Geos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The snow around Ft. Dodge is pretty much heading down US 20 right now. HRRR picking up on that route pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Lowest vis I can find atm is at Algona Iowa at 0135z of 3/4 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 0z NAM is even drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 0z NAM is even drier. saw that coming a mile away...writing has been on the wall for a while now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 DVN... I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS...BUT HAVE NOTCHANGED THE OVER ALL THEME OF THIS SNOW EVENT. IT IS CLEAR TO METHAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO A NIL EVENT ON THE SOUTHFLANK...WHICH I HAVE ATTEMPTED TO OUTLINE IN THE LAST WSW UPDATE.LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF IOWA CITY TO MUSCATINE TO SOUTHERN HENRYCOUNTY MIGHT WONDER WHAT ALL THE SNOW TALK WAS ALL ABOUT IN THEEND. JUST NORTH OF THE NIL CUT OFF...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR APERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO3 INCHES SEEM ON TARGET...MAYBE A FEW HIGHER TOTALS IN A NARROWAXIS MOST LIKELY FROM CID...TO CWI...TO STERLING ILLINOIS. WINDSSHOULD NOT INCREASE AT ALL UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW COMPLETELY ENDS.IN THE END...WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE SOUTH FLANK OF THE WSWEARLY TOMORROW SHOULD SNOW NOT FALL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CREATE ALASTING BLOWING/DRIFTING THREAT WHEN THE WINDS INCREASE. THE MOSTSIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THIS FORECAST THAT I IMAGINE IS NOT BEINGPASSED ON...IS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAPIDLY FALLINGTEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE WESTERN CWAALL DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 -SN at DEH. Further east snow report I could find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 00z 4km NAM gives Hawkeye about 0.15". I'm expecting at least 20:1 ratios with this thing, but wouldn't be surprised to see even higher ratios than that. So CR should be good for 3-4". We are literally right on the 0.1" line on the 4km. Should fluff up to a nice 2" snow, but man that cutoff to the south is very sharp. Could be a big difference in accumulations from the IL QC to the IA QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think the WWA will bust here, if this map holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Can't complain with a little freshness added to the snowpack. Hoping the weekend system pans out for a solid advisory event, but then it looks like a few shots of snow into next week as well. Nickle and diming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 wave really dampens as it pushes into NE IL....best amounts will be well west/southwest of the area 1.3" final call looking decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Radar looks pretty paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 20 dbz returns heading east along and south of US 20 - crossing the MS River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Radar looks pretty paltry. returns blossoming somewhat in IA. Next few hours will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 LOT... 920 PM CSTTHE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAYMORNING CONTINUES AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECASTSNOWFALL TIMING OR TOTAL AMOUNTS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOWIN FOR THE MORNING IN THE FAR WEST AND SPREAD IT EASTWARD DURINGTHE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD...OR SHOULD WE SAY COLDER...AIR SURGESBACK IN.THE POSITIVES TOWARD SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN INOBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS AND TEMPORARY MODEST RATES...WHILE THE SUBTLECAVEATS OF A SOMEWHAT WEAK WAVE AND LOW COLUMN MOISTURE ARE LIKELYTO BE OFFSET BY THESE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 2-3.5" SNOWFALL AMOUNTSAND LIKELY SCATTERED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.RADAR ECHOES ARE ON THE UPWARD TREND ACROSS CENTRAL IA WITHIN THEWARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPORPROGRESSING EAST SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE WILL TURN MORE EAST ALONG AWELL-DEFINED 850-600MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SEEN ON THIS EVES UPPERAIR DATA. HAVE ALREADY NOTED 3/4SM VISIBILITY IN IA...LIKELYASSOCIATED WITH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR TYPE RATES. WITHCLIPPER SYSTEMS IT SEEMS THAT THE LOWEST VISIBILITY CAN OFTEN BEEXTRAPOLATED OUT ALONG THE PATH GIVEN THE WAVE MAINTAINS ITSINTENSITY. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY QUICK PROGRESSIONOF THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN12AM-3AM...SO DID NOT GET FANCY WITH TRYING TO ADJUST THE ADVISORYSTART TIME. TEMPORARY WEST-TO-EAST BANDED SNOW OVERNIGHT WOULDSEEM PROBABLE IN NORTH CENTRAL IL...MAYBE INTO THE CHICAGOMETRO...ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FAIRLY WELL-DEFINEDMOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING/HIGH RES GUIDANCEINDICATES HIGHER REFLECTIVITY AS WELL IN THE 3-8 AM PERIOD. SNOWLOOKS TO LINGER OVER CHICAGO THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVISORY TIME.FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY DEEP DENDRITICGROWTH AREA WITH NOT OVERLY HIGH WINDS BELOW THE CLOUD BASE FORFRAGMENTING. EVEN THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING HAD THE WET BULBTEMPERATURE BASICALLY WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA ALL THE WAYTO ~10000 FT! THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD EFFICIENCY (20:1) OFMEAGER PWAT VALUES UNDER 0.2 INCH AND MIXING RATIOS IN THE CLOUDLAYER OF 1-1.5 G/KG. SO WE CONTINUE A LITTLE HIGHER THAT MOSTGUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.THE MOST PROBABLE TIMING FOR HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES IN ROCKFORDIS 2-6 AM AND CHICAGO IS 4-8 AM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TOINCH UP PRIOR TO THE SNOWFALL...AND THEN HOLD STEADY IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS DURING THE SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Snowing lightly just up the river in Savanna now, so the snow has breached the IA/IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 RPM for 5:45am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Is this ma natures way of hinting at what is to come in S.MI? Can still see it till it updates at 12:30am i think it is? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=700mb&underlay=0&source=1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Damn, got about 1.25" of snowfall in about 10 min with the LES.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Is this ma natures way of hinting at what is to come in S.MI? Let's do it! lOL funnyweatherimage.gif Can still see it till it updates at 12:30am i think it is? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=700mb&underlay=0&source=1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 snow has begun here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I almost spit out my drink when i saw it.. Was thinking how fitting for it to be located there.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 snow has begun here... Wow, radar not really showing much of anything in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Damn, got about 1.25" of snowfall in about 10 min with the LES.. Pics? That is a lot of snow for 10 mins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wow, radar not really showing much of anything in your area. yeah....thought it was just stuff blowing off the roof after looking at the radar so I went outside to double check before I posted....it's quite fine, but it has commenced none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wow, radar not really showing much of anything in your area. Was wondering about that earlier here when it was snowing and the radar showed hardly a thing imby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Pics? That is a lot of snow for 10 mins... OK let me take some pics..give me a min... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Light snow just started here a few mins ago. EDIT: Sidewalks already dusting over quickly. Can definitely tell this is high ratio/efficiently accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Very fluffy snow!...Seriously I had to go out to do this? We are all so desperate lmao.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wow very fluffy indeed. Looked out the window here in Royal Oak. Nothing to report. Congrats on the score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wow very fluffy indeed. Looked out the window here in Royal Oak. Nothing to report. Congrats on the score. Flake size was enormous.. these little streamers mean business.. 1 mile south from my house there is nothing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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