CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I can tell you this much after living in the NYC area for 20 years, whenever models show the heavy bands running from off SE NJ to Cape Cod it seems to verify on the nose every time no idea why but it just does I think what's different about this is the fact that we have no real closed area of low pressure. Just all mid level driven. I go back and forth with this lol. I see both sides. Very risky forecast. Luckily did not have to make one today although I would probably put snow for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Is this the model that the TV stations use for the computer generated radar? If so, it could scare the public. I think that is the RPM...could be wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I can tell you this much after living in the NYC area for 20 years, whenever models show the heavy bands running from off SE NJ to Cape Cod it seems to verify on the nose every time no idea why but it just doesI can back you on that 100 % and I have watched it for 40 years plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The only time I remember the RAP scoring a huge coup was the morning of 1/26/11...remember when all the models finally shoved that event SE and we were going to get 1-3/2-4? Then the RAP that morning starting giving us monster bands into SNE and at first we were thinking it was just being vintage RUC/RAP outside of about 8 hours...but then it never really backed down, and the 18z models all started coming on board and then finally the water vapor and radar were unmistakable by 6-7pm. That was a wild day that started with a NW RUC run. Ahh yes. The Burbank storm lol. Maybe this will be my Burbank bust That day was insane. It started with that renegade WAA band too south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 PHI under a winter storm warning now. It's a Philly kind of week! Yup this thing looks great for that area. Highest totals will be down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks impressive on the wv loop I wish we had a bit more ridging out in front Phil's post earlier reminded me of another thing WRT this system and expectations. Nevermind the over-performance down in Philly yesterday. But the trend in the models last 24 hours has been NW and it JUST gets the Meso Banding to the S Coast. A shift SE at 0z will make this a yawner for everyone but Halloween Gale and he can post about this storm 25 years from now in SNE snowstorm memories and no one will have a clue what he's talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Can already see the moisture popping in LA. Headed right for Steve and Phil http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=small&endDate=20131210&endTime=-1&duration=0 This system is on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Weird RAP run...our maps show some pytype issues in SNE and warm 2m temps. I call bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nobody mentioning the elephant in the box, low level temps near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yup this thing looks great for that area. Highest totals will be down there.I figured TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Only thing I worry about is the boned zone the high res models show. Can kind of see this already on the wv. Will be an ample lead of moisture separated by a line of not much. Someone may get bent under that while it snows on both sides. Also temps....but those should come down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Srefs: 0.1 line to just south of the nh/ma border. 0.25 along the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nobody mentioning the elephant in the box, low level temps near the coast Ya if James Rains in this storm, Americanwx should set up a donation for him the hi res nam I thinks brings temps to the upper 30's by 9am Just E of the Canal but then drops them to 33 or so when band moves in. That why I like SW RI in this one ....not PTYPE issues ...just BL temps possibly hurting accums on cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Srefs: 0.1 line to just south of the nh/ma border. 0.25 along the south coast. A tick drier..but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Only thing I worry about is the boned zone the high res models show. Can kind of see this already on the wv. Will be an ample lead of moisture separated by a line of not much. Someone may get bent under that while it snows on both sides. Also temps....but those should come down As a side note I anticipate mild panic when temps at 9am are 36-39 from you to king james Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 00Z RAP coming in colder and has the mesoband further south. That's the last time I hope to mention that model tonight. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Only thing I worry about is the boned zone the high res models show. Can kind of see this already on the wv. Will be an ample lead of moisture separated by a line of not much. Someone may get bent under that while it snows on both sides. Also temps....but those should come down As a side note I anticipate mild panic when temps at 9am are 36-39 from you to king james SBL is relatively meaningless tomorrow I think. If it ends up mattering then the precip shield is garbage and the event sucked anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 SBL is relatively meaningless tomorrow I think. If it ends up mattering then the precip shield is garbage and the event sucked anyway I hope so, I mean for the cape's sake, but put yourself in the mind of a weenie staring at the temp creep up by mid morning.....maybe a dim sun.....thoughts wandering....rope...chair looking for RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 SBL is relatively meaningless tomorrow I think. If it ends up mattering then the precip shield is garbage and the event sucked anyway I hope so, I mean for the cape's sake, but put yourself in the mind of a weenie staring at the temp creep up by mid morning.....maybe a dim sun.....thoughts wandering....rope...chair looking for RAP I could see it starting as liquid even. But if it's going to do something worthwhile, that won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I hope so, I mean for the cape's sake, but put yourself in the mind of a weenie staring at the temp creep up by mid morning.....maybe a dim sun.....thoughts wandering....rope...chair looking for RAP I don't think you'd survive down here for a winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 it's coming http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=vwx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Fwiw on the cape nam crashes temps as the stuff moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 NAM is wetter now from BOS to HFD and points SE, but tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nam is just a few miles north 18 hours vs 18z 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nam looks great to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Really hits S coast hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Rap not backing down...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Gosh, BOS right on the line this NAM run, I'm definitely worried about sucking exhaust up here. I'm hoping for 1-2" and thinking that fits well with current modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The s/w that could...looks very nice on the WV products and the NAM bumped it up this run vs 18z. Long as it doesn't fall to pieces tomorrow we're in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Our NAM snow maps drop 4-6" over S-C CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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