Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nice snowy day tomorrow, deep winter follows with Windex, Arctic cold and maybe a coastal. Good job James sniffing this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This is true but I haven't really talked about QPF at all. My only real question is does the best band set up towards you Bob and Ginxy or further south towards me. As long as we don't see a bust to the SE of the main shield I don't think anyone in that area is going to have trouble getting to 1-3". You can fart and get 1-3 because the snow growth should be good. Part of me also thinks the euro may be too far NW, but it really will be a nowcast deal. I guess my advice is to understand the consequences here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 And once again preceeding a snow event the 12Z SPC WRF decides to not run, I know it has plenty of days where its 12Z run does not come out but always seems to be before significant events Ha ha, yup - Reminds me of the weather lab at UML back in my college days. We actually did a correlation study on the frequency of product outages wrt to weather events and found that there was indeed a negative correlation. Storm is positive in probability, the products that the collective Meteorological community needs to review had a negative probability of succeeding delivery. ...Creepy actually... Back in those days it was DIFAX charts (AVN/MRF) Then our Prof made the salient point, which made a good deal of sense. In those days networks were less robust, so if everyone pounded the circuits for the updates during storm times, it probably caused huge delays. But that shouldn't be the case this day and age... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Man since they upgraded the Euro its having 3-7 day issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nice snowy day tomorrow, deep winter follows with Windex, Arctic cold and maybe a coastal. Good job James sniffing this one out. Good call on the WINDEX potential, looks intriguing with a strong SWly flow ahead of the trough axis to push some lake moisture out into the flow before the arctic boundary. I'll probably get more snow this week from the CAA, WINDEX potential and weak disturbances that no one pays attention to, than the big ticket systems. Usually works that way, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Back to 12/24/98: That pns reporting 0.4 for BOS is wrong. I'm pretty sure they got. 6+. I had about 9. Bit it was 12/23 or are we talking different systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You can fart and get 1-3 because the snow growth should be good. Part of me also thinks the euro may be too far NW, but it really will be a nowcast deal. I guess my advice is to understand the consequences here. emotionally or meteorologically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Back to 12/24/98: That pna reporting 0.4 for BOS is wrong. I'm pretty sure they got. 6+. I had about 9. Bit it was 12/23 or are we talking different systems? Different systems. There was a huge cutoff just south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yesterday was a lot of posts saying this was an offshore deal. Glad that the discussion has now shifted to how far NW the good snow will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Man since they upgraded the Euro its having 3-7 day issues. Its 6-10 day issues seem worse...if the pattern is in any way conducive to a cutter it tries to blow cutters up all over the place in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Good call on the WINDEX potential, looks intriguing with a strong SWly flow ahead of the trough axis to push some lake moisture out into the flow before the arctic boundary. I'll probably get more snow this week from the CAA, WINDEX potential and weak disturbances that no one pays attention to, than the big ticket systems. Usually works that way, lol. That was Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Its 6-10 day issues seem worse...if the pattern is in any way conducive to a cutter it tries to blow cutters up all over the place in this range.anecdotally it's having issues. Will have to see how it ends up with the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For those people siding on the + side, it looks like this is a classic frontogenetic sloped band. The fact that 500mb velocities are high over SNE is scary. I don't care what QPF says...you will be smoked if that band is over your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For those people siding on the + side, it looks like this is a classic frontogenetic sloped band. The fact that 500mb velocities are high over SNE is scary. I don't care what QPF says...you will be smoked if that band is over your house. Smoked in a good way or a bad? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Smoked in a good way or a bad? Lol good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For those people siding on the + side, it looks like this is a classic frontogenetic sloped band. The fact that 500mb velocities are high over SNE is scary. I don't care what QPF says...you will be smoked if that band is over your house. is there likely do be a couple fronto bands setting up.........say like one along nyc to S coast then potentially another more NW of that from a different level of forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 good. meh , snow is over-rated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For those people siding on the + side, it looks like this is a classic frontogenetic sloped band. The fact that 500mb velocities are high over SNE is scary. I don't care what QPF says...you will be smoked if that band is over your house. Let's park it right here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 is there likely do be a couple fronto bands setting up.........say like one along nyc to S coast then potentially another more NW of that from a different level of forcing No I see it as one main band...probably a few stronger mesobands, but I don't think this is a deal with two separate bands like Dec 26, 2010 with one in ern MA and the other by the Berks. BTV WRF likes central CT to PYM and esp SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'll take the South Coast band, let's get smoked, I like that idea. Also the NWS Taunton morning AFD discusses potential OES on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 meh , snow is over-rated The "snow" today was crap. The stuff in Philly was great. Not all snow is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 No I see it as one main band...probably a few stronger mesobands, but I don't think this is a deal with two separate bands like Dec 26, 2010 with one in ern MA and the other by the Berks. BTV WRF likes central CT to PYM and esp SE. what I meant to describe is wether there is a shot at another meso band further N from the main band that may set up near the S.coast. when u mentioned 500mb velocity's, i was wondering if there was a couple different areas of lift, i could have just mis-"guessed" what you were referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Strong to potent lift on the 12z GFS with it in half of the snow growth zone, so its a little dicey with temps falling back into the upper 20s and lower 30s along the coast. With 850mb temps dropping to near -8C don't see why we can't get great ratios and snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 15z srefs don't seem all that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 15z srefs don't seem all that impressive. Compared to 9z its a bit wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Compared to 9z its a bit wetter Yup. Spread is just tighter as you would expect as you close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yup. Spread is just tighter as you would expect as you close in. Same general area? You might do well in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Same general area? You might do well in this Yeah, northern precip fringe on the SREFs has come S quite a bit but still hits the southern portion of SNE pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z NAM has cut back some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NAM looks more like euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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