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December 10th/11th winter storm threat


jamesnichols1989

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Yeah well if you want to be extremely precise, it was probably 5 miles SE of the 12z run. :lol:

 

 

But the general theme was that it basically maintained its status as a pretty far NW outlier amongst guidance right now. Nothing notable enough in this run to consider it a cave to other guidance. 00z runs should be interesting.

Winter cancel! Should be a good event but i'll be surprised if the GFS doesn't move towards consensus. 1-3 or 2-4 seems reasonable in this area for now.

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The banding on the GFS is alarming. It will rip where that sets up.

 

I agree, lift is intense in the snow growth zone.  NWS BOS is really conservative but say 6" is possible in any banding that can develop.  EURO is a red flag, but not a major one to say this is coming south, actually both the NAM and GFS would support a more organized surface low focusing banding along the South Coast of New England.  Something to watch in the overall 00z runs.

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GFS has such an intense amount of lift in the snow growth zone, omega is around 30 units.  Some of the strongest banding signals you will receive in such a situation.  Best lift is between 500-600mb which is from lift within PVA at 500mb as shortwave roams through the region. Something typical in an intense nor'easter.  Wherever that band sets up someone could easily see 6-12" no doubt.  THis is like PHL yesterday.

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Looks like 0.10" to the NH/MA border and 0.25" runs from LI to MVY.

 

Yeah, but what about the MA/VT border where it really counts?  :) 

GFS has such an intense amount of lift in the snow growth zone, omega is around 30 units.  Some of the strongest banding signals you will receive in such a situation.  Best lift is between 500-600mb which is from lift within PVA at 500mb as shortwave roams through the region. Something typical in an intense nor'easter.  Wherever that band sets up someone could easily see 6-12" no doubt.  THis is like PHL yesterday.

 

Pete shocks everyone........

 

Seriously though, this will be fun to see some areas cash in relatively well and others nearby with much more modest amounts.

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a big lol if this turns into coastal New England's smaller version of the Feb '06 NYC KU. Not saying this has KU potential. but i remember mets calling for a general 3-6" hours before the super band got going.

 

that's a pipe dream and you know that, but with a meso band you never know.  the polar disturbance looks more southeast and the sub tropical disturbance looks more south, based off the 6h progs of the NAM 18z run at h5.

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that's a pipe dream and you know that, but with a meso band you never know.  the polar disturbance looks more southeast and the sub tropical disturbance looks more south, based off the 6h progs of the NAM 18z run at h5.

 

what I mean is...a mini-bust. tv mets are 1-3" generally. get the super band to set up in your backyard, and we could see 6-8" amounts.

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