A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Don't quite see what you're talking about... wave really dampens as it pushes into NE IL....best amounts will be well west/southwest of the area 1.3" final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Don't quite see what you're talking about... The NAM, the most bullish of the longer range models, has dried a bit. Should still be good for 1-3" for many in Northern Illinois, but I don't buy 4-6" lollipops like Tsnow alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 this continues to baby step towards non-event Lol cause of a weaker NAM run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The NAM, the most bullish of the longer range models, has dried a bit. Should still be good for 1-3" for many in Northern Illinois, but I don't buy 4-6" lollipops like Tsnow alluded to. Head to Iowa then. Won't be hard to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Lol cause of a weaker NAM run? minor baby steps drier on each run, particularly 12z hi-res runs which are now under a tenth north of I88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The NAM, the most bullish of the longer range models, has dried a bit. Should still be good for 1-3" for many in Northern Illinois, but I don't buy 4-6" lollipops like Tsnow alluded to. Was never expecting those amounts to begin with. The NAM was an outlier with its overdone amounts and now has come in line with other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Head to Iowa then. Won't be hard to come by. May be a report here or there, but even the most bullish of models suggest 0.15"-0.2"QPF, which with 20:1-25:1 ratios, puts 4" of snow still on the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Even if the drier runs win out, still seems like a widespread 1-3" would be likely in northern IL with locally higher amounts with the good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 May be a report here or there, but even the most bullish of models suggest 0.15"-0.2"QPF, which with 20:1-25:1 ratios, puts 4" of snow still on the high end. There will some really high ratios with a 250-300mb DGZ and good banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Sometimes really cold temps are actually a hindrance to good snow production. I did see the deep dgz, but I still think 1-3" will be the general rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 minor baby steps drier on each run, particularly 12z hi-res runs which are now under a tenth north of I88 Holy Crap SSM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Similar setups have produced some big surprises for us with these type of set ups in the past. Obviously to far north this time, but I wouldn't rule out 4-6 inch reports in north central iowa. Only thing is there may be a little more wind then in some of these set-ups that I have seen in the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 LOT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH A BAND OF SNOW SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS MAY ONLY RANGE IN THE 0.15 INCH RANGE...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE COLD AND EXPECT SNOW/WATER RATIOS IN THE 18:1 TO 20:1 RANGE. THUS THE SNOW SHOULD BE QUITE DRY AND FLUFFY. HAVE BUMPED QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY IN THE 2.5 TO 3 INCH RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THIS LOW BEGINS TO FILL SOME BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHER WESTERN AREAS THEN EASTERN AREAS. THE ONE CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE GROWTH ZONE OF -10C TO -14C WHICH BASED OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS COULD BE 150MB TO EVEN 200MB DEEP. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EFFICIENT SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH LARGE FLAKES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR EVEN HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING AN INCH AN HOUR FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL BE EXTENDING THE SNOW ADVISORY NORTH TO INCLUDE THE FOUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MENTIONING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS MAY MATERIALIZE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The NAM, the most bullish of the longer range models, has dried a bit. Should still be good for 1-3" for many in Northern Illinois, but I don't buy 4-6" lollipops like Tsnow alluded to. DVN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 04-18Z FOR 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGH LWE OF 20-25:1 ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. LOCAL FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 40 MILE SWATH OF 3+ INCHES WITH CENTER OF THE AXIS ROUGHLY NEAR A VTI-CID-CWI-VYS LINE. LOCALLY 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ARE SUPPORTED. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS. AFTER SURFACE LOW PASSES EAST NEAR DAYBREAK...STRONG NW WINDS OF 25 TO 35+ MPH WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL RESULT IN THE VERY POWDERY SNOW TO LIFT AND BLOW ACROSS SURFACES...AS EVIDENCED TO WHAT HAPPENED THIS AM BUT MORE SO DUE TO MORE SNOW AND STRONGER WINDS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...AS TYPICAL WITH CLIPPERS...LITTLE OR NO SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW TRACK. LOCATIONS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH SEE MORE LIKELY SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 So I guess LOT and DVN are ignoring the models showing a more I-80 event. Advisory here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 texted my friend earlier I think someone will get 5 or 6" somewhere out of this if trends hold. I'm still riding 2 to 4 (after my bump from 1 to 2) .... I back the above statement as well though... Either way...with the sun coming out today a small crust has developed on what was already powdery snow to begin with...so upon completion of this clipper, once the winds get cranking....it's gonna look and feel like legit winter out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Our snow is breaking out around FSD. Satellite shot showing storm cutting across the IA/MN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 18z GFS north and wetter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm not sure what to expect. DVN going with 3-4 inches for Cedar Rapids, but models suggest 1.5-2.0. I'll go with 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 LOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm not sure what to expect. DVN going with 3-4 inches for Cedar Rapids, but models suggest 1.5-2.0. I'll go with 2. Yeah tough forecast to be sure. You and me seem to be lining up similarly with this thing. Looks like we'll be riding the southern edge of it. We've seen how sharp the cutoff can be with these little clippers in past years. The "super clipper" from a few years back just absolutely dumped on us, while just southwest they barely saw anything. Just gonna have to watch radar trends this evening, but I'm hopeful to pick up at least an inch or two. My gut feeling is for the heaviest axis to lay down from around Independence Iowa to Dekalb Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Will go with final total of Sunday's event as final call for this event, 2.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yeah Chicago should do fine with a 2-3", I don't see a 1.3" happening on the lake shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yeah Chicago should do fine with a 2-3", I don't see a 1.3" happening on the lake shore. What's your call for these parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What's your call for these parts? Inch to inch and a half. Maybe someone gets lucky and pulls out 2" but I'd be surprised. Better chances of a higher value closer to the border. Up along 69 and north probably less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Picked up 0.1" here and 0.2" at ORD, from the 1st clipper this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Snow is almost to the I-35 corridor in Iowa. Snowing at Webster and Clarion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Don't mind my location for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indeedinger Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah tough forecast to be sure. You and me seem to be lining up similarly with this thing. Looks like we'll be riding the southern edge of it. We've seen how sharp the cutoff can be with these little clippers in past years. The "super clipper" from a few years back just absolutely dumped on us, while just southwest they barely saw anything. Just gonna have to watch radar trends this evening, but I'm hopeful to pick up at least an inch or two. My gut feeling is for the heaviest axis to lay down from around Independence Iowa to Dekalb Illinois. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Radar seems to match models. Iowa special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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