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December 10th/11th winter storm threat


jamesnichols1989

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A 20 mile shift that models may miss could mean the difference between a couple inches and like 6+...... That band looks powerful

 

I would think there will be a band similar to what went through parts of PA/NJ yesterday but the question is where?  There are definitely factors in placer that could argue 6''+ across a swath of area.  

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I would think there will be a band similar to what went through parts of PA/NJ yesterday but the question is where? There are definitely factors in placer that could argue 6''+ across a swath of area.

Exactly, and more than likely it won't be in the place the models have it, but which direction is it, and how much does it move?

Pretty touch and go, I think if I had to make a call is say 2-4 south and east of the pike. However depending on that band all bets are off.

As we saw yesterday, some came away with close too a foot, and the rates were also impressive.

I don't know much about snow growth, as I'm just trying to absorb info. But from what I've seen, people have been saying it should be excellent.

Personally I think 1-2 is a little low

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Exactly, and more than likely it won't be in the place the models have it, but which direction is it, and how much does it move?

Pretty touch and go, I think if I had to make a call is say 2-4 south and east of the pike. However depending on that band all bets are off.

As we saw yesterday, some came away with close too a foot, and the rates were also impressive.

I don't know much about snow growth, as I'm just trying to absorb info. But from what I've seen, people have been saying it should be excellent.

Personally I think 1-2 is a little low

 

Looking at some bufkit profiles, snowgrowth is definitely much more impressive than what it was for last night .  Models also show some pretty strong lift, strong VV's, and some hints of instability.  

 

Right now I would actually say the southern half of CT would stand the best chance at seeing 6"+.  

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GFS came a little south, winter is over.

looks just a smidge south to me, clearly indicative of a terrible winter.

 

 

Yeah well if you want to be extremely precise, it was probably 5 miles SE of the 12z run. :lol:

 

 

But the general theme was that it basically maintained its status as a pretty far NW outlier amongst guidance right now. Nothing notable enough in this run to consider it a cave to other guidance. 00z runs should be interesting.

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Yeah well if you want to be extremely precise, it was probably 5 miles SE of the 12z run. :lol:

But the general theme was that it basically maintained its status as a pretty far NW outlier amongst guidance right now. Nothing notable enough in this run to consider it a cave to other guidance. 00z runs should be interesting.

Pretty interesting that the model that had this first I believe held serve with the really wet run. At least leaves the door open for a more amplified solution
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Looking at some bufkit profiles, snowgrowth is definitely much more impressive than what it was for last night . Models also show some pretty strong lift, strong VV's, and some hints of instability.

Right now I would actually say the southern half of CT would stand the best chance at seeing 6"+.

I agree, but like we discussed 20 or 30 miles puts a lot more posters in here in the game. I don't think everyone is screwed without the band though

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GFS QPF virtually the same around here at around .5".  NAM cut back from about .38 to .27.

 

Any recommendations for good sites to view dual pol radar data?  Considering renewing weathertap, but if there are good free sites, I'd check that out first.

 

weather.cod.edu is really good

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