Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If it does track that far west - or further it'll certainly be a victory for the ensembles that were west most of the time. Looked to me like the RGEM wanted to go even further west as we are now gradually heading back to the solutions of a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The guidance is all trending way wetter coming out of the south with this system. It's something that isn't surprising in itself (I had thought it would), but the magnitude is something I didn't quite expect. There is a ton of moisture coming out of the south on this now. To quote my girlfriend when I was in HS "Don't say that unless you mean it". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Who real gives a shtzl if it has an H or an L. I look outside now and I can see the blue hued font H painted across the sky. C'mon man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We're going to have to watch the convection....because its affecting all of the 00z suite right now. Its real coming out of the south, but filtering out the crap from the real stuff is the hard part. Watch the vortmax between 24 and 30 hours on the GFS run over the southern plains (from OK to MO) It just explodes out of nowhere and it affects the whole height field downstream. I know. I don't know what to think because the latent heat release is real, but that seemed a little Spurious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We're going to have to watch the convection....because its affecting all of the 00z suite right now. Its real coming out of the south, but filtering out the crap from the real stuff is the hard part. Watch the vortmax between 24 and 30 hours on the GFS run over the southern plains (from OK to MO) It just explodes out of nowhere and it affects the whole height field downstream. Absolutely. Classic feedback maybe as a 500mb feature pops up alongside the convection right over MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 gfs close to phasing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I dont know how funny it would be if the wacky nam NW solution from yesterday was onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 To quote my girlfriend when I was in HS "Don't say that unless you mean it". That is an E.F. Hutton statement. You can take that to the bank. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Uncle is late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That is an E.F. Hutton statement. You can take that to the bank. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 thats a late phase, great for interior. cbb bomb for upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I know. I don't know what to think because the latent heat release is real, but that seemed a little Spurious. Yeah just a tad. The high has also trended stronger in addition to the mositure going nuts over the past 12 hours. So there is going to be something pretty hellecious for a time when those collide. Its trending into something stronger...even trying to get the mid-level centers redeveloping. The hard part is figuring out how much is overdone versus real from convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If it does track that far west - or further it'll certainly be a victory for the ensembles that were west most of the time. Looked to me like the RGEM wanted to go even further west as we are now gradually heading back to the solutions of a few days ago. They ensembles pretty much have been very consistent over the last couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 They missed it, dropped to 11, record was 10,going back up now Dipped to 16 here earlier. Up to 22 now that the breeze has picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That's a weird s/w. It just blows up and then gets shredded lol. That explosive development shoves the low into the DC area. The whole thing is kind of weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Does anyone care if I start a new thread as 'part 2' sort of title ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Great track for CNE Not for CNE qpf huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Uncle is late. and he prob should click X on current gfs run. dont look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The thing about it being potentially feedback is as Scott said the heat release is real. But it does kind of stick out like a sore thumb and the resultant height fields help to pop the low perhaps further north and faster than it may do. Then again....we aren't going to know it seems until the storms form as is usually the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The thermal gradient looks insane on the gfs lol...I know its not this forum's area but 40s/50s on Long Island ..upper 20s in NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Does anyone care if I start a new thread as 'part 2' sort of title ? after this run...good idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 and he prob should click X on current gfs run. dont look. You know what uncle is here right?....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah just a tad. The high has also trended stronger in addition to the mositure going nuts over the past 12 hours. So there is going to be something pretty hellecious for a time when those collide. Its trending into something stronger...even trying to get the mid-level centers redeveloping. The hard part is figuring out how much is overdone versus real from convection. It's a headscratcher lol. I guess we'll see what the rest of the guidance does. I'm sure this sounds like an IMBY comment to some, but I question that solution despite knowing feedback can be real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gfs would obviously taint a lot of people verbatim but it might be worth it getting that severe front ender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Does anyone care if I start a new thread as 'part 2' sort of title ? The host has the honors. I have no objection, go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That's a weird s/w. It just blows up and then gets shredded lol. That explosive development shoves the low into the DC area. The whole thing is kind of weird. Scott isn't that the classic definition of feedback issues? We talk about it a lot off the coast when it's marginally defined. s/w's popping off adjacent to QPF maxes I thought was the clear threshold. To me this looks like 100% the case. Normally the Euro doesn't seem to be as prone to those issues, so I'm curious to see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gfs would obviously taint a lot of people verbatim but it might be worth it getting that severe front ender. Could all get washed away though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Bad karma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You know what uncle is here right?....lol. my b thought it was u lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You know what uncle is here right?....lol. Crazy uncle Hittin the scotch tonight? We'll see....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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