weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'd like to see H7 redevelop before entertaining the notion of 12"+...... 7-11". This cf is going to be epic....probably makes it to about my hood on the GFS/UK Not only that but this is just such a fast mover and the heaviest of the QPF is only overhead for a brief amount of time. Makes me real nervous about going widespread 8'+, however, there are alot of signals which suggest that is possible but the negatives against that are rather strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 no mention of feedback but: STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGEALOFT, THERE ARE SLIGHT DEPTH ISSUES WITH THE TWO SHORTWAVESDRIVING THIS SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD. THE 00Z NAM/12Z CANADIAN SHOWA DEEPER UPPER TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD, WHILE THE00Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PA/NY SUNDAYMORNING, THOUGH ITS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FARTHER DOWN THE TROUGH AXISAPPEAR TOO HIGH COMPARED TO THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THENAM IS KNOWN TO HAVE A STRONG BIAS ALOFT WITH SYSTEMS IN THEWESTERLIES, SO ITS SOLUTION -- AND THE CANADIAN BY EXTENSION --WILL BE CONSIDERED TOO WEAK. WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMETSPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE ALOFT WITH THE HEIGHT VALUES WITH THEMAIN TROUGH, AND THE THREE QUITE AGREEABLE WITH THE SURFACE LOWTRACKS THROUGH SUNDAY, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A 00Z GFS/12ZECMWF/12Z UKMET COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THESYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 thats a late phase, great for interior. cbb bomb for upstate NY. Most of the QPF in upstate NY is associated with the primary low. The heavier secondary precip is confined to new england. Moderate QPF falls just about everywhere, but I don't see high ratios outside of NNY and NNE. The good lift doesn't arrive until a warm nose is well established. The snow should still be pretty fluffy though. There also isn't really a ccb or any wraparound to speak of. Nevertheless, this has a chance to be the biggest snowstorm in 2 years for ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not only that but this is just such a fast mover and the heaviest of the QPF is only overhead for a brief amount of time. Makes me real nervous about going widespread 8'+, however, there are alot of signals which suggest that is possible but the negatives against that are rather strong.8+ could be tough to do down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Cmc also closere in but surprisingly snowy given track. I think the cold doesn't scour so easily at least not in lower levels away from the ocean. The CMC has one of the most finite grids, so it may just be picking up on the cold intensity - which is not getting the press it needs in this social media. We're New Englanders, folks! Since when does a fresh ARCTIC high just get blithely obliterated by a partial phase. Answer, almost never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Sounds like he's not ready to buy the suite but leaving the door open. Wasn't really denoting any type of change imo....has always left that door open all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wasn't really denoting any type of change imo....has always left that door open all along. It's almost getting a 12/16/07 appeal. Start with your socks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 8+ could be tough to do down there When talking 8''+ over a widespread area I think it could be difficult to do. It's just such a tough call right now b/c when dealing with totals like that over a widespread area you would at least like to see at least some sort of defined mid-level circulation but this system is rather absent of that. What we are relying on here is very intense lift, coupled with very intense frontogenesis along with great snowfall growth and ratios. While a setup like this can absolutely produce those types of totals over a widespread area it's not a sure bet, especially b/c this system will be moving so quickly and the best ingredients leading to heavier snow rates may only be brief (3-4 hour window) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's almost getting a 12/16/07 appeal. Start with your socks....Is that the disaster storm that caused the gridlock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Is that the disaster storm that caused the gridlock? It's predecessor, 12/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 no mention of feedback but: STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Which product is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Which product is that? WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Is that the disaster storm that caused the gridlock? No that was 12/13/07. 12/16/07 was to be a quick flip and even BOS got 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's almost getting a 12/16/07 appeal. Start with your socks.... #1 analog: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Which product is that? Model Diagnostic Discussion. Comes out about 1130, updates about 1230 and then the final is about 130 after they see the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Model Diagnostic Discussion. Comes out about 1130, updates about 1230 and then the final is about 130 after they see the Euro. Bookmarked, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is definitely setting up to be a December 16th, 2007 Lite redux. I thought I was getting 2 or 3 and got 10. The Best surprise storm of my life on the postive side (Christmas of 2002 storm was the biggest Negative surprise weeks after I began officially keeping Snow stats too!) This could be more of expecting 3-6 and get 10-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 #1 analog: OK I didn't think I was making THAT good of a Prediction!! Hahaha wow i'm proud. #1 analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Harv just left by saying it's possible he'll have to shift all those lines north as a strong ocean wind lowers accumulations. He lost that debate with me back in 2003, Dec 5, when fresh polar-arctic high contributed and forced the CF to lock SE of Brockton near the Canal. No, not going to happen folks. This air mass will win, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So I take it if there is any warming there won't really be any freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12/15/07 I rememeber even down in NYC we saw a 5-6 hour period FZRAPL and PL and we thought we'd be all rain...the funny thing is the 36 hour CIPS panel has 12/5/02 in there as well, also 12/14/03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So I take it if there is any warming there won't really be any freezing rain? I doubt you'll see anything other than snow. But if mids warm and low levels stay frigid zr can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Any mixing or changeover (outside of the coast) would probably happen more towards the end of the event and when much of the QPF has already fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12/15/07 I rememeber even down in NYC we saw a 5-6 hour period FZRAPL and PL and we thought we'd be all rain...the funny thing is the 36 hour CIPS panel has 12/5/02 in there as well, also 12/14/03 12/14/03 has a lot of similarities..though this airmass is definitely colder. I have noticed that the airmass in this one will be on the colder side of the analogs...both in the low levels and mid-levels. 12/16/07 was a really cold airmass, though still not even quite as cold as the one progged for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Part II is open for business.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Should leave this one open until the 0z euro is out. Then start fresh pre 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Another hr for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Another hr for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gonna have to set my alarm to chk and then go back to bed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gonna have to set my alarm to chk and then go back to bed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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