jm1220 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:16 PM, Superstorm93 said: No help from the ECMWF. Weak system overall. This thread is going to be unbearable to read now... I don't see why people want a strong system particularly along the coast, and what's wrong with the 3-6" of snow it apparently shows. A strong system will scour out the cold air faster unless miraculously it tracks well offshore, while a weak one would be snow or mix for more people until the end, at which point the precip is likely gone anyway. And for those wondering how the warm air can get here so fast, that's what happens with a strong SE Ridge and east winds. The warm air is never far away from this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:19 PM, Allsnow said: nobody care about ur backyard….stop Is KSQM not part of this sub-forum? And the last time I checked I don't live anywhere near Somerset, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:18 PM, Allsnow said: it still has a good amount of over running snow, which is prob our best shot right now. 4-6 on snow maps Pprob doesnt get better than in terms of overunning event , The weaker it is the better the solution , the front end of these usually have a good amount of qpf , and then you flip after the damage is done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:20 PM, OrangeCountySnowZ said: Why are people freaking out and throwing in the flag...it's 3 whole days out lol... I don't think anyone's freaking out. Just becoming apparent this might not be the huge storm that some were hoping for. I'll gladly take another 3-5" and some ice if thats what we end up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 From Accuweather Met Joe Lundberg: While it's not currently part of the forecast package, I do wonder if there will be another 'burst' of warm advection snow on the front side of this across parts of the mid-Atlantic, spreading up into southern New England. That would likely occur Saturday afternoon into Saturday night if it does, but there's not necessarily a lot of support for that idea - yet. My concern, though, is if the secondary storm takes over quickly enough, there may be enough forcing and overrunning moisture to cause it to happen, and it would be across parts of Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey through southeastern New York into southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:16 PM, Superstorm93 said: No help from the ECMWF. Weak system overall. This thread is going to be unbearable to read now... What I learned from all of this is that it's December and above average snowfall is very important to our overall winter snowfall. The higher the December snowfall, the better the chance we will have above average snowfall. Any minor snowfall is basically a plus at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:19 PM, Allsnow said: nobody care about ur backyard….stop I don't see the problem with him posting a 6-8" lollipop in Somerville (SMQ). It's not near him anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:23 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: What I learned from all of this is that it's December and above average snowfall is very important to our overall winter snowfall. The higher the December snowfall, the better the chance we will have above average snowfall. Any minor snowfall is basically a plus at this point. Depending on which December average you look at it we are already very close to getting to average snowfall for the month with still nearly 3 weeks to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:25 PM, David-LI said: This event is over. All models are in agreement that this will be a minor event. No support to be found anywhere and the players are not there. Move on. Seriously, enough with this. Just because you think it will rain in your backyard doesnt mean there isnt anything to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:25 PM, David-LI said: This event is over. All models are in agreement that this will be a minor event. No support to be found anywhere and the players are not there. Move on. Seriously? In what universe is 4 to 6" of snow with icing a minor event? This is still something to track that will impact travel in our area even if it doesn't drop a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:22 PM, jm1220 said: I don't see why people want a strong system particularly along the coast, and what's wrong with the 3-6" of snow it apparently shows. A strong system will scour out the cold air faster unless miraculously it tracks well offshore, while a weak one would be snow or mix for more people until the end, at which point the precip is likely gone anyway. And for those wondering how the warm air can get here so fast, that's what happens with a strong SE Ridge and east winds. The warm air is never far away from this area. I agree, yesterday's runs were eye candy, without blocking this is probably best case scenarios especially for metro area to see snow. Any further inland and there will be a changeover at the coast and mix inland.. I'd rather have 3" of snow than a big ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We'll have to watch for more of a dry slot on later runs if the euro keeps up with that bullseye max well east of ACY. Could mean and initial burst of snow followed by a change to plain light rain or light freezing rain drizzle interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:28 PM, Plfdwxdude said: Seriously? In what universe is 4 to 6" of snow with icing a minor event? This is still something to track that will impact travel in our area even if it doesn't drop a foot of snow. Exactly! The boards were lit up with a 3" event why would this be minor lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:30 PM, bluewave said: We'll have to watch for more of a dry slot on later runs if the euro keeps up with that bullseye max well east of ACY. Could mean and initial burst of snow followed by a change to plain light rain or light freezing rain drizzle interior. This has precip well offshore with showery weather over land written all over it, after the initial burst of snow from the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ill take another 4-6 inches of mood snow in a +AO pattern any time over. People should relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:24 PM, Plfdwxdude said: I don't see the problem with him posting a 6-8" lollipop in Somerville (SMQ). It's not near him anyway Thats my backyard...i'll take the 6-8 any day!! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 lets hope this " non event " verifies ...And if u look at surfaces they are below 32 just NW of the city for the whole event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Weather Bell ECM snow maps show a general 3-5 inches from this storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ratios might be pretty high to start with such a cold airmass…something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:36 PM, PB GFI said: lets hope this " non event " verifies ...And if u look at surfaces they are below 32 just NW of the city for the whole event Look how wide spread this " non event" is lol, if this was 2 days ago people would be buying lotto tickets lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:28 PM, Plfdwxdude said: Seriously? In what universe is 4 to 6" of snow with icing a minor event? This is still something to track that will impact travel in our area even if it doesn't drop a foot of snow. Agreed. You guys are way too bi-polar at times. (this section) Lets just relax and give it time. 0z NAM tonight should be a nice endorphin release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:28 PM, Plfdwxdude said: Seriously? In what universe is 4 to 6" of snow with icing a minor event? This is still something to track that will impact travel in our area even if it doesn't drop a foot of snow. That's warning Criteria for most. And I believe the Dec snowfall threshold for a normal snow fall average is 3.1" in the Park. Although many or most of us already exceed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You guys are unreal..any snow before Christmas is a bonus on the coast ..guess nobody lived through the 70's 80's and 90's?..guess not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Not sure why everyone is hoping for a big coastal low. Overrunning is our best chance for keeping most of the area mostly snow/frozen. To me the 12z euro run is probably the most positive one over the last model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Rgem shows a pretty significant storm N+W of NYC with a good front end dump of snow for NYC before a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:36 PM, PB GFI said: lets hope this " non event " verifies ...And if u look at surfaces they are below 32 just NW of the city for the whole event This says 4-6" of snow for NYC. Just what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:38 PM, OrangeCountySnowZ said: Look how wide spread this " non event" is lol, if this was 2 days ago people would be buying lotto tickets lol That's probably the best outcome we can hope for with the storm. Unless you're in VT/NH, there's no point in rooting for a strong system. We want a weaker system to gradually spread snow ahead of it and have 90% of the storm done by the time it gets too warm. We won't get a powerful Nor'easter to bring snow in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:45 PM, OrangeCountySnowZ said: Rgem shows a pretty significant storm N+W of NYC with a good front end dump of snow for NYC before a changeover GGEM*, Rgem only goes out to 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:48 PM, jm1220 said: That's probably the best outcome we can hope for with the storm. Unless you're in VT/NH, there's no point in rooting for a strong system. We want a weaker system to gradually spread snow ahead of it and have 90% of the storm done by the time it gets too warm. We won't get a powerful Nor'easter to bring snow in this pattern. Def not without blocking... Idc how much artic air we have its gonna get overrun by a powerful storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 On 12/11/2013 at 6:49 PM, Zir0b said: GGEM*, Rgem only goes out to 48 hrs That's what I meant srry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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