IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Looks like it's more coastal than inland now. Colder scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Is this based off of today's runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Anyone have comments on this mornings Nam? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This event is where you trust the Euro more than the gfs, it's a large scale storm, we're getting into that range where the Euro can be dead on, and it just makes better sense from a meteorological standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Looks like it's more coastal than inland now. Colder scenario? Thats exactly what that looks like to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 The 12z NAM is coming in more amplified with the shortwave over Texas at hour 72. Digging a lot more, basically no comparison to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Excellent breakdown form Upton FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE DIFFERENCESBETWEEN THE MODELS IN THEIR HANDLING OF A COASTAL STORM. BECAUSE THEGFS HISTORICALLY HAS HAD A BIAS OF BEING TO WEAK WITH AND TO QUICKTO ERODE DAMMING HIGHS...AND GIVEN THAT EVEN IT KEEPS THE CORE OFTHE HIGH TO OUR N AND DOES NOT HAVE IT RETREATING - ANOTHER SIGNTHAT WORKS AGAINST ITS IDEA OF WEAKENING THE DAMMING OVER THE AREA.BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS LOW TRACK IS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST AS ITDOES NOT ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT BLOCKING OF ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS BYTHE HIGH TO THE N. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THEECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME - IT ALSO HISTORICALLY DOES FAIRLY WELLWITH DAMMING HIGHS IN ADDITIONS TO GENERALLY BEING THE BETTERPERFORMING MODEL IN THIS TIME FRAME.BASED ON THIS MODEL CHOICE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTWINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH SUNDAY...WITH IT PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCH MARK DURINGTHE DAY ON SUNDAY. MORE CONFIDENT OF ALL SNOW INLAND THAN AT THECOAST...WITH THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST TO GO E-ESE SATURDAYAFTERNOON/NIGHT - USUALLY THIS WILL BRING MOST OF LONG ISLAND ANDNYC AS WELL AS AT LEAST COASTAL SE CT TO ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...THEFACT THAT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND RE-ENFORCED TO THEN MEANS THAT IF THE FLOW IS BACKED MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUETO ISALLOBARIC INFLUENCES - COULD END UP STAYING MAINLY SNOW OVERCOASTAL AREAS AS WELL. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OFTHE SYSTEM SO THIS FORECAST COULD VERY WELL CHANGE. FOR TEMPERATURESSATURDAY-SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF2-METER TEMPERATURES - FOR NOW ECMWF 2-M TEMPERATURES APPEARED TOOCOLD - SO USED OTHER GUIDANCE TO TEMPER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEBELOW NORMAL BASED ON THE ABOVE THINKING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This event is where you trust the Euro more than the gfs, it's a large scale storm, we're getting into that range where the Euro can be dead on, and it just makes better sense from a meteorological standpoint. We want a more sheared out system, which is somewhat likely in a fast, progressive flow. Also, we want a faster transfer to the coastal system. It's a storm I have a feeling though has much better odds along I-90 than around the city. Inland areas could see a good amount of ice after snow initially, since the cold initial air won't leave at the ground with a weak, progressive system. The trends are better though for at least some initial accumulating snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Excellent breakdown form Upton Totally on point here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 1012mb low over MS/AL at hour 78. Surface looks warm. 850's are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 We want a more sheared out system, which is somewhat likely in a fast, progressive flow. Also, we want a faster transfer to the coastal system. It's a storm I have a feeling though has much better odds along I-90 than around the city. Inland areas could see a good amount of ice after snow initially, since the cold initial air won't leave at the ground with a weak, progressive system. The trends are better though for at least some initial accumulating snow for everyone. Not true, you want a stronger system. In this case, a stronger system wouldn't necessarily bring rain, even to coastal sections. The 12z Euro yesterday was a good example. If the coastal ends up weaker you're just going to get a few hours of slop like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nam looks a lot like the euro has mod over running snow at 21z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 1012mb low over MS/AL at hour 78. Surface looks warm. 850's are cold. Whoa. The primary is pretty far south, but surface being warm sounds strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 By the end of the NAM run the low is still hung up over GA. Precip is up to northern New England. This kind of reminds me of the system we had a couple weeks ago with the multiple lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Hr 84 nam has mod snow with low taking over in se states. Fwiw just telling you what it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 850's are cold on the NAM sure, but the surface freezing line is 30 miles NW of the city. It's a big hit for the interior and likely a sloppy mess for most interests in this sub-forum verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Hr 84 nam has mod snow with low taking over in se states. Fwiw just telling you what it shows Sounds more like a Classic Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 The 12z NAM is almost a miller A/B hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Hr 84 nam has mod snow with low taking over in se states. Fwiw just telling you what it shows 850's are cold on the NAM sure, but the surface freezing line is 30 miles NW of the city. It's a big hit for the interior and likely a sloppy mess for most interests in this sub-forum verbatim. Pick one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 850's are cold on the NAM sure, but the surface freezing line is 30 miles NW of the city. It's a big hit for the interior and likely a sloppy mess for most interests in this sub-forum verbatim. I'm not entirely concerned. Those Massive HPs are rock solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Sounds more like a Classic Miller B. It's not, classic miller B is primary to western PA and secondary development off the NC coast. This looks nothing like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 850's are cold on the NAM sure, but the surface freezing line is 30 miles NW of the city. It's a big hit for the interior and likely a sloppy mess for most interests in this sub-forum verbatim. That would be snow. Idc about surface 84 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 In reality the surface would probably end up a lot colder than the Nam shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Pick one. This is from two different posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 In reality the surface would probably end up a lot colder than the Nam shows. Yeah, the primary was further south. That's why I'm not concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's not, classic miller B is primary to western PA and secondary development off the NC coast. This looks nothing like that. Oops. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 That would be snow. Idc about surface 84 hrs out. It would be a white rain for mostly everyone outside the higher elevations. This is such a different solution from all other guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Oops. Sorry. Don't sweat it. The Euro is a lot closer to a classic Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Don't sweat it. The Euro is a lot closer to a classic Miller B. It is far more accurate than the Nam at 78-84 hrs, Nam is better once we get under 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I dont look at 84 hr NAM surface temps , but 1.look at the CAD , 2 .850s at Minus 3 , so temps that look to be 32- 34 at the onset would fall , its not slop at 84 hrs - its snow . not saying its gona happen , but the model not saying slop " yet " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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