NorEastermass128 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 So you don't see snow tomorrow for many? Accuweather map has 3-6" south of the pike and SEMA up to BOS FWLIW. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Accuweather map has 3-6" south of the pike and SEMA up to BOS FWLIW. Congrats! Ryan's station has all areas south of pike in 1-3 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ryan's station has all areas south of pike in 1-3 tomorrow. Seems like a good call. Watch what unfolds today. Maybe some get bumped up or bumped down with the midday/evening runs. LR looks good for plenty of chances too. Good morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 So you don't see snow tomorrow for many? Posts like this are an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Posts like this are an issue. What types of issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro ensembles still have very paltry QPF . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NAM fronto banding tool is going bonkers for the S Coast. image.jpg Lets keep posting these as event draws near and bump it north please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro ensembles still have very paltry QPF . I think the Euro is really out to lunch on this event, not just up in SNE but down into the TN Valley, the RGEM/NAM/Hi Res models all hit places like BNA overnight with wintry precip meanwhile the Euro barely even gets anything into TN at all...to me this close in the Euro being this different than all models with the dynamics this event has in many locations probably is a product of its higher resolution not seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 To be fair the GFS didn't really have much until the 18Z run and there is no 18Z euro. This was the 12z GFS yesterday... pretty much a non-event. Not like it was really "sniffing" this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This was the 12z GFS yesterday... pretty much a non-event. Not like it was really "sniffing" this out. Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro ensembles still have very paltry QPF . It should come down to a west-east band somewhere in the vicinity of the south coast or maybe HFD-PVD latitude? I could see some narrow frontoband pick up maybe 3-4" of higher ratio snow, with a larger area of D-2" south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This was the 12z GFS yesterday... pretty much a non-event. Not like it was really "sniffing" this out. Not saying its correct but the NAM seems to have been and continues to be the most aggressive with this. BTW 27 -S nearing one inch this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 gut still says we are watching a band of good snows over the fish...with lighter stuff where it matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Id like to see some mets disagree with other sometimes on storms, patterns etc. like this event.. Maybe one met thinks it's mostly a miss while another totally disagrees and thinks its a decent hit. Could we try that at times if appropriate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Id like to see some mets disagree with other sometimes on storms, patterns etc. like this event.. Maybe one met thinks it's mostly a miss while another totally disagrees and thinks its a decent hit. Could we try that at times if appropriate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The latest HRRR runs down near the GuldFand TN Valley are strongly indicating that the Euro is going to be wrong at least down that way (obviously not a guarantee that translates up to the NE and SNE), precip is appearing at 00Z over TN/MS/AR well west of where the Euro indicates but more where the RGEM/NAM are...and in case nobody has noticed the HRRR has been on fire as of late with these storms, even at the end portion of its runs its been very accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 gut still says we are watching a band of good snows over the fish...with lighter stuff where it matters Yeah it's a weird setup. Some DCVA as the shortwave trough amplifies and a little surge of moisture coming up from the SE and plains. GFS and NAM have a nice frontogenetical circulation that produces decent lift for the coast especially so that could wind up being a mini fluff bomb somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Id like to see some mets disagree with other sometimes on storms, patterns etc. like this event.. Maybe one met thinks it's mostly a miss while another totally disagrees and thinks its a decent hit. Could we try that at times if appropriate? What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What do you mean?Maybe it because you guys are all so good at what you do, but you always seem to agree with each other. There never seems to be a different opinion. Like when DT or HM or others used to post they would offer up different opinions or reasons why they didn't agree with this met or that one. Obviously many times you'll all be in agreement because it's the correct idea, but there has to be times when Scooter or Will or Ryan posts things that you don't agree with and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Maybe it because you guys are all so good at what you do, but you always seem to agree with each other. There never seems to be a different opinion. Like when DT or HM or others used to post they would offer up different opinions or reasons why they didn't agree with this met or that one. Obviously many times you'll all be in agreement because it's the correct idea, but there has to be times when Scooter or Will or Ryan posts things that you don't agree with and vice versa. Most of us agree with details because we all see and understand the possibilties. Sure maybe someone thinks 2-4 vs 3-6, but just saying. I still have my doubts for 2" to BOS. Just not sure I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah it's a weird setup. Some DCVA as the shortwave trough amplifies and a little surge of moisture coming up from the SE and plains. GFS and NAM have a nice frontogenetical circulation that produces decent lift for the coast especially so that could wind up being a mini fluff bomb somewhere. Looks like there may be just enough separation between the 2 s/w allowing for the southern one to amplify just enough and in time to clip us. Not sure if this is something the ensembles would pick up very well. Delicate interaction between the 2 s/w to say the least. A lot can go wrong with this. Maybe we can catch a break and watch this come in more potent today at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 We will see with the midday runs. I like where I sit for this event though...... Might be tough the further west you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Expectations need to be kept low for now. That's the smart and safe play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I love posting about storms that are modeled to have poor snow growth... but the Tuesday event on the GFS/NAM has some phenomenal snow growth progged. A very deep saturated layer -12 to -18c with strongest omega centered right around -15C. We could really pile up some 15:1 or 20:1 fluff if this verifies as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I love posting about storms that are modeled to have poor snow growth... but the Tuesday event on the GFS/NAM has some phenomenal snow growth progged. A very deep saturated layer -12 to -18c with strongest omega centered right around -15C. We could really pile up some 15:1 or 20:1 fluff if this verifies as progged. Soundings on the GFS were nice. Even a slightly unstable layer above 500mb over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I love posting about storms that are modeled to have poor snow growth... but the Tuesday event on the GFS/NAM has some phenomenal snow growth progged. A very deep saturated layer -12 to -18c with strongest omega centered right around -15C. We could really pile up some 15:1 or 20:1 fluff if this verifies as progged. Definitely would be a better system with 850s in the -5 to -10C. Surface temps mid/upper 20s. Will stick around for a time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 BTW for those making GFS/Euro comparisons...even yesterdays 12z runs were leagues apart. At least the GFS had moisture into the region...the Euro was still a sheared POS well south. I thought the 6z NAM hinted that it was coming back east a little but we'll see. I'd be happy with 1-3" here all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Soundings on the GFS were nice. Even a slightly unstable layer above 500mb over the Cape. Definitely would be a better system with 850s in the -5 to -10C. Surface temps mid/upper 20s. Will stick around for a time too. All of this could be for nothing if the best forcing slides 75 miles east and we're smokin' cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Id like to see some mets disagree with other sometimes on storms, patterns etc. like this event.. Maybe one met thinks it's mostly a miss while another totally disagrees and thinks its a decent hit. Could we try that at times if appropriate? haha. You'd rather the mets bring some livelihood and disagreement rather than just weenies vs mets...I could see that. However these guys are all good because they approach with caution...and will go gung-ho when warranted. Everyone has the same idea with this little system...could be a few inches of snow, but also could miss with best forcing. No one is going to throw out widespread 3-5" though I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 All of this could be for nothing if the best forcing slides 75 miles east and we're smokin' cirrus. Yeah, can just as easily occur but let's focus only on the positives. 09z SREFs are around 0.25" from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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