weathafella Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 My guess is euro holds serve or maybe ticks NW. Night all. Your memory amazes me. God bless you sir! My wife asked me today if I fed the dogs this morning and I couldnt remember. Lol...l'm the same way. But snows serious bidness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Lol...lim the same way. But snows serious bidness! Conspicuous that the non NCEP data is much more reserved. I'll stick with 1-3 along RTE 24 from around 123 down to about 195, 2-4" from there points east. Boston? 2-3" seems most likely IMBY or at least at the bridges. Still may be jackpots of 3,4, maybe 5 if we can get the banding going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 both the nam and gfs show an unstable layer in the -12 to -16c zone here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 UKMET looked fine...not as wet as the NCEP stuff I don't think but supportive of 1-3 widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 All the local CT news stations seem to be going 2-4" across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I would absolutely buy the NAM solution believe it or not. Seems to be a good representation for what might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Banding in parts of southern MO dropped 3-5" tonight. Most guidance had QPF of .1 or less. Banding now setting up in south-central IN and looks to spread into OH. It's doubtful this translates too far northeast (it would end up along the far NW edge of the precip shield), and we probably won't have quite the 15:1 or 20:1 fluff factor that they are experiencing, but you never know where these kinds of meso bands can set up. The main precip shield is currently spreading into KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Most on air mets sticking too their guns here. Gotta respect it. This has pretty big bust potential and either direction. Shall be fun folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 both the nam and gfs show an unstable layer in the -12 to -16c zone hereNice look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 who's got the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 who's got the euro? Out to 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro is a little NW of 12z...it brings the 6 hourly 0.10" qpf line at 18z tomorrow to the MA/NH border vs the MA/CT border at 12z. The notable difference is a better defined vortmax rolling through the base of the trough...a bit less sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro is a little NW of 12z...it brings the 6 hourly 0.10" qpf line at 18z tomorrow to the MA/NH border vs the MA/CT border at 12z. The notable difference is a better defined vortmax rolling through the base of the trough...a bit less sheared. Okay so there is the Achilles heel I think of the other models. It's clearly well defined and has looked good all day Will. Someone is still going to be ticked when they get goalposted by the heavier band on one side and steadier snow on the other..... Just saw the full ukie which was wet too. The main difference is that s/w and it still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Whatever the site is doing between 1255 and 110 each day it blows. Crashes every single night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm still thinking 1-3" regionwide south of the MA Pike, and 3-6" in banding that develops over the South Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks like the 6z nam taketh away a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Everything looks on track 1-3 or 2-4..Take you pick regionwide. Euro still playing catchup. But at least it's trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks like the 6z nam taketh away a bit Its wrong, too far southeast with the heaviest QPF, polar disturbance is further southwest than progged by the 6z NAM at 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Radar looks pretty impressive and pretty far west..Better than i envisioned anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Perhaps this is a nice nowcast event. Someone is gonna prob start snowing ahead of schedule w a. weenie finger of snow pointing at them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hmmm someone say SW RI New snowfall map http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/ Note also lighter totals on outer cape Only thing is i would have thought perhaps a more sw-ne orientation of 2-4 May play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think the SOuth Coast can see 4-6", especially with the system further west than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Still a tough call nrn CT to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Gfs wins another? Leading the way the past few storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think you can safely say and feel very good about 1-3 at the pike and from there south 2-4..And north of it 1-2...something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Still a tough call nrn CT to BOS. Tough is right. Impressive radar but the band taking shape is narrow and there's going to be a screw zone on either side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Man does radar look impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Tough is right. Impressive radar but the band taking shape is narrow and there's going to be a screw zone on either side of it. Take a look at the vaisala lightning explorer product. There is lightning reported in southern VA, Southeastern MD on the Delmarva peninsula and just off the coast in the same area. Indicative of an explosive situation, or just instability along a front, but that is associated with the surface low, so cyclogenesis could bring a stronger surface low before it exits stage right. Also mesoscale banding over western VA and western MD taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Anyone south of the pike is going to do well I think everything seems to be working out for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Do you have a link to that? Things are looking to get underway down here shortly. The excitement is palpable. http://www.lightningstorm.com/explorer.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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