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December 14/15 winter storm threat


Typhoon Tip

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Lol, while I tend to agree I live so far in the northwest corner of TAN, I can pretty much throw a rock from here to Attleboro, which does better than me as well.

However I still think we have a good shot at >3, but who knows

Actually the western flank of taunton can sometimes be on the west side of a cf . Did u stay cold on Boxing Day. Im pretty sure that cf didnt get to norton but torched most of raynham

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Actually the western flank of taunton can sometimes be on the west side of a cf . Did u stay cold on Boxing Day. Im pretty sure that cf didnt get to norton but torched most of raynham

Bingo, I stayed all snow Boxing Day. Also last year on that storm a few days after Christmas, I stayed all snow here while the center of the city was pouring rain. Kind of cool actually.

Cold air in place, I think I stand a fighting chance of staying on the right side maybe

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summer storms can be good there tho.

 

Eh - sometimes.  Many times the convection dies down by the time it gets to this area.  The interaction with the marine layer and sea breeze really sucks the life out of severe thunderstorms, especially when they are coming in from then north and west of town.  We tend to get hit better when thunderstorms are moving northeast through the area.

Narragansett Bay really tends to "moderate" the weather, whether it's winter snows from this storm, or summer thunderstorms.

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If a secondary formed it just means more snow right? In addition to what was depicted there?

 

The secondary has pretty much been on all the models, The CMC has not got to the point where it has developed yet, So a lot of that precip would get transported further east, Its where the secondary goes from there that is the key

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How can anyone take seriously a model that mistakes a  Low for a High?!!   :axe:   

 

Nah, there's no mistaking there... Just follow the isobars.  That looks like the software that did the graphics sweet might have been off the mark and it picked a pixel that is low relative to a near-by max. 

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The guidance is all trending way wetter coming out of the south with this system. It's something that isn't surprising in itself (I had thought it would), but the magnitude is something I didn't quite expect. There is a ton of moisture coming out of the south on this now.

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The guidance is all trending way wetter coming out of the south with this system. It's something that isn't surprising in itself (I had thought it would), but the magnitude is something I didn't quite expect. There is a ton of moisture coming out of the south on this now.

 

GFS a tick NW

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We're going to have to watch the convection....because its affecting all of the 00z suite right now. Its real coming out of the south, but filtering out the crap from the real stuff is the hard part. Watch the vortmax between 24 and 30 hours on the GFS run over the southern plains (from OK to MO)

 

It just explodes out of nowhere and it affects the whole height field downstream.

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