cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Picked up a tenth or two from the first band, but it has lifted north, and the snow has shut off. It's pretty clear the heaviest snowfall will definitely orient itself just north of here overnight. Still think we have a shot at 1.5-2" later tonight, but the 3-4" snows will miss just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 DVN growing a bit more pessimistic as the night goes on... .UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013WITH SNOW TOTALS COMING IN FAR LESS THAN FORECAST THROUGH 06Z...IHAVE HAD TO CUT BACK GREATLY ON SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT.FORCING STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OFINTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD 0.05 TO 0.10 OF QPF.THUS...A 1 TO 2.5 INCH TOTAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY OVERTHIS AREA BEFORE IS SHUTS DOWN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW DO NOTAPPEAR AS LIKELY TO BE STRONG AS EARLIER FORECAST. I HAVE TRIMMEDLEVELS BACK TO A 20 GUST 30 FORECAST FOR NOW. I WILL PASS TO THENEXT SHIFT THAT THIS MAY GREATLY INHIBIT SEVERITY OF BLOWINGSNOW...OR IN THIS CASE ENHANCE A LACK OF ITS OCCURRENCE.ERVIN Looking like this little clipper has done the opposite of what we love when tracking these winter systems. This one has sort of crapped the bed in the midnight hour. So many times when tracking winter systems we get a last-minute uptick in intensity that increases amounts, but this event is on the other range of the spectrum. Even though it will serve to be a bit of a disappointment for some areas, it's been pretty fun to forecast the last few days. Definitely beats the relentless boredom from last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Slightly over a 28:1 ratio...off of 0.07 liquid. 1203 AM SNOW WATERLOO AIRPORT 42.56N 92.40W12/11/2013 M2.0 INCH BLACK HAWK IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Slightly over a 28:1 ratio...off of 0.07 liquid. 1203 AM SNOW WATERLOO AIRPORT 42.56N 92.40W 12/11/2013 M2.0 INCH BLACK HAWK IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS Vertical temp profiles look very similar downstream so will probably see some >20:1 ratios in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 DVN growing a bit more pessimistic as the night goes on... .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013 WITH SNOW TOTALS COMING IN FAR LESS THAN FORECAST THROUGH 06Z...I HAVE HAD TO CUT BACK GREATLY ON SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT. FORCING STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD 0.05 TO 0.10 OF QPF. THUS...A 1 TO 2.5 INCH TOTAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY OVER THIS AREA BEFORE IS SHUTS DOWN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW DO NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY TO BE STRONG AS EARLIER FORECAST. I HAVE TRIMMED LEVELS BACK TO A 20 GUST 30 FORECAST FOR NOW. I WILL PASS TO THE NEXT SHIFT THAT THIS MAY GREATLY INHIBIT SEVERITY OF BLOWING SNOW...OR IN THIS CASE ENHANCE A LACK OF ITS OCCURRENCE. ERVIN Looking like this little clipper has done the opposite of what we love when tracking these winter systems. This one has sort of crapped the bed in the midnight hour. So many times when tracking winter systems we get a last-minute uptick in intensity that increases amounts, but this event is on the other range of the spectrum. Even though it will serve to be a bit of a disappointment for some areas, it's been pretty fun to forecast the last few days. Definitely beats the relentless boredom from last December. I think they gave up too soon. Still looks like an axis, although a narrow one, from N-C. IA to N-C. IL that will see 2-4". That axis will probably end up just south/west of ORD, thus 1.5" looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Snow starting here. Already sticking. Ground so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Just started snowing very lightly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nice band stretching west from KLOT through Yorkville to eventually Sublette. Seems like if anyone's going to get the 3-4" LOT's been advertising, it'll be along that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah Chicago should do fine with a 2-3", I don't see a 1.3" happening on the lake shore. but don't worry, my 1.3 will bust high as well. currently at .00001" with ---SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Solid SN here. A nice surprise. I was only expecting flurries or snow showers. Get to tack on a few tenths to my yearly total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 DVN was wrong to cut back totals last night. They were thinking 2-5 in the main band and that is exactly what fell. We got off to a slow start, but I ended up with 2.5 inches of snow from only 0.10" of liquid. This stuff is as light as air. Just a bit northeast of CR they got 3.5-4 inches. The overnight radar loop suggests there should be a few 5 inch totals in a couple counties between CR and Dubuque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 2.3" imby this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 1.5 thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 About 0.5" here. Flake size did not look big at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 1.3" here. Stuff seems like it's almost 30:1. Brings us to nearly 5" for the season, which is well ahead of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 .4 storm total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 last hour of snow didn't add to anything (maybe a dusting)...looks like about 1.5 will be the total... Alek's 1 - 2 original call was prolly the best bet here...not sure what ORD had for a final tally though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 0.4" here and probably 0.2" in Racine. Just enough snow to make the roads wet and have the grime shoot up onto your windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 0.4" here and probably 0.2" in Racine. Just enough snow to make the roads wet and have the grime shoot up onto your windshield. lol...sneeze and the driveway is cleared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 when normally wet models like the hi-res nmm trend drier on your clipper....take notice and cut back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Haven't gone outside yet but roads are covered here. Looks like an inch and change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 DTX issues a special weather statement for up to an inch of snow in the next 5 hours....gonna get BLITZED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ended up with 1.0" here...Off 0.05" liquid, for a 20:1 ratio. Looks like there was a band of 1-4" from Sioux Falls to NE. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 1.2" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 1.3" here and still solid SN. No wind and big flakes = snowglobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 haha, 50:1 if this is right PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 905 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0700 AM SNOW MAZON 41.24N 88.42W 12/11/2013 M1.5 INCH GRUNDY IL EMERGENCY MNGR 1.5 INCHES SNOWFALL AT 7 AM. 0.03 INCHES LIQUID...2 INCH SNOW DEPTH. FROM GRUNDY CO EMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Pretty fluffy here, but I don't think it's quite 50:1 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 ORD ended up with 0.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indeedinger Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 4" here. Up to 13.5" on the season so far, pretty much all of it super fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 ORD ended up with 0.7" haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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