Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 well...that was kind of my point. LOL. anyway - for 5 days out, does it matter if it mixes you with sleet for an hour? No..but i just like to have an idea what each run shows to compare to previous runs/ trends..to formulate my own ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 No..but i just like to have an idea what each run shows to compare to previous runs/ trends..to formulate my own ideas i know. it was just a joke anyway. i wasn't trying to be a DB. as modeled, you'd take it and run for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This run is epic win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 i know. it was just a joke anyway. i wasn't trying to be a DB. as modeled, you'd take it and run for your area. LOL..or I could wait until 2:00 and look for myself on e-wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Met elites. Run looks good... Cautious excitement brews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This run is epic win. I got excited for this event when I saw how awesome the Euro Ensembles looked for the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 i know. it was just a joke anyway. i wasn't trying to be a DB. as modeled, you'd take it and run for your area. I laughed. Let's get this sucker into a Miller B type scenario with side of southern stream juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 That's not the point. Clearly a lot will change given the amount of time left, but it is still fun to track and ask questions as to what each model run shows. I thought it was pretty funny actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I got excited for this event when I saw how awesome the Euro Ensembles looked for the last several runs. We shall not pin this thread will Wednesday 12z. Don't want to cause any bad juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I thought it was pretty funny actually It was funny. Just was looking to get a few details because I like to see how it trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 I got excited for this event when I saw how awesome the Euro Ensembles looked for the last several runs. These systems that are anchored in broad-scale mass field changes (tele modalities) can engender confidence at unusual long leads. This system was advertised before the operational runs really had these elaborate depictions, based purely on two factors in my mind: The PNA was relaxing from -1.5 to nearly neutral (mind us, the PNA doesn't have to be "positive" per se, but a 1.5 SD recovery is huge considering how big the PNA domain is), at the same time, the intense gradients were relaxing some... This latter aspect offers compressibility to the flow, and with heights bulging into western N/A, however transiently, the petri-dish (so to speak) is primed. That only speaks to an event -- what that is, yeah ... need to get closer in. We are kind of getting buck-shot from different ensembles and operation runs, some of which may be explained by native biases. Example, the GGEM is notoriously too far west at 120 hours, and viola, here we see it as a westerly outlier. The Euro ensemble mean is thrilling to see that agreement, which really came about 24 to 36 hours ago, actually. One thing folks should be aware... we have a snow pack now, however gossamer that is... It's there nonetheless, and this system -preceding polar/arctic high that comes in Friday is arriving over said pack, and from a source region that boast -3 to -4SD surface cold (Can 10-d A). I think if anything the models almost have to bust too warm with that. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It was funny. Just was looking to get a few details because I like to see how it trends. I don't think you have much to worry about quite honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I got excited for this event when I saw how awesome the Euro Ensembles looked for the last several runs. Yeah the lack of cutters on the ensembles was encouraging the last few runs. It inspires more confidence than when the mean slp is over ACK but you have several outside the BM balanced by a dozen tracks going throgh ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 After being on the outside looking in today, i'll take it !!!! Lock it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I better be shoveling crows.... they jam up the snowblower (I tittered btw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I don't think you have much to worry about quite honestly Yeah looks that way. I was just being sensitive lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This run is epic win. MPM is already noticing there are red flags for qpf issues out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 it's pretty crazy actually. it turns into a hurricane. and then there's a deadly outbreak of the flu, followed by massive famine. and then it looks like it changes to crows, maybe mixed with hawks and eagles. devastating. any turkeys in coastalwx's yard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 lol so by the amount of posts I'm assuming it's not as good up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 it's pretty crazy actually. it turns into a hurricane. and then there's a deadly outbreak of the flu, followed by massive famine. and then it looks like it changes to crows, maybe mixed with hawks and eagles. devastating. More than half the ensembles are not showing the flu outbreak, so I'm trying not to get too invested for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 lol so by the amount of posts I'm assuming it's not as good up here? Nobody lives at 4K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Do you guys want me to change this title to something like "December 14/15 winter storm threat," ...or start a new thread? I believe from what I am looking at and the history supporting, this has graduated from a signal to a threat at this point. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Do you guys want me to change this title to something like "December 14/15 winter storm threat," ...or start a new thread? I believe from what I am looking at and the history supporting, this has graduated from a signal to a threat at this point. Thoughts? I think the title change is cool, I think Bob mentioned to wait until weds for a specific thread for this so not to pooch the juju.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Do you guys want me to change this title to something like "December 14/15 winter storm threat," ...or start a new thread? I believe from what I am looking at and the history supporting, this has graduated from a signal to a threat at this point. Thoughts? Maybe wait 23 hours... but you should start it in any case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Maybe wait 23 hours... but you should start it in any case I opted to change the title as there is plenty of useful information -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The UKMET being seaward may be a red flag; that model has a meridianal bias at this range, which it overcomes to depict that notion. What the heck does this mean? MPM is already noticing there are red flags for qpf issues out this way. Absolutely, developing a twitch. Happy to see the amped up members of the GFS ens. Give me hope that this won't be suppressed. Seriously though, it's good to have something fun to watch for a few days. With a weekend hit, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What the heck does this mean? Absolutely, developing a twitch. Happy to see the amped up members of the GFS ens. Give me hope that this won't be suppressed. Seriously though, it's good to have something fun to watch for a few days. With a weekend hit, ftw. Weekend hits are the best...no concerns about having to get up for work the next day. Can just stare at the flood light and watch the snow fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 What the heck does this mean? It means that the typical over-amplified UKMET ...isn't. Has to do with juggling bias types in the various models. If a model that is typical over-amplified comes in slightly suppressed, that should be an intriguing aspect. In this case, it may signal less support for westerly positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nobody lives at 4K haha I love when people are like this is a huge hut for everyone with one inch of QPF for all...only to find that not to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro ensembles amped up. Over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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