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December 10th/11th winter storm threat

jamesnichols1989

By jamesnichols1989,
in New England

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

a popular hated met going for some 4-8" amounts in NW VA, MD, SE PA.

LOL

 

well a band is gonna RIP from DC to BALT to SE PA to SW NJ to Philly between 7am and Noon. So it is difficult to forecast accums when a meso band Is prog'd.

 

I mean someone will probably see 6-7 inches in SE PA imo.

 

Perhaps backing away from Traditional forecast maps " bc simple numbers/accum " is not prudent in this set up (if your looking for accuracy)

 

 and just highlighting an area and saying "highly variable but where banding sets up 6-8 inches is possible....2-3 outside banding WRT the areas mentioned, and then just having a area where banding seems most likely on a map that is side by side the other map.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted

Some serious wishcasting in here, I'm waiting for someone to post the pressure tendency maps to show that the storm is reforming off the Carolina coast.

Nobody is wish casting, just going over possibilities. Distinct difference. There's a difference between hoping and posting stuff that is completely irrelevant and egregious

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

LOL

 

well a band is gonna RIP from DC to BALT to SE PA to SW NJ to Philly between 7am and Noon. So it is difficult to forecast accums when a meso band Is prog'd.

 

I mean someone will probably see 6-7 inches in SE PA imo.

 

Perhaps backing away from Traditional forecast maps " bc simple numbers/accum " is not prudent in this set up (if your looking for accuracy)

 

 and just highlighting an area and saying "highly variable but where banding sets up 6-8 inches is possible....2-3 outside banding WRT the areas mentioned, and then just having a area where banding seems most likely on a map that is side by side the other map.

 

agree.

 

I would like to see professionals trending away from forecasting snowfall amount maps in general... and steer towards impact zoning instead.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

No, which is why this month will begin to take on a frustrating appeal should the weekend deal heavily taint.

Ahh

I misunderstood. It is still very early in the game. These little puissant systems are not even the appetizers.

Although someone will get a plate full of little weenies with toothpicks in them Tuesday

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

FWIW NWS Springfield, MO  has increased amounts where the snow is breaking out there

 

this thing is just getting started

 

Best confidence tomorrow am is the freakin Mid-Atlantic.  Dc to Balt to SE PA to SW NJ looks to get a heavy band rip thru for a couple hours

 

Phil it's like your posting from MPM's location by your tone on this. Don't get me wrong....I know nothing is a guarantee with this....but you of all people are in a good spot for this...no?

 

What is your biggest caution flag......I mean you look good for 2 inches of snow....perhaps double that if things work out....you seem almost like you were more pump'd for OES flurries  last week.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted

This season is going to start to get frustrating if I get brushed tmw, and the mid levels fly west again next wknd....lol

Yeah we've had like 5 chances for snow down here and I have a melted 1/2 inch to show for it. I think there is going to be some mini meltdowns here tomorrow if the area that's already been outlined doesn't produce something at least

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

If someone is expecting a "super band" I would probably roll back your enthusiasm 

 

probably roll back your pessimism.

 

*/TUESDAY...

SNOW ANTICIPATED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS-TURNPIKE AS AN

UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRAGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS COLDER AIR

SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS...THE ENTIRE COLUMN

IS BELOW-FREEZING WITH THICKNESSES BELOW THEIR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE-H85 WINDS ALLOW FOR UNDERCUTTING LOW-LEVEL

COLD AIR ADVECTION. YET AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW BELOW H925 IS SOUTHERLY

ONSHORE SO THERE IS SOME PLAUSIBILITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH-

SHORE OF WARMING ABOVE-FREEZING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE SUBTLE

HINTS OF LOW-LEVELS BECOMING DRY-ADIABATIC ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK

INSTABILITY /YET NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOT EXCEEDING 0.1 FOR

ANY AREA/.

