DomNH Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What is the time frame or does that not matter? It just says 54hr GFS, valid 0z but no rage. Is there a specific moment in time that chart is dealing with? Yeah I think that's the 00z Sunday sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can anyone help me interpret this? That's a blonde about 5'9" 38-24-36. It's extreme porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDEQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wdtb.noaa.gov%2Fcourses%2Fwinterawoc%2Fdocuments%2Fcolor_PDFs%2FIC652.pdf&ei=n2CqUoX2ENHesASt44KYCA&usg=AFQjCNHktvm9OJpFarde0XOV75g0V_JNYg&sig2=50x-2EZWPCd7UAh5r6TOdA Thanks - taking a look at it now and definitely will be a bookmark lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So the saturation is represented by the dew point being in line with the temperature? Here is one important thing that a sounding cannot directly tell you. You need lift through that layer in order to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Here is one important thing that a sounding cannot directly tell you. You need lift through that layer in order to get snow. Lift is the same as vertical vorticity? Is that seen at H7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I've always thought soundings were a bit overrated. Important yes, but more to it than that. I know some really rely on them though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Would this indicate that the lower levels are not saturated but are dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I've always thought soundings were a bit overrated. Important yes, but more to it than that. I know some really rely on them though Huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lift is the same as vertical vorticity? Is that seen at H7? This is close to ASH...upward lift here is negative omega. The greater the negative value the more upward motion. Match up your best omega with the same pressure levels of your sounding and then find the temperatures in that layer of the atmosphere. If it's saturated and in the -12C to -18C temp zone you'll maximize your dendritic crystal growth. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MA&stn=KLWM&model=gfs&time=current&field=omeg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lift is the same as vertical vorticity? Is that seen at H7? Vertical Velocity.. This is a quick way to look where the lift is centered. This is for KCON... Lift is centered 500-600mb. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NH&stn=KCON&model=gfs&time=current&field=omeg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Would this indicate that the lower levels are not saturated but are dry? Correct. If you view the 6hr QPF at 54hr (the 48-54hr range) you'll see there's little precip that makes it to the ground. The column is saturating from the top down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I like using BufKit for a more robust atmospheric profile. Cross-sections with personal tweeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 21z SREFs mean SLP over ACK. 24h mean QPF is 1" over just about all of SNE up into SNH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Huh LMAO!!! That reaction is about as nice/tame as you could have concerning such a statement! Our whole profession relies on soundings!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What Brian said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah that would be the concern, but I'm starting to think this one may not. With no blocking in the north Atlantic and a weak SE ridge, if it wasn't for that high pressure, this may have been a cutter, lol. Thank god for that high pressure to the north otherwise there really would be nothing stopping this from turning ugly. 18z GFS ensembles were pretty wet and a bunch of them got the 1" QPF out into the East Slope. I will say up here if we get 0.5"< of QPF at like 8 to 12 degrees, its going to be some freakin' dry snow, lol. Hoping for ratios. 21z SREFs mean SLP over ACK. 24h mean QPF is 1" over just about all of SNE up into SNH/ME. Congrats, folks. Dare I ask which area of SNE is not an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Vertical Velocity.. This is a quick way to look where the lift is centered. This is for KCON... Lift is centered 500-600mb. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NH&stn=KCON&model=gfs&time=current&field=omeg Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 21z SREFs mean SLP over ACK. 24h mean QPF is 1" over just about all of SNE up into SNH/ME. Up to .75" here from 15z, 1" in se mass, snh and coastal maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not that any of us care much...but the 18z NAM looks to have verified pretty poorly (surprise) even at 0z. GFS/Euro/somewhere in between seemed to be best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Those look good for a front-ender. Still a lot of spread to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Huh man that statement was sig worthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hoping for ratios. Congrats, folks. Dare I ask which area of SNE is not an inch? At the pit? jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 LMAO!!! That reaction is about as nice/tame as you could have concerning such a statement! Our whole profession relies on soundings!! To be fair, Kevin relies on weenie tweets. I can understand how he'd find soundings overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What Brian said. Soundings? We don't need no stinkin' soundings. I've got this for my meteorology:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Weather bell tweets > soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Up to .75" here from 15z, 1" in se mass, snh and coastal maine Is this off of Ewall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Is this off of Ewall? No i have it on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Soundings=Atlantic WeatherBell=Pacific Kevin's paradigm above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Is this off of Ewall? Pretty wide spread within the SREF. Doesn't exude confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Berks are the area not 1" on the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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