weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 21Z srefs is mostly snow for a lot of us..almost all snow and juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'll just add that it appears the uber great snow growth we had been mentioning over the last day or so is declining (a bit). There's favorable soundings for it initially, but we've lost some of the midday Saturday snows. When the bulk of the precip comes in, the column has already warmed out of the max DGZ below 700mb. Whoever gets in on the 500-700mb banding will still get some fluffy delight, but I don't see much in the way of thick layers of mid-level -12C to -18C temps with lift in it right now. I'm not saying ratios will suck, just that the soundings don't look as ridiculous as they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This looks interesting.... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snowfcst/snow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This looks interesting.... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snowfcst/snow.pdf Yes. Wes Junker (usedtobe here) wrote that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'll just add that it appears the uber great snow growth we had been mentioning over the last day or so is declining (a bit). There's favorable soundings for it initially, but we've lost some of the midday Saturday snows. When the bulk of the precip comes in, the column has already warmed out of the max DGZ below 700mb. Whoever gets in on the 500-700mb banding will still get some fluffy delight, but I don't see much in the way of thick layers of mid-level -12C to -18C temps with lift in it right now. I'm not saying ratios will suck, just that the soundings don't look as ridiculous as they did. Berks are the area not 1" on the SREFs. Aside from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'll just add that it appears the uber great snow growth we had been mentioning over the last day or so is declining (a bit). There's favorable soundings for it initially, but we've lost some of the midday Saturday snows. When the bulk of the precip comes in, the column has already warmed out of the max DGZ below 700mb. Whoever gets in on the 500-700mb banding will still get some fluffy delight, but I don't see much in the way of thick layers of mid-level -12C to -18C temps with lift in it right now. I'm not saying ratios will suck, just that the soundings don't look as ridiculous as they did. It's close up here on the BTV and MPV coolwx graphics. Best lift is in the -10C to -16C type range it seems. But I could see how that decreases further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Slaps Kevin hard slide 7 of Wes's presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yea we have trended away from the long duration fluffy overunning stuff to more waa thump then the main course. It just seems like no matter the flow regime, systems still manage to wrap up over the past decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's close up here on the BTV and MPV coolwx graphics. Best lift is in the -10C to -16C type range it seems. But I could see how that decreases further SE. Yeah...I was more referring to SNE/CNE. I think OceanStWx posted those SREF SGZ maps and they favored NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah...I was more referring to SNE/CNE. I think OceanStWx posted those SREF SGZ maps and they favored NNE. If you look at the sounding for KASH at hour 60 it clearly shows what you were saying...definitely not as good as hr 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nam looks stronger through 21? Am I looking at that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Great link thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Aside from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? Was "interesting". She played well. LOL at the SREFs. Mean QPF is nuts! 1.25"+ for all of E MA/ RI/ LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nam looks stronger through 21? Am I looking at that right? Looks the same to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks the same to me. Yeah that's why I was asking lol - still trying to figure out to tell if something looks more amped or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM will probably over correct and take it over BOS..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 100% agree. We're always missing out on something by a few miles either to the northeast or northwest of our area when it comes to snowfall... lol. Ain't that the truth. I lived in Bristol for 5 years, and for the most part there seemed to be so many misses due to the location - surrounded by saltwater, and just overall a bad spot for snow. Did have a few good storms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That high is in a nice position in the nam. But nam is not reliable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 lol. Ain't that the truth. I lived in Bristol for 5 years, and for the most part there seemed to be so many misses due to the location - surrounded by saltwater, and just overall a bad spot for snow. Did have a few good storms though. summer storms can be good there tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 nam is all effed up...on ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BTV WRF 18z run has no real snow breaking out till like 10pm sat and its spotty still for most. It does have a few areas of "light snow during eve" but nothin wide spread , where the 12z did . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Another run, another iteration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM will probably over correct and take it over BOS..lol. It does have that NW look to it........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It does have that NW look to it........... It just might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Reminds me of the old ETA. The precursor to NAM. The last run before PD2 it cuts BOS qpf to 0.5. 27.1 inches later...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 nam is all effed up...on ewall.NAM has hit the sauce again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It just might. Oh it will, Unless it shats the bed when it gets to this lat like 18z did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 nam brings sucks in waves/convection from cuba lol. edit: the bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 At 51 a bit stronger and a bit further tucked in maybe close to 18z gfs we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Another run, another iteration. Way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.