ALOFT...EXPECTING STRONG- AND DEEP-LIFTING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC

GROWTH ZONE REGION PER THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL

JET /+ 2 SD/ AND MAIN VORTMAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROADER TROUGHING

REGIME SWEEPING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE STRONGEST

LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS MODELED TO STRETCH ACROSS

AN AREA IN PROXIMITY TO NEW YORK CITY TO BOSTON. THIS ALSO INVOKES

NORTHEASTERLY ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE BETTER SUB-TROPICAL BRANCH

EXTENDING FROM THE GULF NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE OVERALL OUTCOME IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR MESOSCALE BANDING OF

SNOW SOMEWHERE IN PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTH-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND

COLLOCATED WITH THE STRONG FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE

REGION. EVALUATING THE DYNAMICS ABOVE...THERE IS A GOOD INDICATION

OF BANDED FRONTOGENESIS AROUND H600-650 COLLOCATED WITH NEGATIVE

EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY /EPV/ BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT

LOCATION OF THIS BAND. OBVIOUSLY ANY WOBBLE IN THE BAND WOULD RESULT

IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE SURFACE. NEVERTHELESS CONFIDENCE IS

GAINED PER THE 15Z SREF WITH AROUND 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 1-INCH

ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST. 4-INCH AMOUNT PROBABILITIES ARE NON-EXISTENT

BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

SO FOR THE FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH SREF/WRF-ARW/ECMWF

SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION WHICH ARE SUCCINCT WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS

ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST. EXPECTING ALL SNOW WITH ICE PRESENT WITHIN

THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE

COASTLINES AT TIMES THOUGH SHOULD NOT BE THE CASE IF IT IS SNOWING

MODERATELY. WILL CONCENTRATE THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG

THE SOUTH-SHORE /LIKELY POPS/ KEEPING ANY ACCUMULATION ALONG AND

NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE VERY LIGHT /CHANCE TO SLIGHT

CHANCE POPS/. EXPECTING A SCRUNCHED PRECIPITATION EVENT.

AS FOR THE SNOW-BANDING...THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER MODEL WEIGHT

OF THE BAND TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-COAST...THOUGH THE

15Z SREF HAS DRAGGED THE PRECIPITATION MEAN NORTH COMPARED TO THE

PRIOR 9Z RUN. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND AS

MENTIONED EARLIER...A SLIGHT WOBBLE IN THE BAND WOULD RESULT IN

SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES AT THE SURFACE.

THUS WITH REGARDS TO STATEMENTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ADVISORY DUE

TO THE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE

POTENTIALLY SNOW-BANDING. A BROAD-SCALE 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR

THE SOUTH-COAST NORTH TO THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE...BUT IF MESO-

SCALE BANDING WERE TO TAKE PLACE...WE COULD BE TALKING UP TO 6

INCHES /AGAIN MAINLY FOCUSING ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST INCLUDING THE

CAPE AND ISLANDS/. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING A TRACE UP TO AN INCH...WITH

VERY LITTLE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1:10 TO 1:12 WITH SUB-FREEZING

TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND THE UPPER-20S FOR THE INTERIOR. HIGHS

AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-30S ELSEWHERE.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

Pretty much par for the course at this stage for your location, its only December 9th. You have had an outside chance at best in Taunton for much more than a 1/2 inch.

 

Yeah we've had like 5 chances for snow down here and I have a melted 1/2 inch to show for it. I think there is going to be some mini meltdowns here tomorrow if the area that's already been outlined doesn't produce something at least

Do

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah we've had like 5 chances for snow down here and I have a melted 1/2 inch to show for it. I think there is going to be some mini meltdowns here tomorrow if the area that's already been outlined doesn't produce something at least

 

 

We might have to revive the weenie-tag from its grave if that happens. :lol:

 

 

People should know there's a pretty reasonable chance we don't get much of anything tomorrow.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted

Pretty much par for the course at this stage for your location, its only December 9th. You have had an outside chance at best in Taunton for much more than a 1/2 inch.

Do

Oh I know, that's why I'm out of here as soon as college ends haha. Well partially anyway.

It takes a whole different course when there have been chances that fizzle out, takes a little wind out of the sails

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

FWIW NWS Springfield, MO  has increased amounts where the snow is breaking out there

 

this thing is just getting started

 

Best confidence tomorrow am is the freakin Mid-Atlantic.  Dc to Balt to SE PA to SW NJ looks to get a heavy band rip thru for a couple hours

 

Phil it's like your posting from MPM's location by your tone on this. Don't get me wrong....I know nothing is a guarantee with this....but you of all people are in a good spot for this...no?

 

What is your biggest caution flag......I mean you look good for 2 inches of snow....perhaps double that if things work out....you seem almost like you were more pump'd for OES flurries  last week.

no i'm looking forward to the snow, no doubt.

 

i just get the feeling that people see this busting in a positive direction, maybe based on what happened in the MA yesterday i feel like...and it's just an apples and oranges comparison. 

 

that's all. 

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