SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This setup reminds me of 12/24/98...though maybe its slightly further NW. It is the #5 analog on CIPS for the 24 hour panel....overall though none of the analogs are all that good, only one scoring over 13.0 and I find that usually does not work too well....1-1-86 is the best analog by alot and that date does not stand out in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Will do you remember the February 24-25th 1999 event? Anyways GFS has a 12 hour event, while NAM has 9 hour event, which one to believe? GFS is more amplified at H5 too. 12z GGEM isn't bad at all. Yes....this is nothing like that event at all. Much closer to something like 12/24/98, though I'm hesitant to say we get amounts in the max zone like that one. This one could still end up too sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yes....this is nothing like that event at all. Much closer to something like 12/24/98, though I'm hesitant to say we get amounts in the max zone like that one. This one could still end up too sheared. Check Dec 1988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 there could be quite the band running from NYC to CHH or ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Will I know these are two different beasts all together. Someone could get 6"+ from this system. I don't models are done trending upward in QPF amounts given that the shortwave is quite strong at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 BOX this AM talking about a lot of the same points as in here. DETAILS...TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.WILL BE MONITORING FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW PARTICULARLY S OF THEMASS PIKE FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AWEAK SFC FRONTAL WAVE INITIATES SOME MODEST MID LVL F-GEN BANDINGTO ITS N. WHILE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND IS A LITTLEUNCERTAIN...HAVE AT LEAST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ERR TOWARD HIGHCHANCE-LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. INTERESTINGLY...THELIFT PROVIDED BY THE F-GEN BAND IS LOCATED ALMOST PERFECTLY IN THE-10C TO -20C LAYER WHICH IS ICE-SATURATED...SOMETHING THISMORNING/S STORM WAS LACKING. GIVEN THAT THIS WAVE LOOKS TO HAVEGULF ORIGINS...QPF VALUES WITHIN THE BAND RANGE FROM 0.1-0.4INCHES DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. RATIOS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER DUE TOWEAKER WINDS AND BETTER SNOW GROWTH EFFICIENCY COULD YIELD NEARADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR SOME AREAS IN CT/RI/SE MA...BUT THEREIS ALSO A FAIR AMOUNT OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. NOTCONFIDENT IN THE BAND SETUP TO PULL THE TRIGGER...BUT SOMETHINGWORTH WATCHING. FURTHER N...MAY BE A SHARP CUTOFF ACROSS NRN MAAND SRN NH WHERE LITTLE TO NO SNOW MAY BE OBSERVED. TEMPS MAY ALSOBE AN ISSUE AS SOME MAY JUST INCH ABOVE FREEZING AS SNOWS TAPEROFF...SO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR DYNAMIC COOLING WHICH COULD PROMOTESNOW ACCUM DESPITE TEMPS WARMING TO THE MID 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 And once again preceeding a snow event the 12Z SPC WRF decides to not run, I know it has plenty of days where its 12Z run does not come out but always seems to be before significant events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I hope you win this... but what is supporting 8-10" anywhere? I don't think the model suite as a whole supports those numbers, but if the GFS is correct in showing .5-.6 QPF on Long Island through central CT, it's not much of a stretch to think some spots could see 8" with good snow growth. The GFS is currently on its own with those QPF numbers, though, so I'm not ready to take it at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Check Dec 1988 Nope, that was an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nope, that was an inverted trough.Do you have a link to snowfall amounts with that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Check Dec 1988 Does 2/3/96 not fit this to an extent? Sort of a weaker wave not so strong low pressure area riding along a tight coastal thermal gradient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12-24-1998 links for reference: NWS Taunton PNS http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/DE259801 Storm summary (a bit NJ focused, but very useful): http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1999/24-Dec-98.html Totally off topic, but that 13 December 1988 snow is one of my favorites of all time. It was completely unforecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 There was an event in Jan 1997 that was also more anafrontal in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z GGEM looks to bring the best stuff right along the S Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z GGEM looks to bring the best stuff right along the S Coast. The RGEM is somewhat similar, the RGEM was the only model last even to perfectly get the PHL meso band placed, of course it did not do that til its 12Z run te day of but it did a decent job on the event as a whole 24 hours out and its timing has been very good, both the RGEM/GEM seem to start this earlier from DCA-BOS and end it earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12-24-1998 links for reference: NWS Taunton PNS http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/DE259801 Storm summary (a bit NJ focused, but very useful): http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1999/24-Dec-98.html Totally off topic, but that 13 December 1988 snow is one of my favorites of all time. It was completely unforecast. Mine too. I remember it so well. I was taking drivers ed and had class that nite and it was my first time driving in the snow. The instructor was shocked at the snow and cut short the lesson. It was ripping that evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 There was an event in Jan 1997 that was also more anafrontal in nature. Yes, that is a good one...I think it was 1/11/97 Here is the 1988 snowfall for KEvin...the inverted trough signature is very apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 To me....I wonder if the best band is to my nw. Up towards Easton, bob up to scooter and arcing down towards Hindu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hindu= ginxy on the iPhone sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The RGEM is somewhat similar, the RGEM was the only model last even to perfectly get the PHL meso band placed, of course it did not do that til its 12Z run te day of but it did a decent job on the event as a whole 24 hours out and its timing has been very good, both the RGEM/GEM seem to start this earlier from DCA-BOS and end it earlier Thanks. Anxious to see what the Euro shows shortly. Snow is in the cards, now it's just a matter of how much and where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 With so many "waves" occurring in such short order, ...2 days ago, last night, tomorrow night... it almost seems as though this is a "pattern event," more so than any single deal. almost like lulls in the same extended event -- interesting. Yeah, this thing first showed up about 3 days ago in GFS's 18z run. I remember asking folks if they saw it, and of course it was immediately dismissed as typical GFS ana fantasy. Well...here we are.. Still looks rather ana -like to me, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You know what would be funny is if this has more and more ridging on next 18 hrs and king James pours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Oh my god hi guys sorry I'm late. Someone dust me off, I forgot how this **** works. Snow for me tomorrow, yes? Possibly also you, but mostly me? When do the new SREF's roll out? Oh and if someone could get me a panini that would be aces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 euro is not overly enthused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro has a tenth up to the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro still quite meh... a bit more QPF than before. Well short of GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro is a bit of an improvement...still not biting on a GFS solution though. Looks like 1-2" for many and maybe some 3" amounts in far SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Tough position for mets today. Impact could be very high, but so is uncertainty. Commute is going to be nightmarish tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro has a tenth up to the Pike.Make that a tenth up through central Mass. A quarter from LI to the elbow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Usually it's the GFS that lends to confusion. This time it's the Euro. Interesting how it keeps creeping and bumping up totals each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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