N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I have no idea how it's been performing but one can think it at least has some validity I think messenger would be the one to ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Going to be tremendous pedaling going on over the next few hours. I doubt this is a status quo deal. Solutions will go down or come up. Be hard for the doubting Thomas's to ignore another few runs of .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm pretty confident I'm 1-2 down this way but up toward the pike I agree it's more tenuous. and compared to the previous two events, that will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I have no idea how it's been performing but one can think it at least has some validity RAP is historically too far NW or "amped", especially out in the 12-18 hour range of its run. Maybe that's more in coastals, but it always seems to go a little nuts with the NWward precip. I know this because I'm often on the NW side of our regional storms and it has let me down a lot, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I have no idea how it's been performing but one can think it at least has some validity without even looking I'm guessing it's way north and west, the RAP has a bad NW bias beyond 12 hours..the one thing I have noticed with the HRRR so far is it's very slow with the precip shield through 12z almost on the NAM's timing which is surprising to me since the NAM is almost always too slow on start time, if it's right my start times of 10 12 and 13z at DCA PHL NYC respectively are a goin down in FAlames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Going to be tremendous pedaling going on over the next few hours. I doubt this is a status quo deal. Solutions will go down or come up. Be hard for the doubting Thomas's to ignore another few runs of .25+ Hopefully that's true and a few more runs keeps showing that 0.25" or more for SE MA/RI... I sort of feel the status quo...I think you'll continue to see the American models juiced and the foreign ones a touch lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think messenger would be the one to ask If bastardi was a model he'd be the rap...or maybe the jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Just a general statement, there is no tone. I'm still on the record for not really feeling this event past the south coast, but I hope I'm wrong. I have the 1/97 vibe with this one where NW of a MQE-SFZ-HVN line will be smoking subsidence exhaust...but I hope its about 50 miles NW of it. I could see this being decent for many or a pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 without even looking I'm guessing it's way north and west, the RAP has a bad NW bias beyond 12 hours..the one thing I have noticed with the HRRR so far is it's very slow with the precip shield through 12z almost on the NAM's timing which is surprising to me since the NAM is almost always too slow on start time Yes the RAP certainly has a NW bias. Too bad because of this run were true, inches per hour lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 If bastardi was a model he'd be the rap...or maybe the jma It's nice to know the RAP has a NW bias....since it takes the meso band over my casa that makes sense it's kinda like the Anti-Nogaps but in a short range POS version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I have the 1/97 vibe with this one where NW of a MQE-SFZ-HVN line will be smoking subsidence exhaust...but I hope its about 50 miles NW of it. I could see this being decent for many or a pretty meh. This is the first thing that came to mind which is why I threw that date out earlier. There was like 10" I fluff in Brockton on a west wind lol. I had no idea how this happened at the time. It actually started out similar to how this will start. A finger of snow over Kentucky that evening. S+ when I got up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I don't know.. To me this is one of the easier forecasts we've had in awhile. Certainly easier than the last few mixed events. The only real difficulty is does the meaningful snow get north of the pike or not . At least IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 There is definitely bust potential in the positive direction, but everyone should understand that there is certianly bust potential in the negative direction too due to subsidence and low level dry air draining from the NW. cannot overly stress these points imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Maybe it's me and I'm worried it could be more srn coastal areas or offshore. But this won't be as widespread as models have IMO. I don't see much, north of the heavier echoes thanks to frontogenic exhaust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 RAP is historically too far NW or "amped", especially out in the 12-18 hour range of its run. without even looking I'm guessing it's way north and west, the RAP has a bad NW bias beyond 12 hours.. Glad I'm not the only one who has that opinion, haha. In general it seems useless beyond 12 hours anyway though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yes the RAP certainly has a NW bias. Too bad because of this run were true, inches per hour lol. Not to be weenie---but there's been enough shift NW that it should be dismissed entirely. If there's no other reason coming through the upcoming models to support it, I'd summarily toss. We'll know soon enough. I do think Pickles' joke of this coming so far north that it changes James to rain was priceless. Or was it HubbDave's...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You can only hope the RAP is right. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Maybe it's me and I'm worried it could be more srn coastal areas or offshore. But this won't be as widespread as models have IMO. I don't see much, north of the heavier echoes thanks to frontogenic exhaust. that's where i'm at as well. i could see the precip shield looking good to the SW then turning quite ugly as it comes across SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Maybe it's me and I'm worried it could be more srn coastal areas or offshore. But this won't be as widespread as models have IMO. I don't see much, north of the heavier echoes thanks to frontogenic exhaust. I can tell you this much after living in the NYC area for 20 years, whenever models show the heavy bands running from off SE NJ to Cape Cod it seems to verify on the nose every time no idea why but it just does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I don't know.. To me this is one of the easier forecasts we've had in awhile. Certainly easier than the last few mixed events. The only real difficulty is does the meaningful snow get north of the pike or not . At least IMO One might also consider whether it gets north of a GON-HYA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 PHI under a winter storm warning now. It's a Philly kind of week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Not to be weenie---but there's been enough shift NW that it should be dismissed entirely. If there's no other reason coming through the upcoming models to support it, I'd summarily toss. We'll know soon enough. I do think Pickles' joke of this coming so far north that it changes James to rain was priceless. Or was it HubbDave's...... You'll probably get some snow, oh Queen of Quantatative Precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Not to be weenie---but there's been enough shift NW that it should be dismissed entirely. If there's no other reason coming through the upcoming models to support it, I'd summarily toss. We'll know soon enough. I do think Pickles' joke of this coming so far north that it changes James to rain was priceless. Or was it HubbDave's...... You'll probably get some snow, oh Queen of Quantatative Precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You can only hope the RAP is right. Jesus. lol it has snow up to ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You can only hope the RAP is right. Jesus. Looks impressive on the wv loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You can only hope the RAP is right. Jesus. Is this the model that the TV stations use for the computer generated radar? If so, it could scare the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It's nice to know the RAP has a NW bias....since it takes the meso band over my casa that makes sense it's kinda like the Anti-Nogaps but in a short range POS version. Rap has a bias of being terrible outside of 3-6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Not to be weenie---but there's been enough shift NW that it should be dismissed entirely. If there's no other reason coming through the upcoming models to support it, I'd summarily toss. We'll know soon enough. I do think Pickles' joke of this coming so far north that it changes James to rain was priceless. Or was it HubbDave's...... I don't play that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 RAP looks decent http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=23&fhour=18¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false … You might want to revisit that, lower levels are torched on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You can only hope the RAP is right. Jesus. The only time I remember the RAP scoring a huge coup was the morning of 1/26/11...remember when all the models finally shoved that event SE and we were going to get 1-3/2-4? Then the RAP that morning starting giving us monster bands into SNE and at first we were thinking it was just being vintage RUC/RAP outside of about 8 hours...but then it never really backed down, and the 18z models all started coming on board and then finally the water vapor and radar were unmistakable by 6-7pm. That was a wild day that started with a NW RUC run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.