RedSky Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z ecm is 1" N&W to 3" SE standard issue car topper event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 6:08 PM, famartin said: 3 to 6 inches seems like a reasonable forecast at this time for the Trenton area... hopefully no screwy banding messes that up. Agreed. I do think banding will result in a lot of areas seeing 1-3" while others see 4-8". Just have a feeling this might be a hit or miss event for many. I could see that band setting up along and just NW of I-95. There's still a lot of time to pinpoint where that band sets up. The next few NAM runs should be telling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For NW Chester County the Wxsim with 12z GFS and NAM hassnow arriving by 7am temp at 25.3Heavy Snow by 10am temp 28.1Snow winds down by 4pm with 5" to 7" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think, just with the trajectory of the moisture, I think NJ will do best here. I think this storm, once again, is going to surprise a lot of people, I think someone who gets in on that mesoscale band will get 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Any reason why my WFO in Mt Holly has no WWA issued yet? Not hating, just want to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 8:43 PM, Absolute Humidity said: Any reason why my WFO in Mt Holly has no WWA issued yet? Not hating, just want to know. Package is just now being issued, but looks like WSW's are going up http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/ZFPPHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 8:43 PM, Absolute Humidity said: Any reason why my WFO in Mt Holly has no WWA issued yet? Not hating, just want to know.Tough forecast. Perhaps they are weighing their options ie watch vs wwa. Personally I'd issue a watch to be safe and warn the public....can always downgrade. Most folks don't take a wwa too seriously and if banding sets up there could be 1-2" / hr rates for a time. Really rough call....I don't envy mt holly right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 8:49 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Tough forecast. Perhaps they are weighing their options ie watch vs wwa. Personally I'd issue a watch to be safe and warn the public....can always downgrade. Most dolks don't take a wwa too seriously and if banding sets up there coild be 1-2" / hr rates for a time. Really rough call....I don't envy mt holly right niw. Decisions are made, see link http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/ZFPPHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Thanks ray....good call imho, great minds think alike lol. In the 3-5" range here, close to my thinking of 3-6" :-p Not sure if those 8" lollis I went with will verify. Banding will determine this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 There's the official http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/WSWPHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 8:48 PM, famartin said: Package is just now being issued, but looks like WSW's are going up http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/ZFPPHI Thanks Ray, but I thought Mercer required 6" for a WSW - this states 3 - 5? And I don't understand the Western Monmouth Heat Island with WNW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 someone gave me a very sharp cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 8:58 PM, Absolute Humidity said: Thanks Ray, but I thought Mercer required 6" for a WSW - this states 3 - 5? And I don't understand the Western Monmouth Heat Island with WNW winds. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/images/12-hr-Snow-warni.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The Philly Snow Magnet. Snow map sharp cut off makes no sense. (I know I'm reading into it too much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm a little uncertain about Mercer too... maybe the AFD will explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah, Mercer does require 6". hmmmmm........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 9:11 PM, famartin said: I'm a little uncertain about Mercer too... maybe the AFD will explain. I think this explains it... I think the wording just got grouped together with the 4"+ criteria counties. That's my best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 No matter, Both my County and Ray's point and click to 3 - 5". Will wait on AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z gfs is a bear...1-2"/hr for majority of event for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 9:41 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z gfs is a bear...1-2"/hr for majority of event for some Spits out around .5" of qpf for parts of SE PA. With some decent ratios during banding.....oh boy. Not saying its gonna happen, but looks like this might have the potential for some 6"+ lollis where the banding sets up. I like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 9:51 PM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Spits out around .7" of qpf for SE PA. With some decent ratios during banding.....oh boy. Not saying its gonna happen, but looks like this might have the potential for some 6"+ lollis where the banding sets up. I like the trend. Seems to be somewhat of a pattern this year. In bad years, totals go down as you get closer to the storm. In good years its the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 9:51 PM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Spits out around .7" of qpf for SE PA. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 9:58 PM, famartin said: ??? My bad, it looks more like .5-.6. I'm being lazy and using GFS surface snow depth off of instaweathermaps.com. I forgot to account for existing snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Text output: PHL: 0.48" ILG: 0.48"ABE: 0.42" RDG:0.45" PTW: 0.48" I don't think anyone gets even close to .7" of QPF on the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On 12/9/2013 at 10:04 PM, RowanBrandon said: Text output: PHL: 0.48" ILG: 0.48" ABE: 0.42" RDG:0.45" PTW: 0.48" I don't think anyone gets even close to .7" of QPF on the run. Yeah that was my bad. Won't happen again... Finals week has destroyed my brain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Currently 33.8 Is this the obs thread for this final round? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 0z GFS is a nice screwzone free hit for everybody in sepa 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Latest rap model hits the area with a general 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What a great start to winter, guys. Looking like a general 4-6" for everyone in the SE pa area. Hope everyone gets nailed! And it's only the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 On 12/10/2013 at 4:52 AM, jrodd321 said: What a great start to winter, guys. Looking like a general 4-6" for everyone in the SE pa area. Hope everyone gets nailed! And it's only the first week of December. Once upon a time, there was a great start to December, with 3 hits in one week. December 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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