dryslot Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z ECMWF ensembles look like it tracks the low over the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It means that the typical over-amplified UKMET ...isn't. Has to do with juggling bias types in the various models. If a model that is typical over-amplified comes in slightly suppressed, that should be an intriguing aspect. In this case, it may signal less support for westerly positions. Likewise as devils advocate...when the usually suppressed NOGAPS is amped...it can lend support to the westward solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro ensembles amped up. Over the Cape. Colder than 00z though. I like the trend with the arctic boundary and high pressure. That's a big front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It means that the typical over-amplified UKMET ...isn't. Has to do with juggling bias types in the various models. If a model that is typical over-amplified comes in slightly suppressed, that should be an intriguing aspect. In this case, it may signal less support for westerly positions. Thanks for explaining, John--I couldn't follow the initial statement. Euro ensembles amped up. Over the Cape. I am okay with this. Is that similar placement to the amped GFS ensembles as well? It's nice to see the multiple model support for an event. In another 24-48 hours, we may have some excited folks posting. 25.2/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Thew news keeps getting better and better the trends colder and colder..the track easter and easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Colder than 00z though. I like the trend with the arctic boundary and high pressure. That's a big front end thump. Yeah for sure...I just meant what they showed. That's an awesome high pressure placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 if there were just a little bit of kink in the flow to our NE to help slow the departure of surface HP and clog the flow a little - don't need a vince wilfork in the way, just need somebody to get an arm on him - that vort-max and that air mass would be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yeah for sure...I just meant what they showed. That's an awesome high pressure placement. When you have a 1040 high sitting smack over Montreal or just a bit N and -14C 850 temps 12 hours before the onset, it is going to be very difficult to get a lot of liquid precip out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Thew news keeps getting better and better the trends colder and colder..the track easter and easter Yeah it's good news that the ECM and GFS ensembles are remaining amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 When you have a 1040 high sitting smack over Montreal or just a bit N and -14C 850 temps 12 hours before the onset, it is going to be very difficult to get a lot of liquid precip out of that. Completely agree here, and also... we have a snow pack now, and these deep polar air mass are not going to be in any hurry to modify. A lot of these details are not really even in the granularity of a 130 hour outlook, but as a winter weather enthusiast you gotta like where things stand for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yeah it's good news that the ECM and GFS ensembles are remaining amped. Yeah, Seeing the 12z Euro ensembles were west of the 0z run and 4mb stronger then 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 When you have a 1040 high sitting smack over Montreal or just a bit N and -14C 850 temps 12 hours before the onset, it is going to be very difficult to get a lot of liquid precip out of that. That's why I like it....that's is not going to be easy to erode whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Likewise as devils advocate...when the usually suppressed NOGAPS is amped...it can lend support to the westward solutions. image.jpg Actually, the "suppressed" NOGAPs is why it has that solution, I'd argue. The reason being is that it was suppressed with the amount of leading polar high NNW of Maine, that is more heavily agreed upon by the other operational types -- supported by confluence leading... It's not have enough +PP in that region feeds (also) back on a warmer solution. It also allows more warmth to conveyor into the GL prior to, and that's why the low is dominant there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Freak trying to get this NW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 That's why I like it....that's is not going to be easy to erode whatsoever. The airmass has trended colder on the front side for like 3 straight ensemble runs. Which is typical of when we have an arctic high with that placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ens also have that 19th signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The airmass has trended colder on the front side for like 3 straight ensemble runs. Which is typical of when we have an arctic high with that placement. When I saw that location on the Op run, I was stoked. Maybe we can see it come in a bit stronger. Would be nice to get a Miller B with a side of southern stream juice. Feels like forever and a day since we've had one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The airmass has trended colder on the front side for like 3 straight ensemble runs. Which is typical of when we have an arctic high with that placement. Even the GFS is really, really cold in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro ensembles amped up. Over the Cape. Where can the ensembles be viewed or is it pay only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Freak trying to get this NW lol I'm with him for a bit on this one---don't want too much movement here lest I take a flying leap into my frozen pool. 24.8/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Thanks for explaining, John--I couldn't follow the initial statement. Yeah ... that was my bad. In standard English, "meridional" pertains to meridians, but in Met parlance it is used to describe flows that have more N-S character (think flow that crosses the meridians ). It was actually kind of a mistake on my part to refer to the UKMET as having an amplitude bias... It isn't so much the "amplitude" of it's S/W and L/W, its the meridional flow construct that it has a bias with. Important to remember, high amplitude waves do not always posses a lot of curvilinear form in the geopotential medium. In 1986, in the 2nd week of November, a flat wave with a 45 vort max careened off the NJ Coast in the wee hours of the morning, and induced bombogenesis in a progressive wave; much of the region wound up with warning snows, nearing 18" in SE Mass... Yet the isoheights showed only a mere dent when it was cutting through Ohio earlier the preceding afternoon. Thundersnow at Cleveland was hint that the sucker was one dynamic mo-fo' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Even the GFS is really, really cold in the boundary layer. Yeah I noticed that which is weird for that model. This is a legit mid-winter arctic airmass. If we can keep the high location fairly consistent, then its going to be a pretty major winter system for most of the region. Details on where snow/sleet/ZR location and duration to be determined later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Where can the ensembles be viewed or is it pay only? Well it's from a paysite, but you can see more primitive stuff here. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013121000!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Even the GFS is really, really cold in the boundary layer. You can see why though...look how that fresh supply of weenie air sags south like a lonesome hair follicle on Kevin's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You can see why though...look how that fresh supply of weenie air sags south like a lonesome hair follicle on Kevin's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm with him for a bit on this one---don't want too much movement here lest I take a flying leap into my frozen pool. 24.8/21 You know how the battle goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Well it's from a paysite, but you can see more primitive stuff here. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013121000!!/ Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I just love it when Tip talks dirty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You know how the battle goes lol tis the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 lol tis the season Some are just more discrete about it then others, But you can read the tea leaves, You and i know enough about synoptics that we can see what could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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