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December 14/15 winter storm threat


Typhoon Tip

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I got excited for this event when I saw how awesome the Euro Ensembles looked for the last several runs. 

 

These systems that are anchored in broad-scale mass field changes (tele modalities) can engender confidence at unusual long leads.  

 

This system was advertised before the operational runs really had these elaborate depictions, based purely on two factors in my mind:  The PNA was relaxing from -1.5 to nearly neutral (mind us, the PNA doesn't have to be "positive" per se, but a 1.5 SD recovery is huge considering how big the PNA domain is), at the same time, the intense gradients were relaxing some... This latter aspect offers compressibility to the flow, and with heights bulging into western N/A, however transiently, the petri-dish (so to speak) is primed.  

 

That only speaks to an event -- what that is, yeah ... need to get closer in.  We are kind of getting buck-shot from different ensembles and operation runs, some of which may be explained by native biases.   Example, the GGEM is notoriously too far west at 120 hours, and viola, here we see it as a westerly outlier.  The Euro ensemble mean is thrilling to see that agreement, which really came about 24 to 36 hours ago, actually.   

 

One thing folks should be aware... we have a snow pack now, however gossamer that is... It's there nonetheless, and this system -preceding polar/arctic high that comes in Friday is arriving over said pack, and from a source region that boast -3 to -4SD surface cold (Can 10-d A).  I think if anything the models almost have to bust too warm with that.   Time will tell... 

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I got excited for this event when I saw how awesome the Euro Ensembles looked for the last several runs. 

 

 

Yeah the lack of cutters on the ensembles was encouraging the last few runs. It inspires more confidence than when the mean slp is over ACK but you have several outside the BM balanced by a dozen tracks going throgh ROC.

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it's pretty crazy actually. it turns into a hurricane. and then there's a deadly outbreak of the flu, followed by massive famine. and then it looks like it changes to crows, maybe mixed with hawks and eagles. devastating. 

any turkeys in coastalwx's yard?

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it's pretty crazy actually. it turns into a hurricane. and then there's a deadly outbreak of the flu, followed by massive famine. and then it looks like it changes to crows, maybe mixed with hawks and eagles. devastating. 

 

More than half the ensembles are not showing the flu outbreak, so I'm trying not to get too invested for now.

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Do you guys want me to change this title to something like "December 14/15 winter storm threat,"  ...or start a new thread?  I believe from what I am looking at and the history supporting, this has graduated from a signal to a threat at this point.   

 

Thoughts?  

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Do you guys want me to change this title to something like "December 14/15 winter storm threat,"  ...or start a new thread?  I believe from what I am looking at and the history supporting, this has graduated from a signal to a threat at this point.   

 

Thoughts?  

 

I think the title change is cool, I think Bob mentioned to wait until weds for a specific thread for this so not to pooch the juju.............lol

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Do you guys want me to change this title to something like "December 14/15 winter storm threat,"  ...or start a new thread?  I believe from what I am looking at and the history supporting, this has graduated from a signal to a threat at this point.   

 

Thoughts?  

Maybe wait 23 hours... but you should start it in any case

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The UKMET being seaward may be a red flag; that model has a meridianal bias at this range, which it overcomes to depict that notion.

 

What the heck does this mean? 

 

MPM is already noticing there are red flags for qpf issues out this way.

 

Absolutely, developing a twitch.

 

  Happy to see the amped up members of the GFS ens.  Give me hope that this won't be suppressed.

 

Seriously though, it's good to have something fun to watch for a few days.  With a weekend hit, ftw.

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What the heck does this mean? 

 

 

Absolutely, developing a twitch.

 

  Happy to see the amped up members of the GFS ens.  Give me hope that this won't be suppressed.

 

Seriously though, it's good to have something fun to watch for a few days.  With a weekend hit, ftw.

Weekend hits are the best...no concerns about having to get up for work the next day.  Can just stare at the flood light and watch the snow fall...

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What the heck does this mean? 

 

 

It means that the typical over-amplified UKMET ...isn't.

 

Has to do with juggling bias types in the various models.   If a model that is typical over-amplified comes in slightly suppressed, that should be an intriguing aspect.  In this case, it may signal less support for westerly positions.  

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