while not transferring to the coast until too late. Not true, because the weaker the primary is, the weaker the energy is going to be with the secondary. You want more pressing of the arctic jet so that it forces redevelopment quicker, and you want stronger energy so that it causes explosive development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 12z Nam looks more like the Euro than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Actually the #2 analog showing up today over the east at 96hrs is 1/3/96 which occurred just a few days before the most epic blizzard of my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm not entirely concerned. Those Massive HPs are rock solid agree 100 % -i n this type of situation the high pressure and location is very important and it it seems that the high never gets east enough to turn the winds easterly just NE around NYC metro - keeping the cold air funneling in this direction and keeping the warmer flow off the ocean limited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Actually the #2 analog showing up today over the east at 96hrs is 1/3/96 which occurred just a few days before the most epic blizzard of my lifetime. 1/3/96 was a lot of slop and rain on the coast, an icestorm just inland, and a MECS for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 I didn't see anyone mention it so I will. The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean had a sub 1008mb low over ACY and flipped the coastal plain to rain by 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Actually the #2 analog showing up today over the east at 96hrs is 1/3/96 which occurred just a few days before the most epic blizzard of my lifetime. That had much more amplification overall in the Midwest than this one will have though, 1/11/91 and 1/11/09 are also showing up in there but again more amplification at 500mb out west in all of those so none of the analogs fit very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 1/3/96 was a lot of slop and rain on the coast, an icestorm just inland, and a MECS for SNE. Yes, but a few days later was a much different story. That storm also helped to usher in a very cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 That had much more amplification overall in the Midwest than this one will have though, 1/11/91 and 1/11/09 are also showing up in there but again more amplification at 500mb out west in all of those so none of the analogs fit very well Actually the impacts for our area look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Actually the #2 analog showing up today over the east at 96hrs is 1/3/96 which occurred just a few days before the most epic blizzard of my lifetime. 1/3/96 was a lot of slop and rain on the coast, an icestorm just inland, and a MECS for SNE. And we all know what happened 4 days later :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Here is the #1 analog 1/11/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We don't want a primary that's too strong. It would drag too much warm air in and try to ride inland, while not transferring to the coast until too late.True, but I believe they meant we want a strong coastal. Strong primaries many a time have been our demise early or late in the season around here. But the poster mentioned a more sheared out system would be worse for us, as the primary and southern stream would stay separate, thus keeping us from locking in that cold air. I will say though, with that strong a hp in place, combined with that potent vortex dropping through the great Lakes, I think the primary will struggle to be as strong as some models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 And we all know what happened 4 days later :-) Yes, but as Snowgoose mentioned, the overall conditions back further west are different now. I'm just not that excited for this. I'd be moreso if I lived in Boston-the cold air is deeper there and snow should hang on considerably longer. For my immediate area this seems like a few hours of snow maybe then sleet then rain to wash it away. Inland probably gets a long period of sleet or freezing rain. I'd have to see a lot of changes before I start believing in a significant winter event for the coast and the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yes, but as Snowgoose mentioned, the overall conditions back further west are different now. I'm just not that excited for this. I'd be moreso if I lived in Boston-the cold air is deeper there and snow should hang on considerably longer. For my immediate area this seems like a few hours of snow maybe then sleet then rain to wash it away. Inland probably gets a long period of sleet or freezing rain. I'd have to see a lot of changes before I start believing in a significant winter event for the coast and the city. The NWS seems to think that the interior from the LHV up north will stay all snow and as well in their latest discussions thinking that the city has a chance as well. Cold air in these situations at all levels have a hard time eroding and warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yes, but as Snowgoose mentioned, the overall conditions back further west are different now. I'm just not that excited for this. I'd be moreso if I lived in Boston-the cold air is deeper there and snow should hang on considerably longer. For my immediate area this seems like a few hours of snow maybe then sleet then rain to wash it away. Inland probably gets a long period of sleet or freezing rain. I'd have to see a lot of changes before I start believing in a significant winter event for the coast and the city. I agree. I wouldn't pay that much attention until atleast tomorrow night. Let the models do their normal flip flop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 My point and click from Mt Holly Saturday Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Here is the #1 analog 1/11/09 that was a non - event around here wasn't worth even a mention in Ray's Winter Storm Archive http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/Weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yes, but as Snowgoose mentioned, the overall conditions back further west are different now. I'm just not that excited for this. I'd be moreso if I lived in Boston-the cold air is deeper there and snow should hang on considerably longer. For my immediate area this seems like a few hours of snow maybe then sleet then rain to wash it away. Inland probably gets a long period of sleet or freezing rain. I'd have to see a lot of changes before I start believing in a significant winter event for the coast and the city. A lot of changes? We just need the Euro to verify for the area to see several inches of snow. The airmass in place will be cold when the system comes in. From there, it will all depend on where the low transfers. We need an early transfer like the Euro shows. The highs up north keep on shifting south on every run of the Euro. The GFS is also starting to shift towards a quicker transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 The differences can be seen between the 12z NAM and new 12z GFS as early as hour 42. The northern stream energy is quite a bit more amplified on the GFS and that is what ultimately ends up driving this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 that was a non - event around here wasn't worth even a mention in Ray's Winter Storm Archive http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/Weather.html That was a big ice producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That was a big ice producer. then why wasn't it mentioned in his archive ? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/Weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 then why wasn't it mentioned in his archive ? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/Weather.html Why don't you ask him? Is he the be all end all? You can see all the ZR repots on the impact graphic I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Gfs through hr 69 looks a lot like euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Why don't you ask him? Is he the be all end all? You can see all the ZR repots on the impact graphic I posted. ok - I didn't remember that one but looked it up on wunderground - it started as light snow the previous day and then switched over to light freezing rain - he must have had a reason for not listing it or maybe he overlooked it http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2009/1/10/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 12z GFS, moderate snow from the city NW at hour 81. The surface freezing line is actually over western Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Through hr 90 surface frz is along 95. Snow-Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Hr 87 here comes the 850mb warm push and by hour 90 we're all in freezing rain from the city north and west. The surface freezing line is literally right over I-87 in NYC with the 850mb freezing line well north into Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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