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December 10th/11th winter storm threat


jamesnichols1989

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Lol...lim the same way. But snows serious bidness!

Conspicuous that the non NCEP data is much more reserved. I'll stick with 1-3 along RTE 24 from around 123 down to about 195, 2-4" from there points east. Boston? 2-3" seems most likely IMBY or at least at the bridges. Still may be jackpots of 3,4, maybe 5 if we can get the banding going.

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Banding in parts of southern MO dropped 3-5" tonight.  Most guidance had QPF of .1 or less.  Banding now setting up in south-central IN and looks to spread into OH.  It's doubtful this translates too far northeast (it would end up along the far NW edge of the precip shield), and we probably won't have quite the 15:1 or 20:1 fluff factor that they are experiencing, but you never know where these kinds of meso bands can set up.  The main precip shield is currently spreading into KY.

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Euro is a little NW of 12z...it brings the 6 hourly 0.10" qpf line at 18z tomorrow to the MA/NH border vs the MA/CT border at 12z.

 

 

The notable difference is a better defined vortmax rolling through the base of the trough...a bit less sheared.

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Euro is a little NW of 12z...it brings the 6 hourly 0.10" qpf line at 18z tomorrow to the MA/NH border vs the MA/CT border at 12z.

 

 

The notable difference is a better defined vortmax rolling through the base of the trough...a bit less sheared.

Okay so there is the Achilles heel I think of the other models. It's clearly well defined and has looked good all day Will. Someone is still going to be ticked when they get goalposted by the heavier band on one side and steadier snow on the other.....

Just saw the full ukie which was wet too. The main difference is that s/w and it still looks good

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Tough is right. Impressive radar but the band taking shape is narrow and there's going to be a screw zone on either side of it.

 

Take a look at the vaisala lightning explorer product.  There is lightning reported in southern VA, Southeastern MD on the Delmarva peninsula and just off the coast in the same area.  Indicative of an explosive situation, or just instability along a front, but that is associated with the surface low, so cyclogenesis could bring a stronger surface low before it exits stage right.  Also mesoscale banding over western VA and western MD taking shape.

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